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  1. #51
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    Hey Rontele......I'll take that beer, this thing looks drier and drier with every hour. Fuck I hate La Nina.
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

  2. #52
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    Mind you that the morning operational QPF is a bit biased to the moist side, but:



    My guess is somewhere between 3-6 inches.
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  3. #53
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    and since it's favoring Rabbit Ears Pass to Vail Pass, I'm at least mildy hopeful that something good will come out of this......

    looks freakin cold for the weekend, eh?

  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by telemike View Post
    and since it's favoring Rabbit Ears Pass to Vail Pass, I'm at least mildy hopeful that something good will come out of this......

    looks freakin cold for the weekend, eh?
    Yup. Certainly the coldest airmass of the season. Sadly, there will be troughiness too, but the large, overland fetch doesn't bode well for moisture. If there was any sort of subtropical tap, we would be getting pounded because temps are in the "dump zone" for dendritic growth, etc.
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  5. #55
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    The 2-3 day prior to arrival ring around the moon size did not look too promising last nite.

  6. #56
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    well looks like that fell to shit. sunny and 60 here again today. I guess it will still get cold, but the snowfall predictions for the Vail Valley now look like an inch or less. Good Times. Happy Thanksgiving everybody, I'm out.
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

  7. #57
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    a bit more than it looked like yesterday afternoon. Got about 3 inches at my place. Thankful for snow today!
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

  8. #58
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    The models are beginning to develop a more stormy pattern for the western CONUS over the next couple of weeks. Looks like a moderate snow event for the San Juans on Friday, then a lull over the weekend into early next week with the possibly of a storm starting on the western slope Wednesday with heavier snow developing across the central mountains into Thursday. Mean troughing over the central US may lead to a strong NW flow across Colorado into the weekend with the possibility of good snow accumulations in the mountains.

    It's a ways out, but a good trend is developing and is worth watching.
    Last edited by Avalanche_Observer; 11-21-2007 at 10:48 AM.
    *Matthew E. Engelbrecht
    Lakewood, Colorado - USA

  9. #59
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    good news

  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Avalanche_Observer View Post
    The models are beginning to develop a more stormy pattern for the western CONUS over the next couple of weeks. Looks like a moderate snow event for the San Juans on Friday, then a lull over the weekend into early next week with the possibly of a storm starting on the western slope Wednesday with heavier snow developing across the central mountains into Thursday. Mean troughing over the central US may lead to a strong NW flow across Colorado into the weekend with the possibility of good snow accumulations in the mountains.

    It's a ways out, but a good trend is developing and is worth watching.
    Thanks, Matt. I am getting the same drift including increase confidence in an above normal precip pattern in the 6-10 day and the 8-14 day forecasts.
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  11. #61
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    From the CAIC website...........


    Jones Pass
    November 14, 2007
    Two skiers caught, not buried
    There was a close call early this season. Two backcountry skiers were in the Jones Pass area. They had made several runs in an upper bowl near the pass. On their last run, they moved to a smaller untracked bowl. They found “bomber hard” snow, and were unable to break through when they jumped on it. The first skier descended along the skier’s left side (looker’s right) and waited at the bottom of the slope just before the end of the snow.



    The red line marks the aproximate location of the avalanche.



    A photo of the bowl and avalanche slope, taken before the final run.

    The second skier entered the slope further to skier’s right. The skier triggered an avalanche on his third turn. The fracture propagated very quickly across the slope. The skier was able to struggle to the skier’s right of the avalanche, and was almost free of the tumbling debris. Another avalanche ripped out along the right flank, catching the skier again. The combined avalanches carry the skier 2/3 of the way down the slope and, fortunately, he was deposited uninjured on the surface of the debris.

    The first skier watched in horror as two hard slab avalanches sped towards her. She had time to hunker down, and then was overrun by the avalanche. She, too, was fortunate and not buried or injured.





    Avalanche Data
    The avalanches occurred above treeline in a cross loaded pocket around 12,000, on a northeast to east-northeast aspect. The party described the slope as “38 degrees,” the perfect angle for avalanches. The first avalanche was about 75 feet wide, and up to 18 inches deep. The second avalanche was similar in size, but ran to the ground. The photos are not detailed enough to determine if the avalanches were separate crown, or connected by a fracture, with the second just an area of deeper release. Both avalanches were hard slabs, small relative to the path, and relatively harmless to people (HS-AS-R2D1-O/G).

