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  1. #19351
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
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    northern BC
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    20,419
    Do you think America will notice 500,000 dead ?

    Any cocktail napkin math or is that a WAG ?
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  2. #19352
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    Feb 2009
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    On Vacation for the Duration
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    I wonder what the over/under is? Gotta be closer the the truth than any other source.

  3. #19353
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    Oct 2008
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    valley of the heart's delight
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    Quote Originally Posted by XXX-er View Post
    Do you think America will notice 500,000 dead ?

    Any cocktail napkin math or is that a WAG ?
    With exponential growth, and unknown variation in the exponential factor as behaviors change, the cocktail napkin math (and detailed models) tend toward WAG as the timeframes become long.

    Would not be hard to cross 500,000 by the end of 2020. There's 220 days to NYE. We'd need to average about 1800 dead per day.

    If we managed to convince most of us to drop social distancing, I bet we could be there by end of July. Here's the napkin model - June 10 2k/day, June 15 4k/day, June 20 8k/day, June 25 16k/day, June 30 32k/day, July 5 64k/day. I allotted a few weeks to get the death rate back up to 2k/day, and to convince most everyone corona is a nothingburger and bars/parties/churches are awesome. Actually, there's a weeks long delay between infections and dying, so frontload another 2 weeks. I also assumed cases can double in 5 days, which I don't think is controversial. Back in March we were seeing doubling in 2 days or less. In practice, people would freak out as cases and deaths begin to rise, so we'd be unable to sustain the growth needed to kill 500k by the end of July.

    What will actually happen? Hard to say. Putting on the happy mask... Daily deaths has been trending down for over a month. A few yahoos you see in the news might cause a bump a few weeks from now. Even so, a bumpy gradual decline in daily deaths seems a possible future. We're learning which countermeasures are most effective and how to balance countermeasures with work and play. If a bumpy decline works out, 500k by end of 2021 is a reasonable guess. Could be half that, with luck.

    Looking at recent history, I'm gonna guess 0.89% of Americans would have died in 2020 without corona. I get 2.9 million. An extra 500k means some overtime for St. Peter, but it's manageable
    10/01/2012 Site was upgraded to 300 baud.

  4. #19354
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
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    13,984
    So exactly when did trying to be good to each other and trying not to spread a communicable disease become a political act?
    Ooof!

  5. #19355
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
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    EWA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    So exactly when did trying to be good to each other and trying not to spread a communicable disease become a political act?
    'bout the time Rush Limbaugh et al took to the airwaves.
    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkiní Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

  6. #19356
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    Seattle
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    20,080
    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    So exactly when did trying to be good to each other and trying not to spread a communicable disease become a political act?
    1/20/17

  7. #19357
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    Sep 2004
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    LV-426
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    16,824
    One of you needs to order this:

    Quote Originally Posted by powder11 View Post
    if you have to resort to taking advice from the nitwits on this forum, then you're doomed.

  8. #19358
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    8,733
    Quote Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain View Post
    Kamala Harris V.P.

    Warren Sec of Treasury
    Or just sell the remaining functional bits of America to China. Why do we need these middle persons.

  9. #19359
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    Mar 2008
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    northern BC
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    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/corona...uine-1.5583608

    World Health Organization temporarily halts hydroxychloroquine trials ^^

    did anybody believe Trump when he said he was taking the stuff ?

    in any case the WHO is a very bad organization

    mostly cuz trump was way behind on paying his end of funding

    its kind of like when he doesnt pay a contracter
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  10. #19360
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
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    the ham
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    So exactly when did trying to be good to each other and trying not to spread a communicable disease become a political act?
    I'm going with 4/4/20.

    On that day, during a white house press conference, trump stated he wouldn't wear a mask.

  11. #19361
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
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    northern BC
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    I don't blame trump it would smear his spray tan
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  12. #19362
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    Jun 2006
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    Ventura Highway in the Sunshine
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpathian View Post
    ^^ doesnít Smithers have more churches per capita then any other town in BC? Something like 13 churches for 5000 ppl
    "Any town with more churches than bars has a serious social problem" E. Abbey

    I agree it is a constitutional right for Americans to be assholes...its just too bad that so many take the opportunity...
    iscariot

  13. #19363
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    Santiago Chile
    Posts
    799
    Quote Originally Posted by hutash View Post
    "Any town with more churches than bars has a serious social problem" E. Abbey
    Gotta have em both, human nature is to switch depending on the wind direction. In the simpsons movie christians and boozers switch places when they see apocalypse coming.


  14. #19364
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    In the swamp
    Posts
    7,363

    Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

    Just got off Zoom with a friend in the ICU at Anschutz in Aurora/Denver. While cases are down since April, she detailed a family that all got exposed to CV during a Motherís Day party. The woman is now on a vent and struggling to stay alive and the kid likely gave it to her. Brutal. Two weeks from now, there are going to be some depressing stories out there from Memorial Day parties.

  15. #19365
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    truckee
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    Quote Originally Posted by KQ View Post
    Washington state has politicians currently in office who are calling the deaths fake and the whole thing a hoax while encouraging citizens to defy the SAH order and organizing rallies.
    "How's my husband, doctor?" "He's fine. He only looks dead. He's just a crisis actor. You can take him home now. Need help getting him in the car?"
    "
    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    With exponential growth, and unknown variation in the exponential factor as behaviors change, the cocktail napkin math (and detailed models) tend toward WAG as the timeframes become long.

    Would not be hard to cross 500,000 by the end of 2020. There's 220 days to NYE. We'd need to average about 1800 dead per day.

