Results 8,251 to 8,275 of 18222
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02-25-2020, 01:31 PM #8251
Nasdaq down 10% in 4 trading days
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02-25-2020, 01:31 PM #8252
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02-25-2020, 01:35 PM #8253
It already happened. For fucks sake, does anybody have any money here?
Besides, a pure equity only trade dropped that much. Go to Vanguard or Fidelity and check out their charts for mixed funds since then. Hardly as wild as that. Mine did great, but, I'm keeping that one to myself.
The only people who really got hurt chucked it all over the side in late 08 and went to cash out of fear, and sat there for a long time. Dumb.
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02-25-2020, 01:35 PM #8254
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02-25-2020, 01:36 PM #8255
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02-25-2020, 01:38 PM #8256
S&P futures just tagged 3121 and 10s are bouncing around new all-time lows (1.307 at lowest so far today and 1.314% currently. Previous all-time low at 1.321% after Brexit in 2016).
My market focus is on mortgage rates, so this is a PSA: although rates are as low as they've been since 2012, they haven't fallen nearly as fast as Treasury yields, and they never will at times like this (unless we're talking about a QE3 type event where the Fed specifically targeted asset purchases on MBS and NOT Treasuries). But safe to say: when the global financial market is in full flight-to-safety mode, mortgage rates get shafted at first (relative to Treasuries, which so many people seem to think are the basis for mortgages).
Can explain "why" in more detail if anyone's still awake, but long story short, when mortgage investors get their money back sooner than they expected (due to falling rates and refis), the underlying mortgages become less valuable relative to other fixed-income investments. That doesn't mean mortgage rates don't move lower, only that they move lower at a snail's pace at times, even when the 10yr is plummeting to all-time lows.
(p.s. super double secret insane busy mode this week so I'm not subbing to this thread just yet, but figured I'd chime in for whatever reason. Feel free to PM if you have an urgent follow-up question or if you want to argue).
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02-25-2020, 01:40 PM #8257
/\Mortgage rates are not as low because short rates are not as low. It's that simple.
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02-25-2020, 02:00 PM #8258
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02-25-2020, 02:06 PM #8259
100% bonds since November 2018 and documented here. I don't need risk anymore. 3% a year and I'm good. If you've been reading this thread you can see my opinion for much lower rates is consistentl.
Speaking of which, bond funds were off their highs when stocks were making their lows today. Downside could be about over short term.
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02-25-2020, 02:11 PM #8260
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02-25-2020, 02:15 PM #8261
What's missing other than short term rates at zero? 30 year rate is barely off its all time low. I agree that there is a minimum administrative rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh
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02-25-2020, 02:17 PM #8262
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02-25-2020, 02:18 PM #8263
Investment account dickwaving?
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02-25-2020, 02:20 PM #8264
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02-25-2020, 02:23 PM #8265
Biggest two day percentage decline since 2008
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02-25-2020, 02:32 PM #8266
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02-25-2020, 02:46 PM #8267
I sold some bonds. Just 1% to raise cash.
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02-25-2020, 02:59 PM #8268
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02-25-2020, 03:05 PM #8269
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02-25-2020, 03:12 PM #8270
Maybe this Black Swan will stab Trump right in the heart, and we as a nation can rejoice. (I know, take it to polyass)
Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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02-25-2020, 03:14 PM #8271
I want to see a chart of the activity of this thread with market volatility. One of you nerds could do that for sure. I expect a strikingly inverse relationship.
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02-25-2020, 03:16 PM #8272
It’s like fresh powder
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02-25-2020, 03:50 PM #8273
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02-25-2020, 03:59 PM #8274
Far, far from a black swan event.
Real selling. More to come.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
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02-25-2020, 04:00 PM #8275
A swan can be any number of sizes, it’s the surprise.
Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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