Real Estate Crash thread

[Supermoon]

I worked in an office in Chinatown near the river in Portland and when the Red Cross came to do a disaster preparedness seminar for my company they said, “normally we tell people to bring an emergency bag to work, but for this building, in this part of town, just hope you’re at home when it hits.”

So that was comforting. Even our newest bridges aren’t built for the 9+ earthquake that is possible.

All of the rocks on Mt Hood are only like 10,000 years old. Making it a very active volcano. So if the earthquake doesn’t get us, the lahar will.

[Tips^Up]

Cities/towns/municipalities are not politically in favor of commercial to residential conversions. They collect the lionshare of their income from sales tax (at least in Colorado). I've yet to hear a politician suggest they bring in less revenue.

[nickwm21]

Yeah AR, what you got?

As for Turkey, I've read that in California the code isn't going to do much if a big one hits, because as you said represents "the cheapest, least safe...building you can legally build." And parts of it are going to look like Turkey when it happens. What do you think ::::::? Not my lane of course, so just wondering.

Design case for CA seismic code is for the structure to be “survivable” during a 7.0 quake (but not necessarily operational after.) Buildings with more “importance” get a higher factor of safety applied to the structural design (hospitals, schools, fire stations, etc…). Hospitals in particular have the highest importance factor and been forced to go through seismic retrofits by the state. They are designed to run off-grid for 72 hours after a quake (massive diesel, sewage, water, O2 tanks…).


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[altasnob]

When there are no standards, we get Turkey.

How's the homeless situation in Turkey compared to Portland?

Want specific examples of codes that could be relaxed? In my 105 year old home, the previous owner ripped out the knob and tube and modernized the electrical system. But it was all unpermitted and he stuck the outlets in the wood baseboard trim. I understand this is not to code as they are supposed to be up on the wall, affixed to a stud. But that would require cutting into the lath and plaster walls, which is a huge pain and hard to get an accurate cut without cracking the entire wall. So he problem solved and affixed them to the baseboard, in a modern outlet box, which seems fine to me.

My third floor is a finished attic with 6'10" ceilings. If you ask the city, it is an uninhabitable space because you need 7 foot ceilings. But people have been using those bedrooms for 100 years. I am afraid to remodel (legally) because I am afraid the city will be strict on that 7 foot rule and not sure I can raise the ceiling any.

I have original single pane windows. If I ever wanted to replace them I would have to butcher the window frames to fulfill modern egress requirements. So they are never getting replaced (besides, I like the original windows).

These are the issues I was talking about where we could take a more pragmatic approach. Maybe allow people to apply for a code variance on these older buildings to make it easier and cheaper to legally remodel them.

[muted reborn]

Design case for CA seismic code is for the structure to be “survivable” during a 7.0 quake (but not necessarily operational after.) Buildings with more “importance” get a higher factor of safety applied to the structural design (hospitals, schools, fire stations, etc…). Hospitals in particular have the highest importance factor and been forced to go through seismic retrofits by the state. They are designed to run off-grid for 72 hours after a quake (massive diesel, sewage, water, O2 tanks…).


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What do you think will happen when The Big One hits then? Which is AFAIK is referring to 7.8 or higher. Will ones built to 7.0 code have widespread collapses if it's an 8.0? If not, what size will make new buildings crumble? And there's lotsa old buildings not built to 7.0 standards that will be destroyed, I think.

[Supermoon]

What do you think will happen when The Big One hits then? Which is AFAIK is referring to 7.8 or higher. Will ones built to 7.0 code have widespread collapses if it's an 8.0? If not, what size will make new buildings crumble? And there's lotsa old buildings not built to 7.0 standards that will be destroyed, I think.

California earthquakes along San Andreas are different than the ones in Cascadia. I think San Adreas is unlikely to go to a 7.0 or higher since it’s a slip fault and can store less energy than the subduction zone in the PNW. (I took a geology class once so I sort of remember all of this stuff I think)

[muted reborn]

California earthquakes along San Andreas are different than the ones in Cascadia. I think San Adreas is unlikely to go to a 7.0 or higher since it’s a slip fault and can store less energy than the subduction zone in the PNW. (I took a geology class once so I sort of remember all of this stuff I think)

"The largest historical earthquake on the northern San Andreas was the 1906 magnitude 7.9 earthquake. In 1857 the Fort Tejon earthquake occurred on the southern San Andreas fault; it is believed to have had a magnitude of about 7.9 as well. Computer models show that the San Andreas fault is capable of producing earthquakes up to about magnitude 8.3."

