Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[shera]

Yes. I'm interested in what metric you use to identify when you think BTC is above or below what you think is the correct price at a given time. Obviously there are implied follow-ups, but I'm more interested in what hodlers agree on than individual tastes in day trade frequency, risk etc.

The "correct price" of bitcoin is a really big topic, hahaha. Lots of different answers to that one. One metric is related to the cost the miners put into the system. I've posted up enough charts for today, we can let someone else chip in on that. But I like the stock to flow cross asset model the best.

Hmmm, Ben Cowen talks a lot about what he calls the "fair value" of bitcoin, maybe that's what you want? Basically he uses the bottom bands his version of the rainbow chart, which is a curve fit mostly to the bottom prices (only two touches at the topside!)

Or you can just pull up bitcoin on trading view you can choose a timeframe, daily/weekly/monthly, and load the moving average ribbon. Then you can see where the current price is with respect to the ribbon.

Anyway, you are asking such a big question! As a very high timeframe metric, I like the 200 weekly moving average as bitcoin has maintained above it for the short history:

[jono]

I assume every person who trades it has a different definition of the correct price, just curious what yours was as an example.

Maybe traders and hodlers differ on that? Anyway, I guess my follow-up for a trader is, do you see the difference between current price and long term trajectory as a trigger to buy or sell, or are you more focused on the short term?

Separately (and this really isn't a trader question): obviously the "FUD/HODL/moon/diamond hands" narratives all play to the traders' advantage by reducing liquidity and increasing volatility, which helps move money from dumb to smart. Are the cheerleaders purely talking their book, or is there actually such a thing as a long-term hodler? And if so, what's the reasoning behind that?

[Benny Profane]

The correct price is whatever somebody paid for it an hour ago.

[jackstraw]

Are the cheerleaders purely talking their book, or is there actually such a thing as a long-term hodler? And if so, what's the reasoning behind that?

Someone posted this a ways back. It's an interesting take. He has spent his life in the financial world, so he has some knowledge. Time will tell if he's correct.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/valu...oss-2021-03-24

[byates1]

I assume every person who trades it has a different definition of the correct price, just curious what yours was as an example.

Maybe traders and hodlers differ on that? Anyway, I guess my follow-up for a trader is, do you see the difference between current price and long term trajectory as a trigger to buy or sell, or are you more focused on the short term?

Separately (and this really isn't a trader question): obviously the "FUD/HODL/moon/diamond hands" narratives all play to the traders' advantage by reducing liquidity and increasing volatility, which helps move money from dumb to smart. Are the cheerleaders purely talking their book, or is there actually such a thing as a long-term hodler? And if so, what's the reasoning behind that?

i'm holding long term, 1 btc 5% of my portfolio. i also put money into btc for shorter term gains. if someone paypal's me i generally convert it it into btc.

i took ~ .5 btc around 58k and paid off all loans, bought 1 eth, 2 american eagles, and am looking at cheap land w the rest

i have full conviction btc is not going anywhere and will be a 6 figure reserve asset over time.

there are real projects other than btc that are happening now that will be the standard in the future, j powell just said we are developing cbdc's, new payment systems etc. xrp and xlm both have contracts w central banks for this purpose.

as far as doge goes, pop culture narrative's have value and are real. why does your wife want the newest macbook air?? because it's cool. she's going to surf the internet and buy shit she doesn't need and look good doing it. on something that costs 10 times as much for her given use. and her kids have 1200$ i phones.

that's my proof for needless, but real social value on things.

the entire central banking system, fraction reserve banking, creating money out if thin air is all a joke anyway. look at the ikon pass this year switching to affirm, i now have affirm telling me to buy mattresses on loan, anything.. just borrow, as much as you want, for anything..

i've posted this in this thread before but it always relevant

[Benny Profane]

Someone posted this a ways back. It's an interesting take. He has spent his life in the financial world, so he has some knowledge. Time will tell if he's correct.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/valu...oss-2021-03-24

"Valuing Bitcoin Using Credit Default Swaps"

Kill those motherfuckers with fire. For fucks sake. When will we ever learn.

[CirqueScaler]

Man imo ripple is a fraud company. Ugh.

I would say that true long term hodlers believe that in the long run the BTC price will appreciate to six figures as byates1 says. Many also hold BTC because they believe in BTC as a project - they wish for a store of value and medium of exchange that is cryptographically secure, fixed-supply, pseudonymous, and seizure and censorship-resistant. Value going up is nice too.

