Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Harry]

Wisconsin’s maximum security prison shutting down due to 120 guards with Covid. Murderers and rapists being transferred to less secure facilities.


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[ötzi]

Here in Mass. daily cases have been falling steadily for about 10 days and are at about 60% of the recent peak number but the positive testing percentage has been going up. I'm wondering how those two facts go together. Perhaps cases aren't being reported? Or maybe the testing is better and is simply catching a higher percentage of a shrinking number? How would you see this?

[jono]

More people getting tested before Thanksgiving?

[Name Redacted]

Here in Mass. daily cases have been falling steadily for about 10 days and are at about 60% of the recent peak number but the positive testing percentage has been going up. I'm wondering how those two facts go together. Perhaps cases aren't being reported? Or maybe the testing is better and is simply catching a higher percentage of a shrinking number? How would you see this?

From what I've seen, testing efficacy has not significantly improved. PCR testing is best, but not perfect. Antigen is pretty meh.

In our hood, the positivity rate has declined because more and more people are getting tested due to more testing sites, and one that is free and drive up. So improved accessibility is the main cause.

[Benny Profane]

The study in bias there is interesting. The real point can be made succinctly: people travel to places with less restrictions. Many from places with more restrictions and more spread. By having less restrictions (even if that seems justified by lower local spread) a region attracts the virus.

Anyone familiar with the timeline knows that's what happened: Idaho caught corona from Washington, by and large, early on. Sun Valley first and border areas a little later. Now Washington is catching it from Idaho because it spreads faster with less mitigation. Not rocket science.

It's unfortunate that they wrote so many words and still buried that between half-truths and implications. It left me assuming that the author's knowledge of the other areas mentioned was probably cursory, too.

How are you sure that Idaho caught Corona from Washington? Sun Valley is an old school international destination. I'll bet it flew in from Europe and NYC. Just like Colorado. There was no tracing, anyway. Still isn't.

[Benny Profane]

Oh, you mean they actually have a plan? Like already in place? Holy shit. It's almost like they knew they'd need some sort of way of rolling out this vaccine that everyone has been waiting on for the last 10 months. Man, those crafty Brits are just so smart.

I look forward to the oncoming shitshow of distribution that takes place in the US.

Until late January, present adminastration has stated that it will be left to the states. So, red states first.

[old goat]

There's some good news about our highly complex technological societies. Stuff breaks continuously and we fix it. On top of that, we're always inventing and installing new stuff, disrupting the old stuff as we go. Our highly complex technological societies are very resilient.

Though some hate the Trump administration, the admin did use the pandemic to temporarily suspend a lot of regulations. This in addition to their general deregulatory nature. So there's more flexibility than usual. AFAIK, we produced plenty of food this year and storage is full. Our hype-focused media would have told us otherwise.

A small percent of people dying won't stop industry. A larger percent being sick for awhile won't either. Just like doctors and nurses, other essential workers will be allowed to skip quarantine as needed. People dying alone sucks, getting sick sucks, long-covid sucks. Covidiots suck. However, I don't see any of that breaking the system.

Also, most of the country has turned the corner on new infections. Maybe they cooked the books, but it looks legit. Flat or falling in most states. Looks like people got the message. Well, a message.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states
Too early to say it's a certain pattern, but so far every time a state ramped up their cases, they've reversed it.

Good article about a recent book about the collapse of complex societies. We're not as resilient as you think, and the more complex we get the less resilient we are. If you can get around the pay wall-
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/m...-collapse.html

[jono]

How are you sure that Idaho caught Corona from Washington? Sun Valley is an old school international destination. I'll bet it flew in from Europe and NYC. Just like Colorado. There was no tracing, anyway. Still isn't.

Hence the "by and large." It's not a scientific fact, its credibility is on the order of the article you posted because it comes from similar articles from the early days of the pandemic, not genetic analysis etc. But both the timing and the news stories from Sun Valley strongly suggest that it was brought there by visitors from Seattle in the earliest days of Seattle's outbreak. Maybe you read the tales from locals sharing a gondola with the attorney from Seattle who took a call and told his office to close. Maybe not. Maybe you recall that Sun Valley was the worst per capita infection rate in the US for a while at a point when New York was very bad. Or maybe you don't. Such is news. I'm guessing the author of that article is about as local as you are, so it's likely similar.

