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  1. #101
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    The GFS, NAM are coming into agreement that snow should begin late in the afternoon/into the evening on Friday across western, and particularily southwestern Colorado. The past couple of GFS runs keep snow in the mountains through early on Monday. Looks like appreciable snowfall for most mountain areas this weekend.

    Thereafter, ridging behind the system may persist into the following weekend. Massive storms are forecast to slam into the Pacific Northwest (ski folks delight up there!), but most of the energy and moisture is carried into Canada.

    Loveland Pass is still pretty gusty this morning, so wind loading looks to be an issue on the easterly aspects in that area, but looking at other areas (Vail, Berthoud, and McClure Passes) it looks like the winds subsided before the snow began and wind loading of new snow may not be as substantial. Anyone in these areas able to confirm?
    *Matthew E. Engelbrecht
    Lakewood, Colorado - USA

  2. #102
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    Avalanche Observer, are you not seeing a storm for next Wednesday? HPC seems to advertise one with the 12z GFS run.
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  3. #103
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    There is a little vort max I see that may be rolling across WY (see below - 12z GFS valid 12/06 at 00z) into SD/NE, but the energy and moisture from that little system may be too far to the north to be beneficial snow-wise. Perhaps some flurries in the northern mountains...the way it looks right now.

    Just my opinion, though
    Last edited by Avalanche_Observer; 11-28-2007 at 01:15 PM.
    *Matthew E. Engelbrecht
    Lakewood, Colorado - USA

  4. #104
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    Thanks! Lets hope we get some good snows out of this weekend's storm cause it is looking like a return to high pressure through the middle of the month (the 12th) and above normal temperatures.
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  5. #105
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    weather jong here

    what do those numbers mean on the graph?
    they some sort of equipotential lines for pressure\flows or something?
    distance?

    can anyone reccomend a good current book?
    im not adverse to text books\formulas\math etc so long as they arent too spendy.
    or is better just reading noaa and such?

  6. #106
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    this storm did pan out a bit better than when I first woke up this morning at 4. About 3 or 4 inches at my house. Did Breck really get 9?

    Agree with Rontele that hopefully this weekend pans out due to the high pressure following afterwards. Tonight on Vail Pass my car said -3 degrees at 6pm, so surface hoar may develop a bit. As far as the winds, it was not windy this morning at 8 when I was thru there or tonight at 6 on my way home.
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

  7. #107
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    The numbers on the chart that I uploaded are labels for the isopleths (lines of equal height). The lines indicate what elevation (above sea level) the pressure is equal to 500 millibars. Lower heights tend to indicate cold systems and low pressure at the surface, where high heights tend to indicate warm systems and high pressure at the surface. The winds generally flow parallel to the isopleths at high elevations. Here are a couple of books to check out for basic weather forecasting and weather map information:

    http://www.weathergraphics.com/redbook

    http://www.weathergraphics.com/mapbook

    http://www.weathergraphics.com/fcstbook

    The only one that I have read is the Weather Forecasting Handbook and it is VERY well written and keeps the math minimal - and optional. The author is very well versed in weather forecasting techniques and is credible. The books won't break the bank, either.

    CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger for the Vail/Summit county areas. Looks like the wind loading has contributed to slab formation on most aspects at or above treeline in that area. Careful out there!

    I, too, hope this weekend lends to some good snowfall so that I can get out poking around in the snow again!!
    Last edited by Avalanche_Observer; 11-28-2007 at 08:18 PM. Reason: Miscellaneous stuff that I forgot to put in when I first posted!
    *Matthew E. Engelbrecht
    Lakewood, Colorado - USA

  8. #108
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    looks like a hopefully brief rain event on Friday night here in Vail before the snow starts. Is anyone else seeing that? How long should that last? Last year we had the same type of thing in MT, and that ice crust layer wreaked havoc on the pack the rest of the year.
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by montanaskier View Post
    looks like a hopefully brief rain event on Friday night here in Vail before the snow starts. Is anyone else seeing that? How long should that last? Last year we had the same type of thing in MT, and that ice crust layer wreaked havoc on the pack the rest of the year.
    Unlikely except at the lowest elevations.

  10. #110
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    Weekend storm still on track. Looks like the snow will begin sometime close to noon on Friday in the southwestern mountains and spread northeast throughout the day on Friday. Most mountain areas will see snow, but the southwest mountains look to do the best.

