Real Estate Crash thread

[54-46]

Good idea. Declare multiple offers and open the bidding.

Yep; they did that around the corner and got $130K over asking. ($100K more than I paid for a similar unit in Feb, which makes me happy.)

[4matic]

musk's Hillsborough house. That is nice area.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8...15534966_zpid/

[Toadman]

https://www.bendbulletin.com/localst...adc980586.html

Lots of Cali peeps moving to Central Oregon.

[54-46]

musk's Hillsborough house. That is nice area.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8...15534966_zpid/

Nice ‘hood. Got profiled by a cop in Hillsborough one time.

[MontuckyFried]

Yep; they did that around the corner and got $130K over asking. ($100K more than I paid for a similar unit in Feb, which makes me happy.)

It's all fun and games until you get your updated figures from the local appraisal district.

[AdironRider]

12ish percent raise in valuation for me this year, they increased the homeowner exemption 25k which helped a little. I thought it would be more honestly.

[Benny Profane]

With all this news of Blackrock lately, mark my words. WHEN the bubble bursts (and it will), investment firms like them who have big ties to Washington will be getting bailed out via YOUR tax dollars. While all the recent home buying individuals get skrewwwwwwd. Just like the '08 crash. All the big firms got bailouts. Homeowners got bent over and still had to foot the bill for those Wall Street scumbags.

While I totally understood the ire and sentiment behind the Occupy Wall Street movement back then, I've always felt that the anger's direction was actually misplaced. The anger instead SHOULD have been directed toward Washington and all the blatant cronyism that encourages this system to begin with.

Don't mean to thread drift too much. I could be wrong, but after we've all seen this sort of thing play out time and time again, I just can't see it going down any other way.

This isn't a bubble. It's nothing like before '08. Mortgages are much harder to get. That was an international bubble, too.

Not saying prices won't drop, but, there won't be any bail outs. No politician is going near that third rail again.

[summit]

Not saying prices will drop, but, there won't be any bail outs. No politician is going near that third rail again.

You say that... but then it's all "OMG too big to fail!" and "OMG it will take down the whole economy!" in the news and "hey there's a sweet board position for you after your term" behind the scenes.

[Benny Profane]

It's why the Tea Party was formed and Trump was elected President. No way the banks are getting bailed out again for another forty years or more, when that memory finally recedes. And the banks know that, too, so they are hardly going anywhere near the stupid decisions made in 2005.

[Falcon3]

This isn't a bubble. It's nothing like before '08. Mortgages are much harder to get. That was an international bubble, too.

Not saying prices won't drop, but, there won't be any bail outs. No politician is going near that third rail again.

Ah this explains why extremely profitable multi-billion dollar companies that engaged in massive inflationary stock buybacks didn’t get bailed out with the Coronavirus relief packages…. /s

[Toadman]

Never say no way. You never know.

[ötzi]

Never say no way. You never know.

There's something lurking, we just don't know what it is yet.

[fastfred]

There's something lurking, we just don't know what it is yet.

lets get a move on i could use some economic collapse so I can retire early

[liv2ski]

We all know the big difference between 05 and now was the 05 loans were all Fraud Doc Loans, whereas now they are all full doc. That is a big difference in the quality of the loans being made. You would need a major unemployment event to sink the real estate market. Clinton did that to Southern CA back in the day when he cut military speeding. For a Nation wide event what are we talking about? Great Depression part II? It could happen, but when?

[Core Shot]

It's why the Tea Party was formed and Trump was elected President. No way the banks are getting bailed out again for another forty years or more, when that memory finally recedes. And the banks know that, too, so they are hardly going anywhere near the stupid decisions made in 2005.

Half of America pays no income tax.

They have no clue.
They say tax the landlord not realizing it increases their rent.

You are correct however that shrub Bush split the party. His bailouts and handouts made most conservatives sit on their hands. Then bro bama shows up and does more Goldman Sachs and black rock handouts. The system is corrupt. I doubt it will ever change.

