NYS Winter Weather, Climate Change and the Longevity of Skiing/Boarding

[charles martel]

It was over 70 degrees at both Bristol and Swain ski resorts in upstate NY yesterday. That's on February 20th.

I spoke to a friend in Lake Placid this morning who told me that it was in the low 60s there yesterday, which is not as bad, but, as she and her husband have explained to me, they never used to get this amount of rain in the winter. The rain has made Whiteface pretty much a man-made snow mountain and has pretty much quashed all the Jackrabbit Cross Country Trails in the region.

And, it is only going to get warmer in NYS.

Here is the NYS Department of Environmental Conservations assessment of where the climate has come from and where it will go in NYS:

Impacts of Climate Change in New York
What happens when the climate changes?

Already Happening

New York's ClimAID report (2011, 2014) (link leaves DEC), the National Climate Assessment (2014) (link leaves DEC), and other research show that a variety of climate change impacts have already been observed in New York and across the northeastern United States:

Temperature

• The annual average temperature statewide has risen about 2.4°F since 1970, with winter warming exceeding 4.4°F.
• This equates to an increase of about 0.25°F per decade since 1900.
• Annual average temperatures have increased in all regions of the state.
Precipitation
• Overall, average annual precipitation has increased across New York State since 1900, with year-to-year (and multiyear) variability becoming more pronounced.
• New York is getting more precipitation in the winter and less precipitation in the summer.
• Between 1958 and 2010, the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (downpours) increased more than 70% across the northeastern United States.
Sea-level rise
• Sea levels along New York's coast have already risen more than a foot since 1900.
• New York's rate of rise (about 1.2 in per decade) is almost twice the observed global rate (0.7 inches per decade) over the same period.

Natural resources

• Spring begins a week earlier than it did a few decades ago; in many areas of New York, the first leaf date is more than 8 days earlier and the first bloom date is more than 4 days earlier than in the 1950s.
• Winter snow cover is decreasing.
• Pollinating bees in the northeastern United States arrive about 10 days earlier than they did in the 1880s.
• New York breeding bird and oceanic fish population ranges have shifted northward over the last several decades.

Future Scenarios

Carbon dioxide and other potent greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries, guaranteeing ongoing change even as we reduce emissions. We have already "locked in" some climate change, the real questions are how much? and how quickly?Without an immediate and concerted effort to reduce greenhouse gas we will continue to observe temperature increases and associated impacts.

Temperature

• Modelling shows that New York should anticipate more warming. Compared to the 1971-2000 period, average temperature will be

o up to 3°F warmer by the 2020s.
o up to 6°F warmer by the 2050s.
o up to 10°F warmer by the 2080s.

• The most warming is expected to occur in northern NYS.
• By 2100, our growing season could be about a month longer, with intense summers (extreme heat and heat waves) and milder winters.


Precipitation

• Modelling shows that New York is also likely to experience more precipitation and more variability in precipitation. Compared to the 1971-2000 period, average precipitation in New York will increase

o up to 8% by the 2020s.
o up to 12% by the 2050s.
o up to 15% by the 2080s.

• By 2100, the biggest precipitation increases are projected for northern NYS and in the winter months.

Sea-level Rise, Storm Surge, and Flooding

By the 2050s, sea level is expected to be as much as 30 inches (2.5 feet) higher in New York's coastal area, as compared with sea level averaged for 2000-2004. By 2100, New York's coast could see up to 6 feet of sea-level rise.
New York is very vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise, including storm surge and coastal flooding.

In 2014, Governor Cuomo signed the Community Risk and Resiliency Act (CRRA)to ensure that applicants for specific permits or funding demonstrate that future climate risks due to sea-level rise, storm surge and flooding have been considered, and have been incorporated into certain facility-siting regulations.

CRRA also requires New York to promulgate a regulation establishing official projections of sea-level rise.

Climate Change and Health

Climate change poses a variety of health risks. Widespread impacts may occur as a result of warmer temperatures increasing pollen production in plants and ground-level ozone formation, which exacerbates asthma, allergies, and other respiratory conditions.

