The 416 Fire. North of Durango, San Juan NF

[Alpinord]

Depends on whether it's Bud Light, Bud, Ska Dementia Aged and Confused Bourbon Barrel Aged Euphoria or Durango Derail Ale.
Stating the obvious, depending on intensity, volume and duration, the heavy rains don't necessarily soak into the soil but run off. A lighter rain could soak in without the flooding until saturation.

The best scenario is a slow, sustained soaker. More than likely there will be some amount of heavy rain which will move lots of debris, ash and soil. After the Missionary Ridge fire there were big flash floods that changed drainages dramatically. If lots of debris gets caught and creates a build up behind it, followed by a big release, it can be very devastating. The dead standers are a long lasting hazard.

[bagtagley]

USFS closed Dark Hollow after the Brianhead fire last year and has yet to re-open it. It might not re-open this year, either.

Do you know why, specifically? Danger from dead trees?

[raisingarizona13]

USFS closed Dark Hollow after the Brianhead fire last year and has yet to re-open it. It might not re-open this year, either.

It took 3 years or maybe it was four and several different attempts to get the Little Bear Trail opened up again after the Shultz fire here in flagstaff. It was first opened for a couple of months before Monsoon season that year flooded some of the drainages and blew the trail back out.

[Dantheman]

Do you know why, specifically? Danger from dead trees?

The closure notice didn't provide those details. I'm sure the potential for widowmakers is part of it, but it's probably mostly just to keep random dingdongs from trampling the off-trail areas that are in a very fragile state. It sure didn't help that they had a horrible snow year down there. The lack of soil moisture this spring is sure to delay the recovery. I also wouldn't be surprised if they were, and maybe still are, conducting active re-seeding efforts and thus wanted to keep the pubic out. If I had to guess, I'd bet that they'll keep it closed until the ground vegetation has gown up enough to discourage off-trail travel.

[adrenalated]

It took 3 years or maybe it was four and several different attempts to get the Little Bear Trail opened up again after the Shultz fire here in flagstaff. It was first opened for a couple of months before Monsoon season that year flooded some of the drainages and blew the trail back out.

A couple months after the Buffalo Creek fire in 1996, a thunderstorm created massive flooding and destroyed several trails in the area (as well as most of the town of Buffalo Creek and killing two people). I'm not sure how long it took to reopen the trails but they basically had to be completely rebuilt.

22 years later, there are still basically no trees in the burn area.

[Meadow Skipper]

One thing we’re sort of getting around to here is water-repellant soil that forms in areas that burn intensely. Dry soils are more susceptible than moist ones. The effects can last as long as three or four years. It’s kind of shitty downstream.

http://www2.nau.edu/~gaud/bio300w/frsl.htm

Intense burns may induce the formation of a water repellent soil layer by forcing hydrophobic substances in litter downward through the soil profile. These hydrophobic organic compounds coat soil aggregates or minerals creating a discrete layer of water repellent soil parallel to the surface. Water repellent soil layers are reportedly formed at temperatures of 176-288°C and destroyed at >288°C. Extensive water repellent layers can block water infiltration and contribute to runoff and erosion. Formation of water-repellent layers is an important concern in western shrublands.

Decreased soil porosity and the formation of water repellent layers decrease water infiltration rates. Loss of soil organic matter and increased bulk density can decrease the water storage capacity of soils. In flat terrain, this contributes to soil desiccation, particularly in the surface soil layer. In steep terrain it can significantly accelerate runoff, ash transport, erosion, and mass wasting. Just exposing soil surfaces can also cause soil erosion. Without the mitigating effects of vegetation on the impact of raindrops, bare soil surfaces can form a sealed surface layer resulting in much higher rates of surface runoff. Surface erosion by wind or gravity can also increase when ground cover, surface litter, and/or duff protecting the mineral soil are removed. For this reason, re-establishment of ground cover naturally or by seeding is the most effective erosion control following fire.

[evdog]

We've had a few fires in Socal where the trails were opened either right away after a fire or following a bit of mitigation needed where trails were turned into fire breaks. We got off easy on those ones.... But we've also had some long closures that sucked. We don't have a lot of forest cover left....

May Valley near Idyllwild is finally reopening after the 2013 Mountain Fire. That one had big storms after the fire that wiped out most of the trails and a segment of PCT. USFS wanted to keep people out of May Valley since it was fragile and wide open after fire. They didn't want people wandering around wherever they wanted. Part of that PCT section is still closed. Some trails are now open again.

Above LA there are still trails closed because of the 2009 Station Fire. Extremely steep slopes + storms = landslides and destroyed trails. Different areas were closed for years until the slopes stabilized enough to allow public entry. Some trails are still closed because the Forest Service doesn't have the funds to rebuild them. CORBA and Mount Wilson Biking Association have had to do that work themselves, which takes time. Might be 5 more years before everything is open again.

