Is the stock market going to tank?

[Kevo]

Thanks all. Good info.

My brother has access because he is on a corporate board with a PE partner. Sounds very much like they don't need money.

Still not sure about the whole lack of liquidity piece and the lack of diversification also makes me a bit concerned.

[Brock Landers]

Thanks all. Good info.

My brother has access because he is on a corporate board with a PE partner. Sounds very much like they don't need money.

Still not sure about the whole lack of liquidity piece and the lack of diversification also makes me a bit concerned.

The lack of liquidity and diversification is a “you” thing. It doesnt get much different with a big national white glove PE firm- like it seems some would rather have- greasing them.

It’s kind of simple though on the liquidity side. Can you spare whatever the buy in is for x years. Can you spare 35% of that forever. Do you need to make the x % you think they can get you, or are your current investments not going to make your goals.

If they have some sort of specialty in your area, or in a niche real estate market, that would interest me. Not sure why or how your bro got in but it a possibility and opportunity to think about. To the extent everyone on the thread seems anti… the PE firm didn’t reach out to him or solicit people. His brother had a connection and thought he could get him connected. They didn’t put an ad up in Powder or Thrasher Magazine. Go back to your shanties and Barron’s articles.

[Cono Este]

You get out of stocks entirely or the one you were referring to?

I sold 20% of my stock holdings this week focusing on international

I feel like if the war continues, we aren't going good places economically and things will go down, then by back in. If there is peace then there are stocks that will be undervalued to buy.

I think retirement funds need to be left alone. But if you have cash or are looking to take profits this is a decent run up.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Brock Landers]

I think retirement funds need to be left alone. But if you have cash or are looking to take profits this is a decent run up.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Just curious, it’s been a decent run up for ~13 years. And people/pundits/ whoever have been saying the same thing for 4, 5, 7, 9 years. What now makes it any different aside from it’s been a while or were due?

I don’t agree or disagree just looking for more perspective or thoughts.

[4matic]

5/10 Yield curve just inverted after Powell comments

[LeeLau]

Thanks all. Good info.

My brother has access because he is on a corporate board with a PE partner. Sounds very much like they don't need money.

Still not sure about the whole lack of liquidity piece and the lack of diversification also makes me a bit concerned.

Missed this question.

I've not participated in PE deals. I've put money into private deals and PIPEs (private investments in public entities). Whenever I've done so I've written the money invested down to zero in my mind. I've also invested in the people. Not the story behind the investment or the investment docs. Completely agree as to other comments about illiquidity and risk-concentration.

[shera]

I had a random thought - can rising energy prices act in the same way as rising interest rates? Increasing the cost of money and the cost of energy can both act as brakes, right? How does that play into inflation? Would appreciate any links to articles discussing the topic.

[summit]

I had a random thought - can rising energy prices act in the same way as rising interest rates? Increasing the cost of money and the cost of energy can both act as brakes, right? How does that play into inflation? Would appreciate any links to articles discussing the topic.

I think this speaks to that? https://www.reuters.com/business/inf...th-2022-03-22/

[shera]

I think this speaks to that? https://www.reuters.com/business/inf...th-2022-03-22/

Thanks A, but I got the dread "You have reached your article limit". Could you post the content please?

[summit]

Thanks A, but I got the dread "You have reached your article limit". Could you post the content please?

"JPMorgan survey shows a record high 86% of its clients planned to raise equity exposure. It is unclear if those plans will have come unstuck after the latest spurt in oil and commodity, and galloping inflation expectations.

The bank itself is warning central banks face a stark choice --to "live with energy-driven inflation or kill off economic growth".

The rise in five-year Treasury "breakevens" to 3.5% is alarming, coming as it does on the heels of the Federal Reserve's interest rate liftoff and money markets pricing nearly 200 basis points of increases this year alone .

So breakevens, essentially bond markets' view of where inflation may be in five years time, have responded to policy tightening signals by moving even higher . While five-year inflation swaps, possibly a more reliable gauge, are at 2.3%, that's still above the Fed's target.