[shera]

The correct price is whatever somebody paid for it an hour ago.

This is such a great answer. Elegant.

[splat]

What's the chances it's all just a world government plot to take excess money out of circulation?

Sorry, just thinking out loud....

[pureantigravity]

You're asking about my trading strategy?

You're buying lows and selling highs based on the 200-day moving average, is that right?

The correct price is whatever somebody paid for it an hour ago.

But was it the correct price to buy ... or to sell?

[JimmyCarter]

But was it the correct price to buy ... or to sell?

Yes

[pureantigravity]

Cardano's Charles Hoskins warns against investing in Bitshares and any other startup by Charles Hoskins. Bitshares investors say it is all FUD and that they are still hodling. The warning article's comments section includes one Cardano investor asking, "But what if I don't have a brain?".



edit: I'm only half joking about Cardano. The history with Bitshares is there ... but I really have no idea how legit Cardano is. Hopefully for everyone invested, this won't turn out like Bitshares. Hopefully it will be a win that strengthens the ecosystem!

[pureantigravity]

In other news, a yet-to-be-named crypto has been invented with a novel proof-of-stake scheme where majority power is granted by nominations to staking nodes to ensure that the system maintains 51% friendly power. In order to ensure the security of the network, the founders have kept back 51% of the ICO tokens and now stake them just to prove that the system works. Critics point out that this isn't proof since they kept back 51% of the ICO tokens for themselves, so no one actually can mount a network attack! In their defense, the founders say, BUT IT WORKS! Price goes up. Vitalik screams. Elon says, "yes but watch my Doge bitches!"

Owns Tesla. But drives a Do(d)ge. LOL. Funny world we live in.

[Benny Profane]

What's the chances it's all just a world government plot to take excess money out of circulation?

Sorry, just thinking out loud....

Well, if you believe nationless elites who control finance and power would more than welcome a convenient and secure (to them) method to avoid all taxation and launder all sorts of gains, then, yeah.

[Benny Profane]

But was it the correct price to buy ... or to sell?

Yes, and both parties agreed.

[TahoeJ]

Well, if you believe nationless elites who control finance and power would more than welcome a convenient and secure (to them) method to avoid all taxation and launder all sorts of gains, then, yeah.

We already provide that in the US and it’s completely legal, mostly.

[Mustonen]

What's the chances it's all just a world government plot to take excess money out of circulation?

Sorry, just thinking out loud....

Charles Webster Baer at it again? Fuck.

[4matic]

BTC needs to maintain upward momentum or it’s getting another leg down. A low volume bounce off a high volume decline is classic sell.

[MakersTeleMark]

BTC needs to maintain upward momentum or it’s getting another leg down. A low volume bounce off a high volume decline is classic sell.

From a TA perspective it is, but in the long game it is just giving breathing room for alts to pump a bit. There are 3 distinct plays in this game, hold, swing, or day. Choose your poison. I spent over a year planning my positions, and I'm going to trust my brain on that and maintain what most cannot, patience. I've never had a negative ROI, even in a 50% dump.

[4matic]

From a TA perspective it is, but in the long game it is just giving breathing room for alts to pump a bit. There are 3 distinct plays in this game, hold, swing, or day. Choose your poison. I spent over a year planning my positions, and I'm going to trust my brain on that and maintain what most cannot, patience. I've never had a negative ROI, even in a 50% dump.

Time can also resolve the current technical peril.

[Benny Profane]

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...-crypto-crash/

[pureantigravity]

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...-crypto-crash/

I don't see anything in there about taking gains. So many people with huge gains on paper and 'diamond hands', and yet they still won't bring themselves to cash out a reasonable amount. What are they afraid of? Is it Lambos or nothing? I heard someone say, "don't put more than 5% of your net worth in crypto." That seems pretty reasonable to me. You can't win squat if you never sell and Telegram groups are full of people that lost out big time because they didn't sell when they were staring a huge winfall in the face.

[Benny Profane]

Because they got greedy?

[pureantigravity]

Because they got greedy?

Or just sat too long at the table counting their money! If it was a good investment today, it will be a good investment tomorrow. Putting some away enables people to stay in the game longer, with less overall personal portfolio volatility, leading to better perception of the next best time to sell.

[NWFlow]

I just wish we had a crypto ETF in the US. Guess you get brutally taxes buying the Canadian funds through ibkr?