Changed climate conditions also look to favor the survival of insects and disease carriers such as mosquitoes and ticks, making West Nile virus, Lyme disease, and other diseases more prevalent and opening the door to new pests and diseases.

https://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/94702.html

[uglymoney]

Tremendous amount of rain here the last couple of days. Lightning, thunder, complete downpours on top of frozen ground so 100 percent of it runs off and floods streams. All regional resorts closed yesterday for the refreeze so they could blow on top and crush the ice. Race team practice had to be canceled which really stinks for my girl but I didn't really want to ski on refreeze anyway.

This is the second time an epic winter rain event has happened this year and last year was worse.

As one climatologist was saying the weather seems to be much more north south than it used to be due to changes in the jetstreams patterns. Our winter weather used to come from the west so things were pretty consistent, not that exciting but steady. Nowadays we get bigger weather events, sometimes bigger snows, but almost certainly preceeded or followed by a massive warm up that melts it off or super cold air from the artic that puts us in a crazy deep freeze. More precip. The effects are much more radical than just the average temp increase would suggest.

Video from today here. Still February. 16 degrees right now.

https://www.facebook.com/maquoketase...2330319501027/

[charles martel]

Tremendous amount of rain here the last couple of days. Lightning, thunder, complete downpours on top of frozen ground so 100 percent of it runs off and floods streams. All regional resorts closed yesterday for the refreeze so they could blow on top and crush the ice. Race team practice had to be canceled which really stinks for my girl but I didn't really want to ski on refreeze anyway.

This is the second time an epic winter rain event has happened this year and last year was worse.

As one climatologist was saying the weather seems to be much more north south than it used to be due to changes in the jetstreams patterns. Our winter weather used to come from the west so things were pretty consistent, not that exciting but steady. Nowadays we get bigger weather events, sometimes bigger snows, but almost certainly preceeded or followed by a massive warm up that melts it off or super cold air from the artic that puts us in a crazy deep freeze. More precip. The effects are much more radical than just the average temp increase would suggest.

Video from today here. Still February. 16 degrees right now.

https://www.facebook.com/maquoketase...2330319501027/

Yup. I know what you mean.

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[Timberridge]

Pretty soon they'll be growing bananas and mangoes in upstate NY. This could be the economic miracle that rescues the area from its century long decline.

[LightRanger]

The wavy jet/North American dipole pattern is interesting. And a subject of continued study.

It's finally cold here in CA, but the anomalous Arctic temps this week are frightening--e.g. making it above freezing at the North Pole in February. TGR's own "213" (e.g. Dr. Ben Hatchett) has done some recent stuff on our issues out here:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs...EI-D-17-0027.1
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/11/899/pdf

We picked the wrong sport to be so passionate about.

[Benny Profane]

It was over 70 degrees at both Bristol and Swain ski resorts in upstate NY yesterday. That's on February 20th.

I spoke to a friend in Lake Placid this morning who told me that it was in the low 60s there yesterday, which is not as bad, but, as she and her husband have explained to me, they never used to get this amount of rain in the winter. The rain has made Whiteface pretty much a man-made snow mountain and has pretty much quashed all the Jackrabbit Cross Country Trails in the region.

And, it is only going to get warmer in NYS.

Here is the NYS Department of Environmental Conservations assessment of where the climate has come from and where it will go in NYS:

Impacts of Climate Change in New York
What happens when the climate changes?

Already Happening

New York's ClimAID report (2011, 2014) (link leaves DEC), the National Climate Assessment (2014) (link leaves DEC), and other research show that a variety of climate change impacts have already been observed in New York and across the northeastern United States:

Temperature

[INDENT]•The annual average temperature statewide has risen about 2.4°F since 1970, with winter warming exceeding 4.4°F.
•This equates to an increase of about 0.25°F per decade since 1900.
•Annual average temperatures have increased in all regions of the state.
Precipitation
•Overall, average annual precipitation has increased across New York State since 1900, with year-to-year (and multiyear) variability becoming more pronounced.
•New York is getting more precipitation in the winter and less precipitation in the summer.