    Avalanche danger will undoubtedly rise this weekend in the northern and southern San Juans as well as the Gunnison area mountains, and possibly parts of the Sawatch and Grand Mesa area mountains.
    *Matthew E. Engelbrecht
    Lakewood, Colorado - USA

  11. #111
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    A.O.- last night it looked like a foot plus for the Vail, Copper, Breck stretch. Is that still looking possible or will the big dumpage be over the Sthrn mtns? Right now the nws are looking like a 6" or so for Vail?
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

  12. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Avalanche_Observer View Post
    The numbers on the chart that I uploaded are labels for the isopleths (lines of equal height). The lines indicate what elevation (above sea level) the pressure is equal to 500 millibars. Lower heights tend to indicate cold systems and low pressure at the surface, where high heights tend to indicate warm systems and high pressure at the surface. The winds generally flow parallel to the isopleths at high elevations. Here are a couple of books to check out for basic weather forecasting and weather map information:

    http://www.weathergraphics.com/redbook

    http://www.weathergraphics.com/mapbook

    http://www.weathergraphics.com/fcstbook

    The only one that I have read is the Weather Forecasting Handbook and it is VERY well written and keeps the math minimal - and optional. The author is very well versed in weather forecasting techniques and is credible. The books won't break the bank, either.

    CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger for the Vail/Summit county areas. Looks like the wind loading has contributed to slab formation on most aspects at or above treeline in that area. Careful out there!

    I, too, hope this weekend lends to some good snowfall so that I can get out poking around in the snow again!!
    pechelman is going to get a beughner from all of this techy shit.

    Storm looks to be on track for tomorrow, spreading snow from south to north. Initially snow levels will be high (8500 feet), but should be lower as the day moves along. This is certainly going to favor the San Juans, W. Elks, etc., but the QPF fields still do show tremendous amounts of moisture and places such as Vail and Buff Passes do quite well in strong, moist SW flow overruning events. Aiding this is suface cyclogenesis developing over Western Colorado Friday night, that should kick up the flow a bit more helping out the more central and northern mountains. Once the subtropical wave moves east, the polar jet will kick a shortwave that will help develop snows over the NW mountains. The big loser will be the NoCentral Mountain and the Front Range, which don't do great out of a SW flow, but I bet advisory amounts are met by Saturday afternoon. Afterwards, looks like a ridge builds in for Monday and Tuesday, retrograding on Wednesday opening the door for some weaker systems from the NW--nothing tremendous at this point.
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  13. #113
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    You prognosticators are so techy-geeky with all the maps, terminology, computer algorithms, and yet wrong so often still.

  14. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by smitchell333 View Post
    You prognosticators are so techy-geeky with all the maps, terminology, computer algorithms, and yet wrong so often still.
    dont blame the messenger!
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  15. #115
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    Since this is actually more the Colo weather thread than the snowpack thread, I'd like to know if anyone actually has any feel for predicting or observing the weather using their senses instead of having to use a computer or some other electronic gadget.

    I mean, lets say you're out for 5 days at a hut. Do you have any observations that might predict a system coming in within a day or two? I remember a time in the spring when I 4WD'd way up some road to the west of Holy cross. Hit the snowline and parked. Skinned way up from there and camped. It snowed at least 18" overnite. The skiin was tits but the drive/bobsleding down that wicked road when my friends refused to ride along was a hair raising experience to say the least.

    What kind of things do you use? What do you see. What does it mean to you. Are they as/more acurate than the weatherman?

    This is kind of like people who can only nav with a GPS and have no idea how to use a map. What happens when the batteries die?

    -----
    So, here on the east X southern end of the Sawatch, hudge southerly (SW) winds (at least up in hurricane flats NW of Poncha - not so bad in Salida). More from the south than usual <note change of direction & intensity>, so I'd predict something from S Cal/ AZ, which will favor southern regions from here, as compared to the systems thatcome from PNW that favor stuff to the N of here. Black clouds above and beyond the divide to the west but clear overhead in the valley <upsloping on the western slope>. To the SE are the lenticular downwind from the N'ern Sangres - but they are way further downwind (like twice as far) as normal <high winds at altitude - maybe a good jetstream overhead>. Temps are not too bad - I think I'll see them rise - <I always notice a warm before the storm>. If old injuries from 20+ years ago and a few joints start to ache that tells me the <pressure is dropping>. Typically, southern storms track south of here, and once they pass by the upslope (especially in spring) can favor this and of the valley. I'll look for cloud formations pressed up against the E side of the Sawatch later in the cycle. But just a wall of clouds hanging near the divide is what I expect this time of year. That's the stuff that builds the winter pack up high here - similar to the wall of storm that hangs around Loveland so often. Things can be soo different in amounts just a couple miles apart (downwind and elevation).