I wasn't suggesting there's some nefarious purpose to the inherent bias in that story. Apart from the obvious need to add spice, of course. But that's enough to color it and it did. I don't think too many people from the inland northwest would read that and think the author has a strong understanding of the area but conclusions must be drawn anyway.

[bodywhomper]

Here in Mass. daily cases have been falling steadily for about 10 days and are at about 60% of the recent peak number but the positive testing percentage has been going up. I'm wondering how those two facts go together. Perhaps cases aren't being reported? Or maybe the testing is better and is simply catching a higher percentage of a shrinking number? How would you see this?

I see it as cases not being tested and reported, and I see that as the norm. Areas with higher positivity are missing more positive cases.

For comparison, the dashboard for UICU shows a very low positivity rate because they’re testing the whole university community frequently (like twice a week, I think), but a relatively high case number. Mask wearing and SD are supposedly required in public areas.

[schuss]

Uhh, excuse me? Where have I been "spouting fountains of paranoid delusions?" I haven't said anything about microchipping or any of that nonsense. Bitch, please. I know I often have views to the contrary of the sacred opinions held here or have fun talking shit about your holy deities like Newsom, Garcetti, Cuomo, de Blasio, and Biden, but find some quotes of me actually being a paranoid conspiracy theorist before throwing me under the bus. No need to lump me in with the conspiracy 5G Bill Gates pizzagate microchipping guys. I've never said anything like that. FFS.

Your delusions on my "deities" is enough, as well as your wholesale spouting of the same type of baseless bullshit you see in the dismissed lawsuits on the election.
You actively make discourse worse not because you have a different opinion (though most opinions are clearly copy-paste a given how they wildly diverge based on the political alignment of a person in question), but because you only read to respond or shout instead of to understand. You can spew whatever you want beyond this, whatever, but I wholeheartedly challenge you to read every post you've made in the past 6 months compared to responses and tell me you consistently are a good community member.

[The AD]

Here in Mass. daily cases have been falling steadily for about 10 days and are at about 60% of the recent peak number but the positive testing percentage has been going up. I'm wondering how those two facts go together. Perhaps cases aren't being reported? Or maybe the testing is better and is simply catching a higher percentage of a shrinking number? How would you see this?

The only thing that makes sense is that a lot fewer people are being tested now than before, but I don't understand why that would be the case...

edit: or maybe what you're seeing is more of an artifact that recent data isn't complete, so that 60% drop won't really be a 60% drop when all the data is in. NY Times graph shows new cases flat: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rus-cases.html

[DJSapp]

Fuck.

Father in law took a fall in the nursing home this morning. Currently sitting in the ambulance outside the ER for 90 minutes and counting because the ER is full. No ETA on getting him in. Pretty clear signs he has a concussion and potential spinal damage according to the nursing home staff.

Welcome to the new reality folks. Don't get hurt, ER's won't be able to help you and ambulance's won't be there to scrape you off the street.

[MontuckyFried]

Your delusions on my "deities" is enough, as well as your wholesale spouting of the same type of baseless bullshit you see in the dismissed lawsuits on the election.
You actively make discourse worse not because you have a different opinion (though most opinions are clearly copy-paste a given how they wildly diverge based on the political alignment of a person in question), but because you only read to respond or shout instead of to understand. You can spew whatever you want beyond this, whatever, but I wholeheartedly challenge you to read every post you've made in the past 6 months compared to responses and tell me you consistently are a good community member.

Untrue. Perhaps that's the lens you choose based on a handful of posts of mine, but I've asked many honest questions and received some great answers, with some respectful back and forth. Not so much from you, but from some of the actual doctors here. Sometimes me asking a simple question instead of just guzzling down whatever we're fed by the media is enough to draw your ire apparently. Why is it so bad to question things? Often times I do, am shown some great rebuttals or counterpoints, to which I often concede. I know you choose to ignore such posts of mine, so whatever. Can't do much more than that. Oh well.

[MontuckyFried]

Fuck.

Father in law took a fall in the nursing home this morning. Currently sitting in the ambulance outside the ER for 90 minutes and counting because the ER is full. No ETA on getting him in. Pretty clear signs he has a concussion and potential spinal damage according to the nursing home staff.

Welcome to the new reality folks. Don't get hurt, ER's won't be able to help you.

