2008-2009 Colorado Snowpack Observations

[Rontele]

whatever you did last week to make it snow, do it again

[/anti-jinx]

[lemon boy]

LB, coverage looks good on the Pass! Those are similar conditions to what we saw yesterday.

It wasn't bad for sure. I didn't hit any rocks although my buddy did (just one). But we were engaged in low angle meadow skipping of the highest order. There was ~12" of new with localized larger deposits and pillows and it was sitting on only a couple of inches of old junk. Still needs a bit to be truly skiiable for sure and we did not venture below the top of the pass to see what was up elsewhere. I forgot to mention that far skiers rt, just below the tuning fork there was a decent size slab that'd broke and slid that was getting filled in and it wasn't apparent how it was triggered. Guessing 25' wide and about 12" deep.

[smitchell333]

Loveland Pass Sunday 12/2

12" of new snow made for some quite good although cautious skiing due to the danger of nailing the occasional rock and stump.

I'd say the danger was moderate with areas of High due to Substantial windloading the previous night and during the day. Cracking frequent. It was a bad idea to be on anything steep enough to slide as there was evidence of natural activity on N, NE, and NW faces. Activity seemed to be in the new snow for the most part and not going to the ground, except for lower elevation.

Saw a party trigger a sizable slide on the idiots cornice on the W side of the pass. (passed these guys in the gully as the talked about the "so wild!" avalanche and patted themselves on skiing in front of it).

With some luck it will settle out a bit and make a halfway decent base, but caution is in order for a few days at least.

[freejustin]

smitchell333 -- did you notice anything reactive on the E-NE? Saturday we poked around above Pass lake, then further around Loveland ridge. Couldn't get anything to move. At that point it was just very small, shallow and very soft slabs that we saw crack. I'm sure things changed substantially overnight.

The interesting thing we found above pass lake was a gulley filled in with about 1.5+ meters of mostly bulletproof snow. Twenty feet left, however, the snowpack was only 30cm deep, the lower half being 15cm of REALLY advanced facets. Once that's buried it could be a very hot spot. I wonder if anyone is seeing similar conditions elsewhere (I haven't been out enough yet to know), that might result in more exceptional variation and hot spots than a more typical year.

[smitchell333]

smitchell333 -- did you notice anything reactive on the E-NE? Saturday we poked around above Pass lake, then further around Loveland ridge. Couldn't get anything to move. At that point it was just very small, shallow and very soft slabs that we saw crack. I'm sure things changed substantially overnight.

The interesting thing we found above pass lake was a gulley filled in with about 1.5+ meters of mostly bulletproof snow. Twenty feet left, however, the snowpack was only 30cm deep, the lower half being 15cm of REALLY advanced facets. Once that's buried it could be a very hot spot. I wonder if anyone is seeing similar conditions elsewhere (I haven't been out enough yet to know), that might result in more exceptional variation and hot spots than a more typical year.

We did get some collapsing/cracking at treeline on North facing although above treeline not as much . I think the key things are 1) what the bottom layer consists of - most places where there was just a little snow it was hoared pretty good, 2) Wind loading, 3) slope.

I'm not sure, but would suspect the deeper snow you found was where snow had avalanched/windloaded from the October storms and then froze up solid. There will be areas of this where deeper drifts or debris remained and I'd think they'd be more stable generally. Problem is you wont have any confidence where those areas are and other area will be very unstable - definitely high variability.

[~mikey b]

Are you guys submitting obs to CAIC? You should be.

Think that they won't want them just because you aren't an "avalanche professional"? Think again - they'll take all the info they can get. If you think you might want to be an avy pro some day, this is a good way to start practicing and having your obs peer reviewed.

CAIC roll call.

Rontele?
smitchell333?
Lemon Boy?
FZ?
pechelman?
etc....

[pechelman]

they just need to check this thread like everyone else



interesting idea though, never thought about it
thanks for the kick in the butt

[Hacksaw]

I sometime forward stuff from this thread over to the CAIC. Along with reports I call in or fax over to them. Once a snow nerd, always a snow nerd.....

[lemon boy]

I don't send them in b/c I know that if it's useful and in this thread Hacksaw will forward that info on. Otherwise, I don't have a really good excuse.

[freejustin]

Are you guys submitting obs to CAIC? You should be.

I'm trying to more often... I definitely do when I see activity or something unusual.

[FrankZappa]

FZ = still doing snow dance (without results so far). 6-10" is not worth looking at.

[montanaskier]

dancing like crazy over here as well. A couple tonight, then 6-10 tomorrow would be nice. Temps still look crazy warm for this time of year, hopefully it won't rain like it's July again.