    I mentioned earlier about rings around the moon (or sun). Those usually tell me something will move thru in about two or three days. I like to think the bigger the rings, the bigger the storm.

    What else???

  16. #116
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    My knee and shoulder hurt before storms. They hurt today, so that means something good. I also like to look at clouds, their types, and the directions they are coming from. That usually gives an indication of incoming weather, wind direction, etc.

    I agree that this thread has digressed to weather, but weather is the first point in any avalanche analysis. I'll have some more pertinent obvs after going out on Saturday.
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  17. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rontele View Post
    My knee and shoulder hurt before storms. They hurt today, so that means something good. I also like to look at clouds, their types, and the directions they are coming from. That usually gives an indication of incoming weather, wind direction, etc.

    I agree that this thread has digressed to weather, but weather is the first point in any avalanche analysis. I'll have some more pertinent obvs after going out on Saturday.
    and its digressed to weather, because thats all we've had to talk about up until recently.


    ditto on the clouds

    completely not what you're after FZ, but on multi day trips, I generally leave a small pocket barometer back at camp\hut and look at the trends.

  18. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by FrankZappa View Post
    What kind of things do you use? What do you see. What does it mean to you. Are they as/more acurate than the weatherman?

    I mentioned earlier about rings around the moon (or sun). Those usually tell me something will move thru in about two or three days. I like to think the bigger the rings, the bigger the storm.

    What else???
    Tom,
    A lot of time the only thing you can use while on exstended backcountry trips is what type of clouds you're getting and how fast they move through. The rings around the moon are also useful. I tend to also think that the bigger the ring the bigger the storm too. But, I don't have an evidence to prove it. I'll try and find this cool cloud website, that you'll find useful.
    Cheers,
    Halsted
    "True love is much easier to find with a helicopter"

  19. #119
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    you people don't carry a weather radio?

    "It is not the result that counts! It is not the result but the spirit! Not what - but how. Not what has been attained - but at what price.
    - A. Solzhenitsyn

  20. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by lemon boy View Post
    you people don't carry a weather radio?

    As an old friend of Tom and I likes to say, "Yes, you too can carry 75 pounds of ultra-light weight mountaineering equipment."

    Besides, those things (and yes, I do own one and have tried it out) don't work in a lot of remote spots.
    "True love is much easier to find with a helicopter"

  21. #121
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    Tom,

    I can't seem to find the cloud website I wanted .

    But, here is an interesting website = National Snow Analyses.

    http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

    HM
    Last edited by Hacksaw; 11-29-2007 at 12:38 PM.
    "True love is much easier to find with a helicopter"

  22. #122
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    My little talkabout has one built in. It works pretty good….up on the pass
    "It is not the result that counts! It is not the result but the spirit! Not what - but how. Not what has been attained - but at what price.
    - A. Solzhenitsyn

  23. #123
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    I admit. I like electro gadget purdy pictures. Check the 16km vapor loop.

    http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/rams...e/f7_10_0.html

    Capture for ref.


    Nice squish goin on here between N & S.
    Sure makes it look like the wind tunnel I was talkin about here in central.
    But it's good to compare these with what you see... you know, for future field reference and chit.

  24. #124
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    Lemon. You're still young. You should be totein the weather BOOM box, man!

    Quote Originally Posted by HM
    As an old friend of Tom and I likes to say, "Yes, you too can carry 75 pounds of ultra-light weight mountaineering equipment."
    Yeah, and as an old friend of Halsted's, once in a while I likes to walk into a bar and yell "Where's all the white women at?" [/inside long standing joke]


    edit: I thought HM said that's what he likes to say. Which common old friend do you speak
    Last edited by FrankZappa; 11-30-2007 at 09:14 AM. Reason: my reading comprehension is tgrish.

  25. #125
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    here we go Ul-lr, here we go.

    lets give it up for Crested Butte!

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