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  1. #18476
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    35,360
    Bring it on, Omicron, we ain’t skeered

    https://www.livescience.com/breakthr...immunity-boost
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  2. #18477
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    northern BC
    Posts
    30,881
    SO what has happened to the delta variant, where did it go is the question in my mind ?
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  3. #18478
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    527
    I can't seem to find any data on the number of cases/hospitalizations/deaths for Omicron in vaccinated vs unvaccinated, other than the day it first hit and it was like 40 people and 75% of the positives were vaccinated. Surely by now there are tens of thousands of cases.



    Delta variant is still here, it is just about to get outcompeted by Omicron and no longer be the dominant strain going around. Here's some good graphs, you can see how it is now the dominant strain in South Africa, but Delta is still there.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...-update-dec-17


    Strains hang around as long as they can find enough hosts. The original variant probably is still out there somewhere for a tiny fraction of a percent of new cases or so.
    Last edited by Garbowski; 12-17-2021 at 10:24 PM.

  4. #18479
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    valley of the heart's delight
    Posts
    2,474
    Hospitalizations in omicron. "Wait a couple weeks." Trouble is it's early, and with a rapid case rise, it's tough to figure it out from the graphs. Somebody needs to carefully trace a cohort of infected people to see the outcomes. I notice quite a few experts are walking away from the early optimism. The phrasing is more along the lines of we don't have any data to support it's less virulent than delta. The limited available data is from South Africa (example), a young population where most recovered from an earlier Covid infection. My sources for this are TWiV and UCSF.
    10/01/2012 Site was upgraded to 300 baud.

  5. #18480
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    The Bull City
    Posts
    14,003
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  6. #18481
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491

  7. #18482
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    A LSD Steakhouse somewhere in the Wasatch
    Posts
    13,234
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Fuck me, skiing all of a sudden is in doubt, again.
    seems to me as long as the internet still works
    youre blessed heart will be fine
    "When the child was a child it waited patiently for the first snow and it still does"- Van "The Man" Morrison
    "I find I have already had my reward, in the doing of the thing" - Buzz Holmstrom
    "THIS IS WHAT WE DO"-AML -ski on in eternal peace
    "I have posted in here but haven't read it carefully with my trusty PoliAsshat antenna on."-DipshitDanno

  8. #18483
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    8,318
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Who can read that and not smile at the thought of some future cameo on Curb Your Enthusiasm?
    A woman came up to me and said "I'd like to poison your mind
    with wrong ideas that appeal to you, though I am not unkind."

  9. #18484
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    27,308
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Who can read that and not smile at the thought of some future cameo on Curb Your Enthusiasm?
    She dumped Ted Danson for Kennedy?

  10. #18485
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Yeah, and Larry can ask him about that heroin possession conviction way back.

  11. #18486
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    She dumped Ted Danson for Kennedy?
    Huge fucking Xmas family parties, if that's her thing.

  12. #18487
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    not there
    Posts
    1,558


    i think this thread needs some music

  13. #18488
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    I can still smell Poutine.
    Posts
    24,506
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    RFK Jr is a ginormous POS.

  14. #18489
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    11,146
    If you rearrange the letters of “delta + omicron” you get “media control”

    Or you can get “erotic almond”

    Do what you want with this information

  15. #18490
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Vancouver, BC
    Posts
    1,332
    It will be really interesting to see how Omicron impacts the health outcomes of the vaxxed and unvaxxed. It’s obviously spreading through both groups fairly easily just based on the numbers.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  16. #18491
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    northern BC
    Posts
    30,881
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    a Buddy of mine went to school with that Kennedy sez he had a connection to THE purest mescaline
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  17. #18492
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Quote Originally Posted by XXX-er View Post
    a Buddy of mine went to school with that Kennedy sez he had a connection to THE purest mescaline
    Yeah, I'm old enough to remember them as kids and teenagers. Super druggies. As you said, Kennedy quality stuff, too. Except for the Heroin. They had to scrounge around in the ghetto for it, just like us schmucks.

  18. #18493
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    People's Republic of OB
    Posts
    4,407
    Got boosted yesterday, Moderna after initial shots were Pfizer. Pretty sore arm overnight and today so far, but not as bad as Pfizer #1. Other than that so far so good.

    Getting in to get this was a bit of a shit show. Appointments all seemed to be weeks out, but some locations were listed as accepting walk ins. What they didn't say is that they would try to squeeze walk ins in between those with appointments. Made for long waits and they kept announcing you're not guaranteed to even get a shot if all the appointments show up. They want people to get shots/boosters but still not making it easy.

  19. #18494
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    northern BC
    Posts
    30,881
    Quote Originally Posted by evdog View Post
    Got boosted yesterday, Moderna after initial shots were Pfizer. Pretty sore arm overnight and today so far, but not as bad as Pfizer #1. Other than that so far so good.

