Is the stock market going to tank?

[Cono Este]

First weekly close above 3% in the 30y in a while

The girlfriend has gone from looking at new houses to house remodels with rates up.

This Shit is over in a way we’ve not seen since I graduated college in the nineties.

Even my 50 yr old ass has not lived through a complete mkt cycle like this in bonds.

But my hunch says ripple effect.

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[RoooR]

I'm just here to help cunt up the thread some more
the current run up on prices is complete bullshit
corporations are raping us and blaming high wages supply chain issues and what not

Multiple things can be true. A lot of rich business owners got millions of $. My father in law (who owns a LUMBER yard) got $2M and never shut down. Might that have had some effect on the price of LUMBER?

[RoooR]

Crude Oil as a burnable method of producing energy is going away. Maybe not next year but within 20 years it will make up a fraction of our energy.

LNG won't be that far behind.

Its gonna take a shit load of fossil fuel to build out all that green energy infrastructure.

[4matic]

Balanced fund index down about 13% ytd. I guess that’s not too bad.

[4matic]

The girlfriend has gone from looking at new houses to house remodels with rates up.

This Shit is over in a way we’ve not seen since I graduated college in the nineties.

Even my 50 yr old ass has not lived through a complete mkt cycle like this in bonds.

But my hunch says ripple effect

Yeah, I’ve been buying bonds and have a bloody stump. It really could just unravel with stocks and bonds both accelerating lower.

I do have a recent 15% of assets in equity that’s really hurt the total downside.

Buying EMB was a big mistake. It’s yielding close to 6% forward but currency and macro risk are taking it down. 10% of assets down 2%.

[Bunion 2020]

Its gonna take a shit load of $$$ to build out all that green energy infrastructure.

FIFY

[yeahman]

Its gonna take a shit load of fossil fuel to build out all that green energy infrastructure.

Meantime there will be a major energy crisis due to the fact that we have no transition strategy other than "fossil fuel bad, green energy good." Gonna bite us in the ass bigtime.

[Cono Este]

Yeah, I’ve been buying bonds and have a bloody stump. It really could just unravel with stocks and bonds both accelerating lower.

I do have a recent 15% of assets in equity that’s really hurt the total downside.

Buying EMB was a big mistake. It’s yielding close to 6% forward but currency and macro risk are taking it down. 10% of assets down 2%.

I bought some stocks too, last time was during the Covid sell off. Oh well. My 401 portfolio is akin to the permanent portfolio right now. Almost 25% gold.


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[oldnew_guy]

Meantime there will be a major energy crisis due to the fact that we have no transition strategy other than "fossil fuel bad, green energy good." Gonna bite us in the ass bigtime.

Based on what scientists are saying it’s pretty much to late to have an orderly switch and we just need to throw everything at the wall and yes, it’s going to be painful for countries that have failed to act and plan (coughUSAcough).

The time to plan and implement an orderly transition was 20-30 years ago. We were all warned.

[4matic]

Oil chart looks toppy to me.

Things to consider:

1. I’m driving less and combining trips. anyone else?

2. Airfares are so high I look at prices and don’t even try.

3. Hotel prices are high so I’m not going to drive on $5 gas to stay in a crappy $300 hotel.

4. Throw in lower stock prices and the ingredients are there for a fundamental pullback.

if Ukraine resolves and that’s a big if at least as far as oil supply goes. There will be a rush to sell or hedge. Target $50.

[Toadman]

Oil chart looks toppy to me.

Things to consider:

1. I’m driving less and combining trips. anyone else?

2. Airfares are so high I look at prices and don’t even try.

3. Hotel prices are high so I’m not going to drive on $5 gas to stay in a crappy $300 hotel.

4. Throw in lower stock prices and the ingredients are there for a fundamental pullback.

if Ukraine resolves and that’s a big if at least as far as oil supply goes. There will be a rush to sell or hedge. Target $50.

People want to get out and travel this summer. So, I think they will bite the bullet and spend on gas.
Maybe airfare takes a dip as people start to get on planes and remember how bad it sucks being on a plane full of tourons. Add to that the insult of super high airfares and worse service.
Yep, did a 3 day trip to the coast this past weekend. Hotel's were about 33% more expensive. Painful.
Stocks could use a breather. But fundamentals haven't mattered for 2 years. Will they start to matter? Maybe if earnings start to show declines in line with lost unit sales. Right now it's all masked by higher prices passed on to consumers. How long before consumers tell corporate America to go F off.

[yeahman]

Based on what scientists are saying it’s pretty much to late to have an orderly switch and we just need to throw everything at the wall and yes, it’s going to be painful for countries that have failed to act and plan (coughUSAcough).

The time to plan and implement an orderly transition was 20-30 years ago. We were all warned.

Not going to happen.

[Bunion 2020]

Unfortunately this. We will put it off and deny deny deny until we are in full blown crisis mode and then hope for an amazing technological breakthrough to save us.

There isn't one.

Gasoline is fucking cheap even at these prices. It should be 10 bucks a gallon.