I expect more bailouts when this shit show collapses again

[Benny Profane]

Oh, it will collapse. But, it ain't no bubble right now. Just the same old, same old, people buying high when they should be buying low, then they'll be selling low when prices drop.

[Timberridge]

We just need to get on the same page so we're all buying low and selling high at the same time.

[sirbumpsalot]

Ah this explains why extremely profitable multi-billion dollar companies that engaged in massive inflationary stock buybacks didn’t get bailed out with the Coronavirus relief packages…. /s

Everyone got bailed out in the Corona relief packages: businesses big and small, renters, landlords, state governments, workers, slackers, etc....

[Ted Striker]

With all this news of Blackrock lately, mark my words. WHEN the bubble bursts (and it will), investment firms like them who have big ties to Washington will be getting bailed out via YOUR tax dollars. While all the recent home buying individuals get skrewwwwwwd. Just like the '08 crash.

How do you define a bubble? Whenever prices rise quickly?

For the RE market, I'd define a bubble as when speculation drives prices higher than the intrinsic value of developed property. I'd also define it as when a significant portion of residential RE debt isn't supported by actual money.

What's happening now is resource competition. The largest demographic in this country is 25-35. They want their slice of the American dream: 2.5 kids, backyard fire pit, and ample sprinter parking. But after the financial crisis, new home starts plummeted leaving a massive deficit of supply. Further exacerbated by people buying up houses in destination locations to run STR businesses.

I don't know the specifics of Blackrock's RE acquisitions, but I'm assuming they're bundling them up into REITs or some other securitized products. Why? Because returns on bonds are crap. Why? Because the Fed is keeping interest rates artificially low with quantitative easing. Basically, pouring gas on a fire. If anything is unsustainable, it's that.

[Benny Profane]

How do you define a bubble? Whenever prices rise quickly?

For the RE market, I'd define a bubble as when speculation drives prices higher than the intrinsic value of developed property. I'd also define it as when a significant portion of residential RE debt isn't supported by actual money.

What's happening now is resource competition. The largest demographic in this country is 25-35. They want their slice of the American dream: 2.5 kids, backyard fire pit, and ample sprinter parking. But after the financial crisis, new home starts plummeted leaving a massive deficit of supply. Further exacerbated by people buying up houses in destination locations to run STR businesses.

I don't know the specifics of Blackrock's RE acquisitions, but I'm assuming they're bundling them up into REITs or some other securitized products. Why? Because returns on bonds are crap. Why? Because the Fed is keeping interest rates artificially low with quantitative easing. Basically, pouring gas on a fire. If anything is unsustainable, it's that.

A bubble almost always happen as assets get driven up to abnormally high values by incredibly easy money, i.e., 2005, or the stock market before 1929 with buyers using cheap loans. That is not happening now. You're just watching consumers buy high. They may very well be stuck with underwater mortgages for years when prices go back to a mean, much like many people I knew and worked with in NYC and the burbs when I and they were in their thirties. This has happened before. California, more than once before '08.

[Toadman]

Everyone got bailed out in the Corona relief packages: businesses big and small, renters, landlords, state governments, workers, slackers, etc....

Like hell everyone got bailed out. People like me who pay more in taxes than Bezos and Buffett got jack shit.

[MontuckyFried]

I don't know the specifics of Blackrock's RE acquisitions, but I'm assuming they're bundling them up into REITs or some other securitized products. Why? Because returns on bonds are crap. Why? Because the Fed is keeping interest rates artificially low with quantitative easing. Basically, pouring gas on a fire. If anything is unsustainable, it's that.

Ding ding ding!!! Hit that nail on the head, Ted.

[glademaster]

Glad I'm locked in at 2.75% on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.

[sirbumpsalot]

Like hell everyone got bailed out. People like me who pay more in taxes than Bezos and Buffett got jack shit.

Well thats because you have no "losses" to bail out nor are you a poor suffering low income worker.

[Toadman]

Well thats because you have no "losses" to bail out nor are you a poor suffering low income worker.

Hey, no complaints. I'd rather be where I am at than needing a bailout.