Hopefully some Durango trails will reopen quickly - a benefit of having more types of users and commercial operators in the area who will pitch in to help get them re-opened. You can bet Hermosa Tours will do whatever it can to reopen Hermosa Creek Tr asap. Moto riders are good about cutting deadfall off trails. Hunting guides will want to get up trails like Little Elk to their camps. If the fire impacts the CT they'll be all over doing whatever repairs as needed. Hopefully the fire isn't so severe that it requires a long closure before people can get to work...

[core2]

Hoping I can buy some cheap burned land up there in the next few years.

[grskier]

That’s easy to say, but the cold reality is that the public won’t accept either the smoke from prescribed fire (either natural or human-ignition) or the cost of thinning. I speak from experience.

Also, only certain forests types will burn non-catastrophically. Spruce is not one of those.

except where they do....

I'll agree that not enough is done, because most of the budget for that sort of thing is now spent reactively not proactively...

but we see some prescribed burns here... and we live with it.

[Meadow Skipper]

except where they do....

I'll agree that not enough is done, because most of the budget for that sort of thing is now spent reactively not proactively...

but we see some prescribed burns here... and we live with it.

It might look a little different to you if you were to read input and comments from the public or attend meetings during the planning phase, or if you were to answer the agency phones and letters during burns, and/or if truly landscape-scale Rx fires were being conducted. ‘Some’ little Rx fires here and there aren’t going to fix the overall problem.

I believe you that you and your circle of friends/acquaintances/neighbors ‘live with it’ (and I give you major props for that) but my experience as a fire manager and as an involved citizen after I retired showed me that there is a sizable contingent of the public that actively opposes large, landscape-scale prescribed fire or anything that drifts smoke into town. There’s a lot of resistance to pile-burning and smaller Rx fires as well, again IME.

[ASmileyFace]

This shit is bad fucking news. The smoke today might be the worst I've seen yet. I watched this thing start as I drove north on Friday the 1st. I ended up watching it blow up from the summit of Engineer Peak. I joked with some other people on the summit about it ruining Durango for the summer. It isn't so funny now.

To quell some rumors that I read here... the train is 100% at fault for the fire. They need to complete an investigation first, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this one out. Especially with train loving first hand witnesses. The train wasn't running diesel because they can't drag as many passenger cars with the trains they own. The train has since canceled $3 million in tickets and has caused millions in lost revenue for the entire region. Silverton is completely dead and business in Durango is tanking My buddy who own the bike shop at the bottom of Horsegulch is rightfully bent out of shape about this. Now with the closure of city and county owned trails it is safe to say that this is a total catastrophe for the region. I just got laid off my job because we were supposed to be building a house near Electra Lake. Looks like that won't be happening soon. That's not even talking about the smoke, which has been brutal in the valley these past 3-4 mornings.

All that said, the firefighters are doing and fantastic job considering the impossible task in front of them. Stopping this thing is going to take nothing less than consistent rain for many days. Hopefully Bud can be that for us but I have a feeling we're going to be burning long into monsoon this year.

[Garth Bimble]

This shit is bad fucking news. The smoke today might be the worst I've seen yet. I watched this thing start as I drove north on Friday the 1st. I ended up watching it blow up from the summit of Engineer Peak. I joked with some other people on the summit about it ruining Durango for the summer. It isn't so funny now.

To quell some rumors that I read here... the train is 100% at fault for the fire. They need to complete an investigation first, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this one out. Especially with train loving first hand witnesses. The train wasn't running diesel because they can't drag as many passenger cars with the trains they own. The train has since canceled $3 million in tickets and has caused millions in lost revenue for the entire region. Silverton is completely dead and business in Durango is tanking My buddy who own the bike shop at the bottom of Horsegulch is rightfully bent out of shape about this. Now with the closure of city and county owned trails it is safe to say that this is a total catastrophe for the region. I just got laid off my job because we were supposed to be building a house near Electra Lake. Looks like that won't be happening soon. That's not even talking about the smoke, which has been brutal in the valley these past 3-4 mornings.

All that said, the firefighters are doing and fantastic job considering the impossible task in front of them. Stopping this thing is going to take nothing less than consistent rain for many days. Hopefully Bud can be that for us but I have a feeling we're going to be burning long into monsoon this year.

Sorry to hear all this...sucks, hopefully things will be get back on track.

You're right about the fire fighters...there's no telling how many structures were saved by them keeping it on the west side of 550.

BTW...you know anything about concrete repair/replace?

[jono]

conducting active re-seeding efforts and thus wanted to keep the pubic out

Good strategy

[Tech Tonics]

Yeah this fucking blows for sure.
Pics are from Animas Mountain looking north into the Animas valley.

The bottom of hermosa is pretty much burned out and smoldering. It's now much further S and SW than I would've guessed. Right above homes in the upper Falls Creek area. Pretty sure Feller's Cabin is gone now.