You know, I'm no climate change denier, but, when I read this stuff, I just have to shake my head. Like "•This equates to an increase of about 0.25°F per decade since 1900." Oh, really. That, and so many other stats and future modeling just makes me laugh. The reasoning is just so flawed. Because recorded temps have risen over forty years, then they have risen so much over 110 years. No. That's not how it works. You just don't have decent data since, oh, about 1970, when technology and meteorological science was finally sophisticated enough to make somewhat accurate forecasts, because instruments were placed everywhere and satalites were recording macro events accurately. Before that, it was a very crude and undeveloped science. Fuck, in 1934 or about that, a class five hurricane barreled up the east coast and ripped into Long Island, killing many, and nobody had a clue it was there until it was. That's less than a century ago. Now, I'm supposed to swallow these computer models that, I'm sorry, are very biased in such an emotional environment. Humans input that flawed data, and turn the dials in the direction they want the results to occur. A good example are the computer models the quants developed before the financial crash in 08. These were some of the smartest math whizzes hired by the best and the brightest on Wall Street, and they came up with models that said, hey, no worries, trade away, you're cool. Whoops. And they were paid a ton for that, too. So these weather geeks, many who have an agenda, are to be believed, no questions? Sorry.

[charles martel]

You know, I'm no climate change denier, but, when I read this stuff, I just have to shake my head. Like "•This equates to an increase of about 0.25°F per decade since 1900." Oh, really. That, and so many other stats and future modeling just makes me laugh. The reasoning is just so flawed. Because recorded temps have risen over forty years, then they have risen so much over 110 years. No. That's not how it works. You just don't have decent data since, oh, about 1970, when technology and meteorological science was finally sophisticated enough to make somewhat accurate forecasts, because instruments were placed everywhere and satalites were recording macro events accurately. Before that, it was a very crude and undeveloped science. Fuck, in 1934 or about that, a class five hurricane barreled up the east coast and ripped into Long Island, killing many, and nobody had a clue it was there until it was. That's less than a century ago. Now, I'm supposed to swallow these computer models that, I'm sorry, are very biased in such an emotional environment. Humans input that flawed data, and turn the dials in the direction they want the results to occur. A good example are the computer models the quants developed before the financial crash in 08. These were some of the smartest math whizzes hired by the best and the brightest on Wall Street, and they came up with models that said, hey, no worries, trade away, you're cool. Whoops. And they were paid a ton for that, too. So these weather geeks, many who have an agenda, are to be believed, no questions? Sorry.

Mr. Anecdotal McFanecdotal has replied.

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[k2skier112]

You know, I'm no climate change denier, but, when I read this stuff, I just have to shake my head. Like "•This equates to an increase of about 0.25°F per decade since 1900." Oh, really. That, and so many other stats and future modeling just makes me laugh. The reasoning is just so flawed. Because recorded temps have risen over forty years, then they have risen so much over 110 years. No. That's not how it works. You just don't have decent data since, oh, about 1970, when technology and meteorological science was finally sophisticated enough to make somewhat accurate forecasts, because instruments were placed everywhere and satalites were recording macro events accurately. Before that, it was a very crude and undeveloped science. Fuck, in 1934 or about that, a class five hurricane barreled up the east coast and ripped into Long Island, killing many, and nobody had a clue it was there until it was. That's less than a century ago. Now, I'm supposed to swallow these computer models that, I'm sorry, are very biased in such an emotional environment. Humans input that flawed data, and turn the dials in the direction they want the results to occur. A good example are the computer models the quants developed before the financial crash in 08. These were some of the smartest math whizzes hired by the best and the brightest on Wall Street, and they came up with models that said, hey, no worries, trade away, you're cool. Whoops. And they were paid a ton for that, too. So these weather geeks, many who have an agenda, are to be believed, no questions? Sorry.

A completely illogical, and flawed, strawman

[Benny Profane]

Why?

Computers, well, until AI starts programming, are dependant upon human input and logic. Even then, they're not free of bias.

[BC13]

I was up in Placid for work yesterday and was thinking about how this 72 hour thaw will wreck the remainder of the season in the ADKs and what this kind of weather portends for the future.

Water was running high everywhere and I can only imagine what today's 65 degree weather did to the snow pack.

It's freakin February and it was in the 70s North of Albany, NY.

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[huckbucket]

Why?

Computers, well, until AI starts programming, are dependant upon human input and logic. Even then, they're not free of bias.

The flaw wasn't your argument. The flaw was that you've convinced yourself that you know enough about the complexities of climate modeling to be able to summarize it's flaws in 274 words. The hubris is strong with you my man.

[Benny Profane]

You see, that's the problem. We have assigned scientists complete authority in determining what this issue is all about, and questioning their methods is considered sacrilege. I've encountered this before. One little, uh, waitaminute, how do they get from a to d there?, and I'm being shouted at. It's an extremely emotional and irrational subject, and, worse yet, it involves predicting the future, which, trust me, nobody can do. Never could, never will.

