Results 11,301 to 11,325 of 18222
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05-13-2020, 10:10 AM #11301Registered User
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- Jan 2005
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- Denver, CO
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- 1,620
Well things are starting to get interesting again. Make down limits great again!
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05-13-2020, 10:14 AM #11302
Bout time.
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05-13-2020, 10:31 AM #11303
Everyone's been waiting for the retest. If this is the start, let's see who here has the cajones to call it and push their chips in when we get there.
"timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang
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05-13-2020, 10:42 AM #11304
Tough one. I blinked the last time, and missed it. It wasn't as though we were all busy.
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05-13-2020, 10:47 AM #11305
I'm confident we can figure it out this time. First we need guidance on whether this is the start of the tide going back out or just another breaking wave.
"timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang
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05-13-2020, 10:49 AM #11306Registered User
- Join Date
- Jan 2005
- Location
- Denver, CO
- Posts
- 1,620
You know you can make money on the way down too, right? There are short ETF's, etc. You can be invested at any time.
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05-13-2020, 10:50 AM #11307
I did not know that.
So you're calling the top here?"timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang
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05-13-2020, 10:59 AM #11308
I bought two tranches of SPXU (3x s&p inverse) above 2900. Sold one just after the Tepper CNBC interview for a nice gain. Holding onto the other for the next pullback into the 2700s - can’t get too greedy with the inverse since you are already up when the market is down.
Timing the bottom is not a smart move. Have your list of companies that you like regardless, and dollar cost average into them. Opened my position in MSFT today which I believe is provably the best company out there. No reason to buy green this year.
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05-13-2020, 11:09 AM #11309Registered User
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- Jan 2005
- Location
- Denver, CO
- Posts
- 1,620
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05-13-2020, 11:18 AM #11310
Long CAT at below 95?
#1 goal this year......stay alive +
DOWN SKIS
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05-13-2020, 11:40 AM #11311Registered User
- Join Date
- Jan 2005
- Location
- Denver, CO
- Posts
- 1,620
What is your thesis for an increase in purchases of construction equipment?
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05-13-2020, 11:46 AM #11312
CAT parts and service are notoriously expensive. Would be interesting to break down sales vs parts/service as they relate to bottom line. Same for DE.
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05-13-2020, 02:23 PM #11313
As a perceived perma bear like Bennie. I'm going to call no retest of March lows but 10-15% down move by end of May.
Or not. What do I know. I thought we'd blow through 18k on the dow and it was a hard reversal.
For all I know the fed may step in tomorrow and start buying mutual funds and commons shares.
I actually felt like the announcement of LA and their colleges going virtual skewed my opinion. Now no NCAA football is becoming real again and lots tourists if you were even entertaining visiting are not going to. Not that its the end all be all, just indicative of a potentially larger trend to scare the investing population that things are not going to resume in a V shape
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05-13-2020, 04:14 PM #11314
PCI Down 7% today. It’s pimco leveraged credit. Risky but if you’re lucky it’s a chance to catch a good yield. A wave down and there will be opportunity in high dividend and high yield.
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05-13-2020, 04:52 PM #11315
I posted the chart of 29 and after to WW2 or so, so I'm too lazy to get it. It's a real lesson in the psychology of WS gambling, although I'll bet that a ton of insider trading was powering the downslope trend, since laws against such still were forming. Joe Kennedy took his bootlegging capital and made real money making friends on WS. But, anyway, watch the gains on the way down on that chart. Plenty of money to be made, especially if you came out of the first drop healthy.
Powell didn't send a signal today that he was fueling this party anymore. He basically said, ball in legislative court, I've done my thing.
As for sports, a massive international entertainment industry, the best I've heard is, when you turn on the TV and see Wrigley or Fenway or choose your game stadium full and cheering, it's over . That's a long way off.
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05-13-2020, 07:43 PM #11316
Agreed. I came out of first drop up a bunch . I sold almost all equities 2/24. Different situation for me since I had the benefit of large capital loss carry forward to exhaust so no tax hit. Then rolled some on spy triple etf short fund.
Keep in mind I was a strictly buy and hold for 20 plus years in index funds. So against my nature but I really felt this time was different.
Now I don’t trust this market at all.
I bought a house with some profit at the beach and my kid other kid a tacoma. Yes I shouldn’t complain.
My plan is 12-15 month dca balance, maybe miss some gains and go fish.
It feels so disjointed and removed from fundamentals.
What do I know. I just don’t like playing in this sandbox anymore.
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05-13-2020, 08:53 PM #11317
Going to make a big move on Boingo one more leg down. Think they’re perfectly positioned to benefit from the main demerit of 5g - that it struggles indoors. Hasn’t received the hype/stock pump of any other 5g associated stocks and already has a deal inked with Verizon.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thev...lution-phoenix
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05-13-2020, 09:07 PM #11318
OKTA for the continued win. They're not going to go out of favor anytime soon.
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05-14-2020, 06:22 AM #11319Registered User
- Join Date
- Apr 2010
- Posts
- 805
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05-14-2020, 06:43 AM #11320
This country is going broke faster than a divorcee off her alimony.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
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05-14-2020, 07:56 AM #11321
But the divorcee can't leave a cookie jar full of iou's.
The gov't is trying to stay in this weird goldilocks zone between the low interest rates and their desire to fund via the long end of the curve. They blinked bringing back the 20 yr since people weren't biting on the 30 yr anymore. Something's gonna snap at some point."timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang
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05-14-2020, 08:11 AM #11322
You're not getting it. We're living through a grand experiment. Modern monetary theory 1.0. Just print money. Unfortunately the inflationistas and debt moaners have started to whine the past few weeks. Didn't we learn anything in '08?
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05-14-2020, 08:38 AM #11323
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05-14-2020, 08:57 AM #11324Registered User
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- Denver, CO
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- 1,620
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05-14-2020, 09:02 AM #11325
Yeah, the lesson from '08 was that money was too tight.
"Restrictive monetary policy rather than the deleveraging in financial markets that had begun in August 2007 offers a more direct explanation of the intensification of the recession that began in the summer of 2008. By then, U.S. financial markets were reasonably calm. The intensification of the recession began before the financial turmoil that followed the September 15, 2008, Lehman bankruptcy. Although from mid-2007 through mid-December 2008, financial institutions reported losses of $1 trillion dollars, they also raised $930 billion in capital–$346 billion from governments and $585 billion from the private sector"
In other words, the “audit the Fed” gold bug money machine QE brrrrr hyperinflation narrative is wrong. The Fed did too little, not too much.
Once again the bigger 2020 risk is deflation, not inflation. Seeing something like 2% inflation by '21-22 would be a good thing and the Fed should do whatever it takes to make that happen.
And FWIW MMT is a bullshit economic model, not a monetary policy.
The bottom line is the Fed can't fix any of our problems because peoples’ perceptions of safety means only saving lives will save the economy. What the Fed can do is inject excess cash into the economy which people will then spend when it's safe to do so.
https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/...df/hetzel2.pdf
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