Fed boss Jerome Powell came out swinging on Monday, with a pledge of 50 bps moves if needed. Money markets also now see a roughly 3% Fed funds rate by Sept. 2023, compared to a 2.1% pricing at the start of March .

In short, chances are the Fed -- and other central banks -- will act aggressively to stamp out inflation which they now see as racing away from them.

Emerging market central banks know that feeling of losing control of inflation -- Hungary should on Tuesday raise rates by 100 bps, while Brazil has raised rates by almost 10 percentage points this cycle and is still signalling more.

So Wall Street futures are flat after Monday's slide while Europe is lower. Brent crude is almost at $120 a barrel. And listen out for raft of Fed and ECB speakers later in the day."

I finally broke down and registered a throwaway email account

[LeeLau]

Covered BYND to take profit, For skibird - covered RIVN also for a loss as I feel the market dead cat bounce is on and I fear the cult-status.

For Bob - leaving GGPI alone but am hoping to sell 15C calls on it on a monthly basis. It intermittently gets a pump and I don't want to sell calls any lower and accidentally get assigned. I'm long the stock and not warrants fwiw.

For rod - I had March 18 RSX calls and puts sold and thought they would get assigned. Somehow my 6P got assigned and I ended up buying shares at $ 6 which surprised me as RSX is halted. I suppose the OCC rules permit settlement and my counterparty manually exercised their put. Learned something new there.

Started selling RIOT covered calls again. Got assigned HIVE via sold covered calls so lost my underlying stock which is fine as I felt my exposure to crypto miners was too high.

Am trying to buy some SHOP but would ideally like lower prices.

[rod9301]

My rsx short is jan 23 and both , calls and puts, have made a lot of money, on paper. I have them too offset Gazprom nilsy and lukoy, which are untradable.
Fuck if i know what will happen, but when Russian stocks trade again, I'm a buyer.

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

[Cono Este]

Just curious, it’s been a decent run up for ~13 years. And people/pundits/ whoever have been saying the same thing for 4, 5, 7, 9 years. What now makes it any different aside from it’s been a while or were due?

I don’t agree or disagree just looking for more perspective or thoughts.

Sell when you can not when you have too.

There are people in here who were posting their sales during the Covid crash. That’s not a good time to sell. Doctors and dentists slamming their lockers shut at the club. Obviously at 70 they own too much. Nothing is free.

But that’s obvious. People who bought in 2001 waited a long time to break even. The sequence of returns after retirement matter, many people bled to death and then finally panicked in 2008.

It happens, and it will happen again. If you are over 55, and have ridden this up, or are not in it for the long haul, then yes, sell some.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[LeeLau]

Trying to scale into ENB Enbridge on the Tse. NatGas play. 9% yield. 1% per month via covered calls.

[gravitylover]

^ I was going to ask what some of the best gas plays would be this week. I don't have much left to throw at it but every little bit, right?

[Brock Landers]

Enbridge is more pipeline than a nat gas play. Range Recources, Antero, EQT are more pure play gas. I bought rrc at $18ish years ago, rode it down to like $3 now waiting to bail. Not sure what I’m waiting on actually.

[LeeLau]

Enbridge is more pipeline than a nat gas play. Range Recources, Antero, EQT are more pure play gas. I bought rrc at $18ish years ago, rode it down to like $3 now waiting to bail. Not sure what I’m waiting on actually.

Very true. I'm targeting them because they're a cash flow stream with NatGas exposure. With infrastructure they're also a basic oligopoly and i like that. If I wanted pure plays I'd even consider former stranded assets like Chesapeake

[gravitylover]

I guess I kinda used the wrong term, I wasn't thinking pure gas plays but rather a picks and shovels option. Pipelines, LNG terminals etc. The stuff needed to get the gas to port so it can be exported since that looks to me like it's going to be critical to get the gas to Europe as they shut off the Russian supply lines.

[LeeLau]

I guess I kinda used the wrong term, I wasn't thinking pure gas plays but rather a picks and shovels option. Pipelines, LNG terminals etc. The stuff needed to get the gas to port so it can be exported since that looks to me like it's going to be critical to get the gas to Europe as they shut off the Russian supply lines.