Dammit that sucks. Sorry to hear that, DJ. Hope you can get him the help he needs stat. Might be time to go full Karen on those mofos if they keep making him wait any longer.

FWIW, ER's have ALWAYS had terrible wait times IME. Was in Bozeman though, which is notorious for shitty service, so there's that. Seriously. Screw those guys. Thought my wife was gonna die, but they chose to take their sweet ass time. Had to get bent out of shape at some staff to get shit done. Best of luck and raise some hell if you need to.

[S_jenks]

The only thing that makes sense is that a lot fewer people are being tested now than before, but I don't understand why that would be the case...

edit: or maybe what you're seeing is more of an artifact that recent data isn't complete, so that 60% drop won't really be a 60% drop when all the data is in. NY Times graph shows new cases flat: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rus-cases.html

While I despise how the term "herd immunity" has been thrown around during this pandemic, you do have to wonder- at what point do the 8.3 million+ people who've recovered from the virus start playing a role? Sure as hell ain't going to stop the flow, but at some point it will grow to a large-enough that it'll start impacting transmission rates.

I'm also willing to bet that a significant percentage of those already recovered are front line workers, or are more mobile in society (i.e. those who are exposing themselves the most vs. pop'n average).

Just my .02

[schuss]

Untrue. Perhaps that's the lens you choose based on a handful of posts of mine, but I've asked many honest questions and received some great answers, with some respectful back and forth. Not so much from you, but from some of the actual doctors here. Sometimes me asking a simple question instead of just guzzling down whatever we're fed by the media is enough to draw your ire apparently. Why is it so bad to question things? Often times I do, am shown some great rebuttals or counterpoints, to which I often concede. I know you choose to ignore such posts of mine, so whatever. Can't do much more than that. Oh well.

Your vision of yourself and the reality of your content and response are very separate. You have a double standard with miles between them and just disengage when you're proven wrong or ignorant, only to pop back in with the same bad points in other spots. You recycle trite points like "the media feeding" me things when you have no clue on my sourcing, background or other factors. You're just a walking r/conservative shitpost, indistinguishable from all the other nuts other than by name.

[Dantheman]

Uhh, excuse me? Where have I been "spouting fountains of paranoid delusions?" I haven't said anything about microchipping or any of that nonsense. Bitch, please. I know I often have views to the contrary of the sacred opinions held here or have fun talking shit about your holy deities like Newsom, Garcetti, Cuomo, de Blasio, and Biden, but find some quotes of me actually being a paranoid conspiracy theorist before throwing me under the bus. No need to lump me in with the conspiracy 5G Bill Gates pizzagate microchipping guys. I've never said anything like that. FFS.

You were pretty all-in on this at the time: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_relea...-yrc100220.php

It doesn't rise to the level of microchipping, pizzagate or 5G, but let's not forget that Steve Bannon was the one pushing that story.

[DJSapp]

While I despise how the term "herd immunity" has been thrown around during this pandemic, you do have to wonder- at what point do the 8.3 million+ people who've recovered from the virus start playing a role? Sure as hell ain't going to stop the flow, but at some point it will grow to a large-enough that it'll start impacting transmission rates.

I'm also willing to bet that a significant percentage of those already recovered are front line workers, or are more mobile in society (i.e. those who are exposing themselves the most vs. pop'n average).

Just my .02

The fallacy of big numbers. Herd immunity and transmission reduction starts kicking in once we get over 80-90%. Currently as a planet we're somewhere around 0.82% in cases as a percentage of global population. That is, 64,097,151 cases out of 7,800,000,000 humans according to John Hopkins this morning. We would need a 100 fold increase in cases.

[jono]

Reduction as a result of immunity has already started, though--it's just really small and nowhere near herd immunity.

[Benny Profane]

Hence the "by and large." It's not a scientific fact, its credibility is on the order of the article you posted because it comes from similar articles from the early days of the pandemic, not genetic analysis etc. But both the timing and the news stories from Sun Valley strongly suggest that it was brought there by visitors from Seattle in the earliest days of Seattle's outbreak. Maybe you read the tales from locals sharing a gondola with the attorney from Seattle who took a call and told his office to close. Maybe not. Maybe you recall that Sun Valley was the worst per capita infection rate in the US for a while at a point when New York was very bad. Or maybe you don't. Such is news. I'm guessing the author of that article is about as local as you are, so it's likely similar.