It looks like a war zone. The resources they are throwing at this fire is remarkable. We saw 4-6 planes (including the VLAT!) and twice as many helicopters. Some serious fkn 'merica.

The smoke in the morning is horrible.

Everyone in town is super bummed.

I'm leaving town for week on Friday. I wonder what I'll come home to. Stoked to gtfo though. A week on the river is just what I need.

[HankScorpio]

How fucked am I if I have a mountain bike trip planned in Breck in 2 weeks?

[The SnowShow]

Sucks for everyone down there

Is the Ice Lake area at risk?

[Doughnuts01]

How fucked am I if I have a mountain bike trip planned in Breck in 2 weeks?

Should be fine... Fire ban was put in place yesterday after the Buffalo Mt fire. You won't be able to have a campfire but there are plenty of places in town to drink a beer.

Not a ton of info on the fire but I'm sure they will try to keep it in the wilderness... bike trails are fine....for now

[adrenalated]

How fucked am I if I have a mountain bike trip planned in Breck in 2 weeks?

Not at all? The 416 fire is 150+mi away from Breck and it looks like they have the small fire in Silverthorne fairly well handled.

Is the Ice Lake area at risk?

Right now, the fire is well south of there.

[grskier]

It might look a little different to you if you were to read input and comments from the public or attend meetings during the planning phase, or if you were to answer the agency phones and letters during burns, and/or if truly landscape-scale Rx fires were being conducted. ‘Some’ little Rx fires here and there aren’t going to fix the overall problem.

I believe you that you and your circle of friends/acquaintances/neighbors ‘live with it’ (and I give you major props for that) but my experience as a fire manager and as an involved citizen after I retired showed me that there is a sizable contingent of the public that actively opposes large, landscape-scale prescribed fire or anything that drifts smoke into town. There’s a lot of resistance to pile-burning and smaller Rx fires as well, again IME.

We have a large contingent of people that get it here I think.. you're right, some little rx here. I work for a local agency that advocates it, so the feds aren't TOO shy about doing what they can.

I think generally, most people don't understand the silviculture and biology that goes into managing forests, and if they did they'd accept more small to medium inconveniences.

[HankScorpio]

Should be fine... Fire ban was put in place yesterday after the Buffalo Mt fire. You won't be able to have a campfire but there are plenty of places in town to drink a beer.

Not a ton of info on the fire but I'm sure they will try to keep it in the wilderness... bike trails are fine....for now

Not at all? The 416 fire is 150+mi away from Breck and it looks like they have the small fire in Silverthorne fairly well handled.



Right now, the fire is well south of there.

Good, thank you. A map on CNN marked one major fire just north of Breck. I question their accuracy.

[Garth Bimble]

How fucked am I if I have a mountain bike trip planned in Breck in 2 weeks?

Looks like monsoon season will start this weekend. You probably won't have to worry about fires, just miserably cold & rainy afternoons which is preferable, IMHO.

[Garth Bimble]

Good, thank you. A map on CNN marked one major fire just north of Breck. I question their accuracy.

That's probably the fire on Buffalo Mountain in Silverthorne. With the ant farm like condo developments right next to where it started, they jumped all over it like buzzards on a gut wagon. It's probably out already.

[Danno]

Yeah this fucking blows for sure.
Pics are from Animas Mountain looking north into the Animas valley.

The bottom of hermosa is pretty much burned out and smoldering. It's now much further S and SW than I would've guessed. Right above homes in the upper Falls Creek area. Pretty sure Feller's Cabin is gone now.

It looks like a war zone. The resources they are throwing at this fire is remarkable. We saw 4-6 planes (including the VLAT!) and twice as many helicopters. Some serious fkn 'merica.

The smoke in the morning is horrible.

Everyone in town is super bummed.

I'm leaving town for week on Friday. I wonder what I'll come home to. Stoked to gtfo though. A week on the river is just what I need.

That sucks. An old roommate of mine from durango is on a 2 week road trip right now, I talked to him a couple of nights ago. He lives in town so his place is safe, but it's weird to be away from home while your home burns.

Is the Ice Lake area at risk?

If this fire got to Ice Lakes, we'd be in a serious heap of trouble (which is saying something, considering how much trouble we're in now). That said, Ice Lakes is closed along with the rest of the San Juan NF, so if you're asking because you want to go there, it's not an option.

[summit]

Buffalo Mtn Fire is contained.

All those resources should be returning to 416... or I guess Moab is burning too now.

Temps should drop 10+ degrees with rain by Saturday!

[HankScorpio]

Looks like monsoon season will start this weekend. You probably won't have to worry about fires, just miserably cold & rainy afternoons which is preferable, IMHO.

I'm from Vermont, I'm used to miserably cold and rainy days. Sounds better than inhaling smoke.