On a completely seperate note, I took out the Bros this weekend for their first turns on something besides the WROD......WOW, those things kick ass.

[Rontele]

Weather update. Models seem to be in pretty good agreement through Saturday. First, the polar jet seems to want to sag over the state tonight thru thursday with good moisture and dynamics. Then starting thursday, the big closed low moving towards CA sends a ridiculous stream of subtropical moisture towards the state. This should go through Saturday, though it will favor the Southern Mountains on a SW flow. After Saturday, the models are not quite in agreement with what to do with the closed low, with the GFS sending a chunk of energy towards the state and the EC closing it off and possibly retrograding it southwest, then slowly moving the low over southern Arizona and New Mexico. If the GFS verifies then it would mean more snow for the Northern and Central mountains.

After the weekend, the longer range models still show some troughiness over the SW with some shortwaves moving in from the PacNW as the pattern changes over to more westerlies with increased chances of precip through the 18th(?)

[montanaskier]

Rontele- Am I seeing this weeks snow right? Looks like maybe a skiff if anything tonight, maybe 2-4 tomorrow night, maybe another 1-2 on Thurs. As for the weekend, does it look to have potential for the central mtns....say 6+?

[Rideski]

Frequent 90mph gusts reported on Berthoud last night by CDOT.

[~mikey b]

Rontele- Am I seeing this weeks snow right? Looks like maybe a skiff if anything tonight, maybe 2-4 tomorrow night, maybe another 1-2 on Thurs. As for the weekend, does it look to have potential for the central mtns....say 6+?

NOAA sez...1-2' by Friday night with more expected into Sunday.

[Rontele]

Rontele- Am I seeing this weeks snow right? Looks like maybe a skiff if anything tonight, maybe 2-4 tomorrow night, maybe another 1-2 on Thurs. As for the weekend, does it look to have potential for the central mtns....say 6+?

Nope. Looking like a good, long duration event. Snow advisory tonight for the central mountains, 4-8 inches (though CAIC had a more aggressive 6-12 in. forecast), then snow, periodically, through saturday with 1-3 feet in total accums. Althoug, I am still a little confused as the BOU office seemed fairly meh about this storm, but the fire point forecast for Bert calls for nearly 30 inches of snow by friday.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[FrankZappa]

Monarch needs this so frickin bad I can taste it


Please let FP lead Ullr here...

Edit to add from FP's predictions looks like the storm chaser should ski northerns like Berthoud / WP thurs/fri and work south to Wolf creek/S-tonMtn for the weekend.

[smitchell333]

Fingers crossed on the forecasts.

Loveland Pass 12/4 - Wind, Wind, Wind. Anything above treeline or anywhere near treeline was blasted Monday-Tues. Anything west facing was mostly blasted devoid of snow. Northerly aspects exposed to the wind were turned into billiard table smooth wind board and easterly aspects were loaded with thick wind slab. I noted several LARGE natural slab avies on steep East faces looking like 6-10' deep off of cornice lines. Below treeline it was still wind affected, but more soft with collapsible bottom layers.

[pappag]

Just saw this.


I'll make sure to bump every time for you Rontele when we have 10% chance for ppt.

[montanaskier]

temps look crazy warm still, it was 33 degrees in Vail this morning at 7am. I hope it doesn't rain like a crazy person again like it did last week. Fingers crossed for a big prolonged event!

[Rontele]

Fingers crossed on the forecasts.

Loveland Pass 12/4 - Wind, Wind, Wind. Anything above treeline or anywhere near treeline was blasted Monday-Tues. Anything west facing was mostly blasted devoid of snow. Northerly aspects exposed to the wind were turned into billiard table smooth wind board and easterly aspects were loaded with thick wind slab. I noted several LARGE natural slab avies on steep East faces looking like 6-10' deep off of cornice lines. Below treeline it was still wind affected, but more soft with collapsible bottom layers.

I bet Montezuma bowl is great skiing right about now. So, I take it the skiing wasn't superb?

[smitchell333]

I bet Montezuma bowl is great skiing right about now. So, I take it the skiing wasn't superb?

Actually skiiing above treeline where on that windboard was delightful as it was turning on firm but carvable fast snow. Below treeline was OK where untracked, although a bit grabby and still thin.

[Ireallyliketoski2]

I sometime forward stuff from this thread over to the CAIC. Along with reports I call in or fax over to them. Once a snow nerd, always a snow nerd.....

Do your own homework!

[Rontele]

FYI - was told by a Breck liftie (not sure how accurate that is), that Peak 8 should be open this Friday.

FYI, this is a thread dedicated to backcountry conditions and weather not resort openings.

just sayin'.