[::: :::]

How's the homeless situation in Turkey compared to Portland?

it’s pretty shitty at the moment…jfc, really?

Want specific examples of codes that could be relaxed? In my 105 year old home, the previous owner ripped out the knob and tube and modernized the electrical system. But it was all unpermitted and he stuck the outlets in the wood baseboard trim. I understand this is not to code as they are supposed to be up on the wall, affixed to a stud. But that would require cutting into the lath and plaster walls, which is a huge pain and hard to get an accurate cut without cracking the entire wall. So he problem solved and affixed them to the baseboard, in a modern outlet box, which seems fine to me.

My third floor is a finished attic with 6'10" ceilings. If you ask the city, it is an uninhabitable space because you need 7 foot ceilings. But people have been using those bedrooms for 100 years. I am afraid to remodel (legally) because I am afraid the city will be strict on that 7 foot rule and not sure I can raise the ceiling any.

I have original single pane windows. If I ever wanted to replace them I would have to butcher the window frames to fulfill modern egress requirements. So they are never getting replaced (besides, I like the original windows).

These are the issues I was talking about where we could take a more pragmatic approach. Maybe allow people to apply for a code variance on these older buildings to make it easier and cheaper to legally remodel them.

You may want to talk to a pro and probably your local jurisdiction. You will likely be surprised at what sort of good help you can get to solve these issues (all solvable). I think you will find there are already considerations for grandfathered conditions.

[Supermoon]

"The largest historical earthquake on the northern San Andreas was the 1906 magnitude 7.9 earthquake. In 1857 the Fort Tejon earthquake occurred on the southern San Andreas fault; it is believed to have had a magnitude of about 7.9 as well. Computer models show that the San Andreas fault is capable of producing earthquakes up to about magnitude 8.3."

Oh interesting. Still not as bad as the upper end of Cascadia but still way up there.

[S_jenks]

So amidst all of this PNW talk, I figure this might be a good time to mention that my wife and I are moving to Olympia in May and are looking at a first house there.

Our timeline puts us there for 4-5 years before we'd move again. Perhaps an opportunity to buy/sell before the volcanoes all blow?

[::: :::]

As an example of one issue for the prospective commercial office building renovated to residential: it would most likely be required to be seismically upgraded because residential is higher hazard classification.


B is office
R-1 is for short stay traditional hotels
R-2 is for apartments or long stay hotels
R-3 is at the bottom because it is for small population congregate living (<16)
[portland code, but sim to other local codes]

[garyfromterrace]

So amidst all of this PNW talk, I figure this might be a good time to mention that my wife and I are moving to Olympia in May...

Are you crazy????Yer gonna die!!!!!

[AdironRider]

Yeah AR, what you got?

As for Turkey, I've read that in California the code isn't going to do much if a big one hits, because as you said represents "the cheapest, least safe...building you can legally build." And parts of it are going to look like Turkey when it happens. What do you think ::::::? Not my lane of course, so just wondering.

Ok, let’s start with basically the entirety of the 2022 CA energy code revisions, absolutely none of which does anything to improve the inherent safety of a building.

Architects projecting examples like Turkey as if that is guaranteed to happen if you don’t preview a house for EVs is laughable.

[fastfred]

yesterdays denver post

article 1) the state legislature wants to start rent control laws across the state so my take is they can raise your taxes but you can't raise the rent

article 2) talks about all the shit boxes built pre 1990's that the poor live in typically built with no fire walls no fire suppression systems no strobe or sounders hell most don't even have a working smoke alarm in the unit the gov't wants to force all the owners of these buildings to upgrade all their life and safety systems

my hot take is gov't can't get out of it's own way so I own a shit hole building your going to force me to make a million dollars in safety upgrades but I can't raise the rent to cover those upgrade costs?

I looked at a condo building years ago built in the late 60's or early 70's units start around 700k it's a shit box in downtown breckenridge I was up in the attic and blown away I could see from one end to the other of this 300 ft long building one unit sparks up the whole roof is going to go up in seconds you'd think people with that much money invested would some sort of fire suppression system in the attic but no that'd cost alot of money and raise hoa dues

[::: :::]

Ok, let’s start with basically the entirety of the 2022 CA energy code revisions, absolutely none of which does anything to improve the inherent safety of a building.

From the insistent EVs-don’t-pencil guy

Architects projecting examples like Turkey as if that is guaranteed to happen if you don’t preview a house for EVs is laughable.

Laughable indeed…if that was what was said. But it wasn’t, was it?

[AdironRider]

You kept bringing Turkey up to refute my point champ, so yes, you did say it.