I wasn't suggesting there's some nefarious purpose to the inherent bias in that story. Apart from the obvious need to add spice, of course. But that's enough to color it and it did. I don't think too many people from the inland northwest would read that and think the author has a strong understanding of the area but conclusions must be drawn anyway.

Well, we could go on about this, but, the article I posted is about present day transmission across state lines, or, within driving distances. Air travel has been shut down for a very long time, although a few assholes are getting through, I guess. But, way back in March, I'm pretty sure the virus was flying around the world in airplanes, starting in China, and then to Italy and the Alps and, yes, Seattle, and then the world. I'm assuming it wound up in Colorado spread by relatively wealthy ski vacationers from the eastern U.S. and Europe. Don't know what the base clientele at Sun Valley looks like, but, if it's mostly Seattle money, sure, that's probably the source, although I'm doubtful that SV attracts young techies. More of an older crowd, right? I'm still convinced I got it in February flying back and forth on four planes to SLC and hanging out with the rich Euros at Deer Valley and Alta, but, who knows. Like I said, with no coherent tracing program, it's all speculation.

[jono]

Untrue. Perhaps that's the lens you choose based on a handful of posts of mine, but I've asked many honest questions and received some great answers, with some respectful back and forth. Not so much from you, but from some of the actual doctors here. Sometimes me asking a simple question instead of just guzzling down whatever we're fed by the media is enough to draw your ire apparently. Why is it so bad to question things? Often times I do, am shown some great rebuttals or counterpoints, to which I often concede. I know you choose to ignore such posts of mine, so whatever. Can't do much more than that. Oh well.

This comes pretty close to providing an example of schuss' point. The "Oh well" seems particularly familiar. I know I've given you some shit but I'm honestly inclined to give you the benefit of the doubt more than not. What raises my ire is seeing repeats of things people have corrected you on in the past. Reads like you're here to shout not to learn, like he said. It seems like you have some underlying assumptions that you aren't willing to examine so you keep bringing back the same de-bunked points. It seems unintentional, FWIW, but it's still irritating.

[DJSapp]

Reduction as a result of immunity has already started, though--it's just really small and nowhere near herd immunity.

Can you please point to a single population group where over 50% of the population has been infected? I'll wait.

Reduction hasn't started. This forest fire is just beginning.

[seano732]

Vibes DJ. Hang in there man......

[jono]

Well, we could go on about this, but, the article I posted is about present day transmission across state lines, or, within driving distances. Air travel has been shut down for a very long time, although a few assholes are getting through, I guess. But, way back in March, I'm pretty sure the virus was flying around the world in airplanes, starting in China, and then to Italy and the Alps and, yes, Seattle, and then the world. I'm assuming it wound up in Colorado spread by relatively wealthy ski vacationers from the eastern U.S. and Europe. Don't know what the base clientele at Sun Valley looks like, but, if it's mostly Seattle money, sure, that's probably the source, although I'm doubtful that SV attracts young techies. More of an older crowd, right? I'm still convinced I got it in February flying back and forth on four planes to SLC and hanging out with the rich Euros at Deer Valley and Alta, but, who knows. Like I said, with no coherent tracing program, it's all speculation.

And at this point there's no tracing. Back then there was and the SV outbreak saw significant effort toward that. From memory, I thought I saw claims of having identified patient zero there. The article is not wrong about the current trend or the need for consistency. It just misses the original cause (which can be repeated if we ever get below endemic): if light numbers of cases lead to light restrictions, light restrictions attract the virus both because they fail to mitigate and because they attract spreaders, both generically and demographically.

[LongShortLong]

Good article about a recent book about the collapse of complex societies. We're not as resilient as you think, and the more complex we get the less resilient we are. If you can get around the pay wall-
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/m...-collapse.html

Good read. I see an author with a narrative, exploring that narrative. It's not prescriptive. Comparing covid to the black death is ridiculous. Covid is an amped up flu that struggles to kill maybe as much as 0.6%. Black death, the author says, took out up to 60%. Ok I picked an extreme example. Societal problems or larger disasters could lead to collapse, I agree there's potential. Perhaps in another thread. The prime disaster I foresee is my own mortality - every year there's one less ski season to enjoy, and one less stone fruit season, best to savor each. Both are driven by the disasters called "winter storm warning" and "blizzard" producing both powder days and irrigation water.