Very much like we questioning church doctrine a few hundred years ago. Nobody expects a Spanish Inquisition, right?

[huckbucket]

You missed the point. All I'm asking is that you admit that you'd not trained in predictive weather science to know what is right and what is wrong. Seriously, could you really see yourself walking up to a guy like Roger Pielke and giving him your opinion?

[Benny Profane]

You're missing my point. I'm guessing that, yeah, there is human caused climate change. I just have a big problem with the use of data and methods I have seen from these experts. I don't bow down to them as infallible beings. They're human, too, with all the faults the rest of us have.

[huckbucket]

You're missing my point. I'm guessing that, yeah, there is human caused climate change. I just have a big problem with the use of data and methods I have seen from these experts. I don't bow down to them as infallible beings. They're human, too, with all the faults the rest of us have.

300 trained scientists authored that NYS report linked in the OP. They may be right, they may be wrong. If you're prediction comes true, it will be by chance. This is complicated science that deserves thoughtful expertise, not someone who reads a lot on the internet.

[Benny Profane]

I really don't read much about this stuff, but I hear a lot of passionate noise.

[charles martel]

I was up in Placid for work yesterday and was thinking about how this 72 hour thaw will wreck the remainder of the season in the ADKs and what this kind of weather portends for the future.

Water was running high everywhere and I can only imagine what today's 65 degree weather did to the snow pack.

It's freakin February and it was in the 70s North of Albany, NY.

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I hear you.

I called my friends at the Spruce Lodge where I stay when I go there and they, along with all the people I talk to on the Cloudsplitter Gondola, are really concerned, too.

I'm headed up there on March 4th for a week of skiing and hoping the weather will get and stay cold.

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[bigdude2468]

So the upper Midwest has had a colder than normal winter so far, does that mean that climate change is not happening? Of course not but it is very dangerous to try to connect weather with climate change.

[hairy asshole]

I really don't read much about this stuff, but I hear a lot of passionate noise.

and the east wall isn't going to open this year!!!!

Benny, you spout about shit you know nothing about. Do you expect people to not call you on it?

[Groomer Gambler]

You're missing my point. I'm guessing that, yeah, there is human caused climate change. I just have a big problem with the use of data and methods I have seen from these experts. I don't bow down to them as infallible beings. They're human, too, with all the faults the rest of us have.

"All models are wrong but some are useful."

[Grape_Ape]

The flaw wasn't your argument. The flaw was that you've convinced yourself that you know enough about the complexities of climate modeling to be able to summarize it's flaws in 274 words. The hubris is strong with you my man.

Truedat

[The Tortoise]

For the past couple of season the mantra of the east coast skier has been "if only this was snow".

I'll likely be able to ski out my days but I do wonder about my kids. What lengths will they have to go to get a season's worth of good skiing?

[huckbucket]

I really don't read much about this stuff, but I hear a lot of passionate noise.

Reminds me a great quote from Max Planck.

"A scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it."

[snapt]

A good example are the computer models the quants developed before the financial crash in 08. These were some of the smartest math whizzes hired by the best and the brightest on Wall Street, and they came up with models that said, hey, no worries, trade away, you're cool. Whoops. And they were paid a ton for that, too. So these weather geeks, many who have an agenda, are to be believed, no questions? Sorry.

You should check out Peter Attia, he does some fascinating talks/podcasts about how his team and many othere's predicted the crash with their models and when presented to their respective management teams they just buried their heads in the sand.

We can bicker about it all we want but the proof is in the pudding, I can't imagine place like Mt Shasta Ski Park, Soldier Mountain, and even Homewood will be viable long term if one out of 5 winters is cold enough to even operate?

[ncskier]

serious question whether you believe in climate change or not.
When scientists talk about 1-2 Degree rise in temperature, I would think most people equate that with instead of 29 degrees on February 20th its 31 Degrees. It would seem that 70 plus degrees on almost the Canadian border is so far out of the norm. I know its averages and such, but does that mean for every artic outbreak like early january we are forced to contend with abnormal warmth. I mean nature always reverts to the mean. Kind of how a drought is "broken" by some epic flood events.
I guess what I'm asking is, was weather more even keeled 100 years ago and now we are more like a roller coaster?