Is the stock market going to tank?

[jackstraw]

It's almost like the market is thinking that people getting $1,200 checks or direct deposits are going to put it into the market instead of buying food and paying rent.

What the fuck is going on? So fewer new cases reported yesterday than the day before means we're winning!

Just met a sub-contractor in the woods this weekend and two houses he was working on the buyers both backed out. They're now spec houses. That's the type of shit that is going to start happening. All the jobs lost are not coming back

I'm optimistic that we'll come back out of this, but the question is how long will it take.

[4matic]

Even if the dividend on SP500 is cut in half it still beats the 10y note. Still a lot of hedge rebalance going on. Remember that the reaction low coincided with the quarterly expiration so there is a lot of leverage to reconcile in the aftermath.

[digitaldeath]

Why the fuk is the market green. What a joke

[Timberridge]

People gonna be spending like sailors on shore leave. Go long hookers and bars DD.

[Mazderati]

Anyone who got out back in?

[Benny Profane]

Pump and dump, bot driven.

[Benny Profane]

Jamie Dimon isn't buying.

https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/in...eo-letters.htm

[Mazderati]

WMT almost at a 52 week high. Sold it.

[skaredshtles]

Anyone who got out back in?

Oh, hell no.

I'm also pretty irritated that we have a company-stock trading blackout until May.

[Platinum Pete]

We're not deep enough into job loss timeline for normal folks to start selling investments or tapping their 401ks. What's the timeline for that?
I'm assuming the job losses are concentrated in the hospitality & travel industries, so maybe the bulk of those folks are not market participants - wait staff don't generally (lots of exceptions) have 401ks and stock holdings, but they might play with Robinhood, have an inheritance in the market, or otherwise have money in the market that they'd tap early to ride out the storm.

[406]

I don't think average/many people move the market.

From the nyt:

A whopping 84 percent of all stocks owned by Americans belong to the wealthiest 10 percent of households. And that includes everyone’s stakes in pension plans, 401(k)’s and individual retirement accounts, as well as trust funds, mutual funds and college savings programs like 529 plans.

[Mazderati]

[4matic]

Something to keep in mind is that markets are like oceans. Periodicity of nearby measurements is related. A few weeks ago we finished the fastest 30% drop in history. Volatility is a two way street. Big swell down, big reaction up. Mkt still down 20% on the year, don't get a woody because your energy stock doubled. Nothing has changed.

The indexes undercut this and bottomed 3/22, but same idea thinking applies: STFR. Sell it early, sell it late, sell it with alacrity. It's a gift.

So you quote your own quote that happens to fit today's narrative? Should we go and dig up every time you are wrong? That's hindsite shit peddling or attention seeking.

[dunfree]

So you quote your own quote that happens to fit today's narrative? Should we go and dig up every time you are wrong? That's hindsite shit peddling or attention seeking.

you jealous?

[Mazderati]

Sold BRK/B. Will be back in at some point. I'm a little more than even on CVX. Not so much on XOM.

[4matic]

you jealous?

Hardly. I have more respect for someone that shows me their losses. I bought XOM at $48, CVX at $89, BP at $29, and VZ at $55 last month. All losses. I was legging out of my bond position prior to the illiquidity event as planned and then panic sold some during the event and it cost me 2% of assets. That's a big mistake for me and kept me too cautious when there were opportunities. All good though, I don't need the risk but I'm trapped doing nothing for a while.

I still like China FXI.

[mcsquared]

Sold BRK/B. Will be back in at some point. I'm a little more than even on CVX. Not so much on XOM.

Heh, I am up 4% on XOM. But I got everything so perfectly hedged that, in sum total, I make or lose in the dozens of dollars every day.

[Toadman]

It is very odd to see the market going up like this. Maybe some WS folks that shorted the market at 25K+, that are pumping it back up to dump it again come the end of April? Who the hell knows these days. I bought XOM at $38.50. But that 20/20 hindsight thing. My foresight is not so good though.

[glademaster]

Mass layoffs are good for business. Companies are reducing their overhead through layoffs and shuttering large office buildings and it's saving them more money than they're losing from the productivity hit they're taking. This is a win for the oligarchs.

[mcsquared]

Seriously, I bet a bunch of banks and other businesses never open up a large number of branches again. Why would you now that your customers have been forced to do everything online?

[swissiphic]

Mass layoffs are good for business. Companies are reducing their overhead through layoffs and shuttering large office buildings and it's saving them more money than they're losing from the productivity hit they're taking. This is a win for the oligarchs.

Any links to some cost/benefit analysis curves that might show where the breaking point would be in terms of the companies hitting an inflection point of where the relevant factors combine to cause an anti win for the oligarchs?

[4matic]

Seriously, I bet a bunch of banks and other businesses never open up a large number of branches again. Why would you now that your customers have been forced to do everything online?

Maybe, I think they open for a while if they have an ongoing lease and to restore confidence. If your local branch closes it could cause redemptions but eventually yes.

[Timberridge]

Mass layoffs are good for business.

You need to learn to think past the first turn. If everyone is laid off, then who buys shit?

[skaredshtles]

You need to learn to think past the first turn. If everyone is laid off, then who buys shit?

Rich old Boomers?

[LeeLau]

I know I'm talking to myself here but it's fun in a bizarro way to learn about mREITs

My calculations are off because I have to factor in the bank lenders to IVR not marking to market Agency and non-agency MBS. That's pretty much a foregone conclusion that everything will be called but MAYBE the agency MBS will get more weight because of an implied fed backstop

Anyhow if the collateral is marked down more than 30% then commons and prefs will get wiped out. So I'm really buying a call option without time limit on the entire biz. Hell why not? All on red!

After reading more about mREITs I bought a bit more TWO and AGNC both of which are agency backed MBSs. But after realizing the entire sector is correlated so that diversification in that game is a fools errand I dumped those flat and went for IVR which is what I thought would be the most upside (70% of portfolio is Agency MBS - 30% is non Agency MBS per their last 10Q) but also has some pretty awe-inspiring leverage 6 - 7% debt/equity ratio! - I guess those dividends don't come without risk).

Entire sector moving in lockstep with markets so I'm now slightly green on IVR. Patiently awaiting the Fed money tree for mReits