That's commonly called "infrastructure" fyi. Enbridge is a classic infrastructure play.

Total Energies which operates in EU and has some Russia stranded assets also has NatGas fields and infrastructure. I started a small position in them too https://totalenergies.com/news/natur...otals-strategy

[Brock Landers]

I guess I kinda used the wrong term, I wasn't thinking pure gas plays but rather a picks and shovels option. Pipelines, LNG terminals etc. The stuff needed to get the gas to port so it can be exported since that looks to me like it's going to be critical to get the gas to Europe as they shut off the Russian supply lines.

The pipelines are pretty easy investment to figure- can look at how they respond to changes in commodity price (if much at all), their yields, and the cash they earn to justify that yield. The differentiator for me (for Williams Cos and Kinder Morgan) was their growth profile in areas like the northeast US.

Cheniere is the largest LNG player and may be what you’re looking for. Total Energies (formerly known as…Total…) is growing their LNG footprint but is still a large diversified oil company like RDS or Exxon (who also have significant NG/LNG assets).

[BobMc]

Lee, if you're looking into ENB take a look at EPD. ENB is only yielding 5.8%, EPD is yielding 7.3%. The Duncan's have owned EPD since inception and the family owns a large portion of the outstanding stock, they've been good stewards and look out for the company well. EPD acquired Navitas Midstream last month to gain more exposure in the Permian basin. They print money and cover the distributions easily, they've also been aggressively buying back shares on dips.

The only "downfall" is they issue a K-1. My wife does our taxes and we have to fill out a K-1 for our business already so it's no big deal for us.

[LeeLau]

Thx Bob . EPD looks attractive too from the perspective of dividends and liquid enough options for covered calls

Brock - also agreed (getting to be a habit). Am looking at Total as a complement to XOM in the port of legacy oil/gas assets but with a bit of exposure to Euro rotation away from Russia and less so for it's NatGas holdings

[BobMc]

Gravity, if you’re looking at gas plays to take advantage of the Russia situation I think you may be late to the boat. If you look at pretty much any gas play company they’re up markedly since the start of the Ukraine war.

If you think this may go on for a while or spark more LNG shipping you may want to look at FLNG. They have a fleet of 13 LNG tanker ships, you can find out where they are all at via vesselfinder.com. Their ships are all newish builds with four of them using the newest propulsion technologies. They recently raised their dividend so even though the share price has risen they still yield handsomely…

When I started this whole investing in the stock market thing it was April of 2020, I bought covid battered stuff the first year and did pretty well. The next year I focused on high yields as the bargains were harder to find. This led me to midstreams and reits, both offer high yields and rather stable share prices. I’ve done pretty well with midstreams, taking advantage of dividend reinvestments. I’ve worked my way up to 758 shares of EPD, this DRIP’s me almost 14 shares per quarter. I also own 100+ shares of ET, MPLX, MMP, and DCP. All of these fit into my 10 year plan to have a dividend/distribution related income for retirement. You hear a lot of chatter about how midstream companies will have trouble building more infrastructure in modern political environments, I’ve always figured that makes the ones already in the ground that much more valuable. (Same as reits, to a point.)

This year I’ve pivoted as the market has changed, growth stocks are now the battered stocks as bond yields rise. I’m not quite as bullish on CMPS as I once was, but not selling my 200 shares. I’ve been selling puts on ACCD and SOFI, hoping to ease in on low prices and not caring if I don’t while keeping the premium. I’ve been buying AAPL on any dips and now have a huge position of 17 shares, heh.

Whatever you decide to invest in I’m wholeheartedly into the camp of researching it well. Today’s internet makes it pretty easy to not only see the balance sheet of companies, (Admittedly not what I can decipher, rely on trusted others.) but you can also use the internet to make sure they are telling the truth about new constructions or acquisitions. I started buying EPD in late 2020, I watched them on Google maps working on new facilities. I’ve also held off on buying into companies because I couldn’t verify their claims.

Or, just buy into SPY, or NDAQ. Heh.

[MTT]

[406]

I lol every post, but the company is beating the index over the last year, so jokes on who?