And yes, EV's don't pencil, and no amount of government wishmaking via building code is going to help that matter. People wonder why we don't have affordable housing, then add thousands of dollars in electrical work to all new builds so they can accommodate 60k+ vehicles. And that is just one example of superfluous code adding cost and complexity, which you said didn't exist.

Again, you don't give a shit because you'll just collect 8% (or more perhaps) of all these additional costs regardless of their actual use.

[liv2ski]

This is about the PNW but imo is must reading. This motherfucker is late now: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...really-big-one

After reading that yesterday I was awake around 2 hours last night thinking how a Tsunami is going to drowned us down the road. I better look into flood insurance.

[fastfred]

^^^ don't even get started on the "green building" energy codes building houses so tight they don't breath and need mechanical air exchanges
it's the biggest crock of shit ever
homes need to breath I am not a fan of the zip wall system nothing like putting yourself in a chemical bubble

meanwhile to get the insulation codes we blow 10,000 lbs of petroleum products into a new 6000 sq ft home
how is that green building?

shit has gone too far
and yeah people wonder why housing costs so much

[altasnob]

it’s pretty shitty at the moment…jfc, really?

Ya, the Portland's homeless to Turkey comparison is bad given the current situation. But let's compare Portland to Mexico City. Lots of factors contribute to Portland's homeless crisis but one reason Mexico City has so few homeless is lax building regulations. There is an effect to a city like Portland's high regulatory structure.

The picture painted to me by the media, and contractors I speak to, is that cost of construction is highest in the Seattle, Portland, San Francisco's of the world. It is cheaper in the surrounding cities. Even cheaper on the other side of the mountains, and of course even cheaper by the time you get to Nebraska. Lots of factors play into this but high amounts of regulation and bureaucracy is a major factor. Some contractors I speak to refuse to do business within the city of Seattle due to the all the hoops they have to jump through. It sucks when people die in earthquakes but it also sucks when our cities are filled with homeles

An article a few days ago profiled a Tacoma plumber who makes 140-160k a year with nothing more than a high school degree. Working out pretty good for him when all these tech workers are getting laid off and he makes nearly as much with rock solid job security:

https://www.seattletimes.com/pacific...er-makes-140k/

[highangle]

So your sources are unlicensed contractors who can't meet Seattle bonding requirements, and they're outraged it cost more to get a job done in a big glass & steel city than on the frontiers of urban sprawl?

[altasnob]

my hot take is gov't can't get out of it's own way so I own a shit hole building your going to force me to make a million dollars in safety upgrades but I can't raise the rent to cover those upgrade costs?

It's leftist populism. Watch out, because it is rampant in Seattle and it is bound to spread to other cities in the West, like Denver. It's already taken over Aspen.

[half-fast]

Cities/towns/municipalities are not politically in favor of commercial to residential conversions. They collect the lionshare of their income from sales tax (at least in Colorado). I've yet to hear a politician suggest they bring in less revenue.

Most if not all of the conversions here were vacant buildings

[fastfred]

Y

An article a few days ago profiled a Tacoma plumber who makes 140-160k a year with nothing more than a high school degree. Working out pretty good for him when all these tech workers are getting laid off and he makes nearly as much with rock solid job security:

https://www.seattletimes.com/pacific...er-makes-140k/

big difference between hitting enter all day on the computer key board making that money or spending half your day on your knees twisting and turning
you ever been working on a drain line in a condo building where you asked everyone not to use any water for an hour gave plenty of notice and people don't give two shits literally and hear the water starting to run so you get ready to catch the sludge in bucket and the other half is on you and the floor? Sounds awesome planning on doing that again later this week

I think most people couldn't handle raw sewage just cause your turds go in the toilet whole doesn't mean they run down the pipe in one piece

[altasnob]

So your sources are unlicensed contractors who can't meet Seattle bonding requirements, and they're outraged it cost more to get a job done in a big glass & steel city than on the frontiers of urban sprawl? yawn

No, I'm talking to foundation guys who run big companies. They will surely do everything permitted if that's what I want to do. But they also seem more than willing to go wild west if that's what I want. Then they share anecdotal stories of their friends in other sectors of the business.

My impression in these big, expensive cities is that the big developers can comply with all the rules because they have to, and have economies of scale. But regular home owners are overwhelmed. Same for mom and pop landlords. I see lots of really run down old homes around here despite the real estate price explosion in the last few years.

[::: :::]

Lol
Fred & AR Do you all understand you are the reason regulations exist?
Getting dragged kicking and screaming into the future, pretending you understand the issues beyond measuring anything via dollars