    If we managed to convince most of us to drop social distancing, I bet we could be there by end of July. Here's the napkin model - June 10 2k/day, June 15 4k/day, June 20 8k/day, June 25 16k/day, June 30 32k/day, July 5 64k/day. I allotted a few weeks to get the death rate back up to 2k/day, and to convince most everyone corona is a nothingburger and bars/parties/churches are awesome. Actually, there's a weeks long delay between infections and dying, so frontload another 2 weeks. I also assumed cases can double in 5 days, which I don't think is controversial. Back in March we were seeing doubling in 2 days or less. In practice, people would freak out as cases and deaths begin to rise, so we'd be unable to sustain the growth needed to kill 500k by the end of July.

    What will actually happen? Hard to say. Putting on the happy mask... Daily deaths has been trending down for over a month. A few yahoos you see in the news might cause a bump a few weeks from now. Even so, a bumpy gradual decline in daily deaths seems a possible future. We're learning which countermeasures are most effective and how to balance countermeasures with work and play. If a bumpy decline works out, 500k by end of 2021 is a reasonable guess. Could be half that, with luck.

    Looking at recent history, I'm gonna guess 0.89% of Americans would have died in 2020 without corona. I get 2.9 million. An extra 500k means some overtime for St. Peter, but it's manageable
    We'll know in a couple of weeks. Interesting little experiment we're running. Will hot spots come from crowded beaches, or churches, or restaurants, or private parties, barber shops and hair salons? Does inside or outside matter, number of people, length of contact, etc. If there's adequate contact tracing (debatable) and testing (maybe) perhaps we can answer these questions and refine the list of open and closed activities and places.

    Here's a dilemma--hope for the virus to die down, the economy rebounds, everyone goes back to work, but Trump gets reelected, or the opposite? Choose between health and welfare on the one hand and the end of democracy and the rule of law on the other. Fortunately it's not a choice we have to make; circumstances will make it for us. And of course the third alternative--pandemic over, Trump still loses--is a no brainer.

    Here's a piece by a veteran about people wearing fake military gear at protests.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...-rings-hollow/

  16. #19366
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    Nov 2002
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    EWA
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    16,975
    At the grocey store yesterday there was some sort of issue with the customer in front of me.

    The cashier had to call over a manager.

    Cashier is wearing his mask pulled down below his nose.

    Manager comes over, stands 2ft from cashier and takes her mask off so she can talk to him. They interact like this for about 5 mins then she puts her mask on and walks away. Cashier is still wearing his mask below his nose.
    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkiní Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

  17. #19367
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Bottom feeding
    Posts
    8,070

    Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

    Self checkout 4 me.
    Well maybe I'm the faggot America
    I'm not a part of a redneck agenda

  18. #19368
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    Oct 2003
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    Seattle
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    20,080
    Quote Originally Posted by The SnowShow View Post
    Two weeks from now, there are going to be some depressing stories out there from Memorial Day parties.
    You're right, but there are also going to be many people who are unscathed and will be even more convinced in their denial.

  19. #19369
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    Jan 2017
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    on the banks of Fish Creek
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    Name:  02B4F568-44EF-470C-9C19-F52B56DC4B9E.jpeg
Views: 767
Size:  57.2 KB

  20. #19370
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
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    valley of the heart's delight
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    Quote Originally Posted by KQ View Post
    At the grocey store yesterday there was some sort of issue with the customer in front of me.

    The cashier had to call over a manager.

    Cashier is wearing his mask pulled down below his nose.

    Manager comes over, stands 2ft from cashier and takes her mask off so she can talk to him. They interact like this for about 5 mins then she puts her mask on and walks away. Cashier is still wearing his mask below his nose.
    I prefer to view that as a step in the right direction. Doing the Covid-avoidance dance has a lot of new steps and fancy moves. We're all learning them.

    When I touch my face, I don't beat myself up, instead think how much less I touch my face. Some maskless Karen wants to be in my space talking about the playground closure (obv irl troll), I prefer she doesn't, I can talk politely, recognizing she hasn't accepted the new reality yet. Just watched a St. Helens video, day before big boomboom, people have "no fear" (watch 30 seconds)
    Human nature sounds familiar. Everything at Spirit Lake was gone 24 hours later, 500 feet deep.
    10/01/2012 Site was upgraded to 300 baud.

  21. #19371
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
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    I smell poutine!!!
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    10,926
    Quote Originally Posted by plugboots View Post
    Self checkout 4 me.
    Ya, except these days trying to shop less often and buy a bit extra to build up the surplus stock slowly, my cart is carefully packed and stacked. The baggers usually need two carts they can never figure out how I got it all in one. No way that I am running all that through self checkout myself. And believe me, I understand the temptation.

  22. #19372
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    ECO
    Posts
    4,716
    Here, you are supposed to bring your own bags or pay for paper ones. Bring your own bags, bag your own stuff. Buying paper ones and the bagger will take care of it. Store rules. Ok for me, but what about the lil ol lady? Hopefully exceptions being made.

  23. #19373
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
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    13,204
    Most of the employees at my Safeway are not wearing masks. Except for the produce guy who wears his below his nose. They do wear gloves though--same gloves all day.

    We're not allowed to bring our own bags, even if they never leave the cart and we bag ourselves. And the carts are sanitized after every use. Makes no sense. We have a choice between extremely weak plastic or heavy reusable plastic (which we can't reuse), free. We are allowed to help bag our own; last month we weren't allowed. Clearly there are no virologists or epidemiologists working for Safeway.

  24. #19374
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    Mar 2008
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    the ham
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    Quote Originally Posted by plugboots View Post
    Self checkout 4 me.
    Curbside. (if available)

  25. #19375
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    Mar 2008
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    the ham
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    @m2711c

    Somehow the cat looking on in disgust makes it way funnier

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