[fastfred]

Everybody be joining unions these days. When baristas start striking and people can't get their $10 vente quad shot latte with extra foam, 3 shots of unicorn swirl and chocolate drizzle on top, you are going to see some serious social unrest. It will make Jan. 6th Capitol riot look like a sight seeing tour.

I can picture the mess already, Boulder Mom's just dropped the kids off at school, she is running late to yoga, her electric suv is low on charge, but she needs that extra boost of caffeine and sugar masquerading as a coffee drink, her last kick of an upper before #mommywinetime at 2:30, before picking the kids up at school and then having to listen to their husband bitch about work all evening, so she lines up with all the other depraved mommies, multitasking with her smug face, phone glued to one hand, and the other hand is waiving hysterically in the air as if giving directions to the world as to how they should act. Finally it's her turn to order and the slurry, tattooed and pierced, unionized, liberal arts degree, hoping to be forgiven student debt laden girl; that this Boulder mommy wishes she was, says the drink is now $12.00 and it's going to take twenty minutes to make because the worker, who is the only one certified by the union to make those drinks is taking his morning shit. So Boulder Mom totally looses her shit on this poor girl.


pro tip
buy a van no more airfare no more cumstained hotel rooms
just diesel at $5.25 a gallon much less than that venti ass 1200 calorie coffee drink

happy friday you miserable fucks hope we don't get nuked over the weekend

[4matic]

Amazon going to announce force reduction?

“As the variant subsided in the second half of the quarter and employees returned from leave, we quickly transitioned from being understaffed to being overstaffed, resulting in lower productivity. This lower productivity added approximately $2 billion in costs compared to last year. In the last few weeks of the quarter and into April, we've seen productivity improvements across the network, and we expect to reduce these cost headwinds in Q2. The last issue relates to our fixed cost leverage.”

5% of their work force is 50k jobs. They can’t be alone?

[summit]

Stocks could use a breather. But fundamentals haven't mattered for 2 years. Will they start to matter? Maybe if earnings start to show declines in line with lost unit sales. Right now it's all masked by higher prices passed on to consumers. How long before consumers tell corporate America to go F off.

When their incomes don't rise with the prices and they can't afford to buy as much shit.

[J. Barron DeJong]

When their incomes don't rise with the prices and they can't afford to buy as much shit.

Which could be any time now:



https://jabberwocking.com/worker-pay...e-yes-plummet/

[NakedShorts]

International Energy Agency (IEA) doesn't seem to agree

[NakedShorts]

Shh!

[4matic]

Yield on the 10y is more than double the SPY now.

Afaict ratio hasn’t been this high since 2008 pre gfc. It was fairly normal ratio until then.

[BobMc]

I’m still here just doing my usual shit. I don’t really care about market macro trends, I’ve got a ten year timeline so I’m buying the stuff that becomes a bargain compared to what I already own. Ie, if I’m underwater on something, I buy more.

Picked up 100 more shares of ACCD on a massive sell off, paid $5.20/per. Last summer I sold 50 shares at $49/per, don’t think they’ll get back to there but hope I can recoup my losses on them. Between them, SOFI, and CMPS my foray into tech/growth hasn’t paid off. I still have the faith, been down on a lot of other shit that came back…

I’ve grown a bit of cash in my account, debating whether to pile it into AAPL or continue with the high dividend income type stuff. Pipeline stocks yielding 5%+ are hard to turn down, most of them are flush with cash and increasing distributions.

Even though my cost basis on XOM is at $42.73 I’m thinking of going with Lee and buying more. They’ve got a number of ships pumping oil off the coast of Guyana and recently reported three new discoveries. Even while they report less capex they seem to be opening positions to increase production. They sold leases in the North Sea last year and are apparently consolidating exploration to Guyana.

The US shale play is one of the hottest things, I’ve got a bit of exposure but am wondering whether a tar sands play might be profitable? There are a number of Canadian companies trading cheaply that have a lot of leases…

[rod9301]

The good thing about xom is that they seem committed to maintain their dividend, only 4 percent now, so even if the stock drops a lot, which eventually it will, you're paid to wait till it recovers.

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[4matic]

The good thing about xom is that they seem committed to maintain their dividend, only 4 percent now, so even if the stock drops a lot, which eventually it will, you're paid to wait till it recovers.

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At 4% you’re not much higher yield than a 20yr treasury with no risk.
Dividends can’t be the compelling reason to own stocks right now. Look at that disaster VZ.

[Ski to Be]

I have been getting my ass kicked by growth stocks. I was lucky the last 10 years and had been primarily investing in Tesla & Amazon. I sold all of my Tesla stock last spring when it topped $800. I kind of regret that now. I took all of the Tesla $ and put it into safer stocks and have been taking losses but pretty sure most everyone else has as well. I suspect a major correction is coming in the near future and I will try to pounce on some growth stocks that have been beaten up that have good fundamentals. Playing the long game to cash out in 15 to 20 years.

[rod9301]

At 4% you’re not much higher yield than a 20yr treasury with no risk.
Dividends can’t be the compelling reason to own stocks right now. Look at that disaster VZ.

Yeah, but with interest rates going up and inflation, the 20 year doesn't look so good.

My point is that of xom goes down, which it will, you don't have to sell, just wait till it goes back up, and collect the dividend.

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