    .
    I had that same ^^ sequence of shots and experienced just a sore arm the day after same as you report

    the BC HC system is running it up here, the booking and getting in was quick n easy
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  20. #18495
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    314
    Including the remaining 7,597 reinfections in the case overview pushes today's case figure to 10,454 — 7,597 are the reinfections being added and 2,857 are new cases. As the pandemic stretches past 20 months, some people have become infected with COVID-19 more than once. This is called a reinfection.

    226,972 laboratory-confirmed breakthrough cases of COVID-19 among fully-vaccinated people in New York State, which corresponds to 1.8% of the population of fully-vaccinated people 12-years

    There was been 10,454 reinfections in the US of covid.
    There has been 226,972 breakthrough cases of covid in ny state alone.

    Not recognizing Natural immunity is strange in the mandate. Saying the vaccine offers better protection then natural immunity even stranger.

  21. #18496
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Location
    Greg_o
    Posts
    2,641
    Quote Originally Posted by XXX-er View Post
    I had that same ^^ sequence of shots and experienced just a sore arm the day after same as you report

    the BC HC system is running it up here, the booking and getting in was quick n easy
    Send some of their exports over to Ontario please.

  22. #18497
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Squaw valley
    Posts
    4,639
    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    altasnob's Math and assumptions look fine to me. A few months ago I was going to post something similar, along with an estimate of how long till we reach herd immunity, I also found a CDC report that used the 4x number. A National Academy of Sciences report used 2x. Both said these multipliers are uncertain, as altasnob noted. The reasoning about how many of the natural cases to assign to the vaxxed / unvaxxed is also fine and has uncertainties. So the 72 million guess is fine. My guess is 4x is too high, so the Covid naive population is larger.

    If 72 million is correct, we could guess that about 80% of us have some level of immunity. We could correct this using estimates of actual immunity for the various combinations of vaxxed and infected (e.g. if vax or infection tend to provide 70% protection, then the estimated immunity becomes 70% of 80% equals 56%). Once we've calculated a current estimated population immunity, we can compare that to herd immunity estimates to see how close we are. The current vax and infection rates can then project when we reach herd immunity (or if it is possible with current countermeasures). Keeping in mind that we need to exceed the herd immunity threshold for cases to decline. Also keeping in mind that a heterogeneous population may spread disease better then the homogeneous population assumed in the herd immunity theory.

    My understanding is I'm supposed to call altasnob a silly name. Sorry can't think of one. Related, there's this notion that we must condemn anyone with a different pandemic POV. Humans die on strange emotional hills. Some day the pandemic will pass, and many of these people can be forgiven then and are otherwise fine friends. For now, the unreasonable ones ought to stay away
    There's no herd immunity. Look at omicron, lots of vaccinated or people that previously had it, get sick.

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

  23. #18498
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    21,938
    Most currently deployed monoclonal antibodies are useless against Omicron.

    Boosters bring Pfizer up to ~75% effectiveness at protecting against infection from Omicron vs <40% for 6+ mo after 2nd dose. Unboosted Moderna may be less effective than Pfizer. People who had breakthrough infections or vaccination after infection may be extremely immune.

    If you had COVID, the reinfection risk is drastically increased by Omicron with your protection probably reduced 3-6X.Over half of all documented COVID reinfection in the entire 2 year pandemic in South Africa occurred in the last few weeks.

    It looks like Omicron is no less virulent than previous variants.

    Fuck Omicron.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  24. #18499
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    27,308
    Quote Originally Posted by teletech View Post
    Not recognizing Natural immunity is strange in the mandate. Saying the vaccine offers better protection then natural immunity even stranger.
    No it isn't. We've been over that topic in this very thread.

  25. #18500
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    It's Full of Stars....
    Posts
    4,850
    Was gonna start separate thread, but I’ll just put this here. We are scheduled to fly to NYC on Xmas day, spend five days in Manhattan, then fly back NYE. The Mrs. and I both vaxxed and boostered, Things One and Two have 2x Pfizer on board. I’m hearing rumbles on the Interwebs that Omichron is starting to really ramp up in the NE, can any NY area Mags confirm? I read SNL may cancel their season finale due to COVID, and some Broadway shows may start going dark (again). We have trip insurance, 100% refundable up to 72 hours in advance….. I really don’t want to cancel, but I also don’t want to endanger my family or get fucking stranded in NY. What says the collective? Any NYC maggots there on the ground? Thanks in advance, and HOLY FUCK I AM SICK OF THIS SHIT. /blog
    What we have here is an intelligence failure. You may be familiar with staring directly at that when shaving. .
    -Ottime
    One man can only push so many boulders up hills at one time.
    -BMillsSkier

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