    Comments
    The crown line shows the classic shape of cross loading. The skiers descended along the shallower edges of the wind pillow, and effectively outlined the initial slab. Hard slabs are commonly triggered from shallow locations, and then propagate into deeper areas. In the early season, sometimes the only areas that offer sufficient snow are cross loaded gullies.

    “Bomber hard” snow can be attractive, because it keeps equipment off the underlying scree. Hard slabs, though, can propagate fractures along weak layers for long distances.

    The secondary avalanche ripped to the ground. Tumbling over the underlying scree and rocks could be more hazardous than the avalanche. Rocks, stumps, and deadfall just under the snow are serious early season hazards.

    The pair may have been complacent. It is easy to image a thought process like this: “It is early season, after all, and there was not much snow. The adjacent [lower angle and different aspect] slope was stable, so why should this little pocket be any different? The snow is super hard, which means it is strong. After all, it is a small slope if something goes wrong.” I can imagine the thoughts, because I have rationalized similar poor slope choices.

    This was a classic early season incident with a fortunate outcome. A combination of cross loaded hard slabs and complacent skiers lead to a good scare. It is a well-worn cliché, but bears repeating, “If there is enough snow to ride, there is enough snow to slide.” Thinking about avalanche safety must begin with the first tour of the year. There was a similar incident in Canada on the 17th.

    S Logan 11/20/2007 with thanks to Dan Moroz for the annotated photos and details.
    "True love is much easier to find with a helicopter"

  12. #62
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    I can't see the pics.

    Here's a link to the report with pictures.

    http://avalanche.state.co.us/Acciden...Jones+Pass.htm

  13. #63
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    Thanks for the write-up, Halsted. The remarks regarding complacency were spot on and it underscores how dangerous early season conditions can be.

    As for the upcoming weather, I am truly starting to lose faith in forecasting. The NOAA offices love blowing shit up in the 5-7 period only to see the models drive them North as time gets closer.

    Regardless, looks like something for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. ALL of the models have been consistent regarding this for the last couple of days/runs. The operational GFS this morning had the system going north, but still hitting us, while the ensembles, Canadian, and EC had a stronger system diving through the region. I think HPC is buying into the latter solutions as their threat forecast had NoCo in an area for possible heavy snow...

    After midweek the models--shocker--are all over the place with the GFS showing a system in the WNW flow and the EC showing a larger and deeper trough over the west. It all depends on how the High PRessure system behaves in the Gulf of AK. If the GFS verifies, then the H will close off over AK and the NW flow will undercut the high leading to a flatter, drier flow. The EC does not cut off the high pressure, which leads to a more amplified pattern allowing any systems to dig into the CONUS and strengthen.

    I think I am going to plan a bike ride for next Saturday.
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  14. #64
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    not a very safe place to wait.
    Why not at least duck over by the exposed rocks?



    [/end saturday morning QB] Glad everyone survived
    What??

  15. #65
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    HIT BY SLIDE WAITING

    c'mon folks - do you wait for the bus in the middle of the highway?

  16. #66
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    so, just what the hell does this mean?

    THE EVOLVING PATTERN BEARS SIMILARITIES TO LATE NOVEMBER 1985.

    from the National Weather Service's Forecast Discussion

    .LONG TERM....NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A PASSING SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THROUGH THE WEEK...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BY TRANSITIONING TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS SHOW REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION...EVEN OUT TO 156-180 HOURS. THE EVOLVING PATTERN BEARS SIMILARITIES TO LATE NOVEMBER 1985. BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
    TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. IN THE END THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW.

  17. #67
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    Hey Rontele, why the complete difference between accuweather and other sites? Accuweather has nothing but "abundant" or "severl hours" of sunshine and temps in the mid 40s while every other site I see has snow this week on Wed and Sat and temps not making it out of the 30s. That is a HUGE difference.

    I have a buddy at the NWS in Montana that told me he STRONGLY believes that this will go down as one of the least productive snow years in central and southern Colorado EVER. I know that being said, we could still go off for a storm or two, but I just have this feeling that we are on track for like a 150 inch year. 37 inflated inches so far at Vail, at my place I would say 19 since October at most. I am totally depressed. I know I can't change anything, but I don't cycle and hiking is done, this sucks.
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

  18. #68
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    "True love is much easier to find with a helicopter"

  19. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by montanaskier View Post
    Hey Rontele, why the complete difference between accuweather and other sites? Accuweather has nothing but "abundant" or "severl hours" of sunshine and temps in the mid 40s while every other site I see has snow this week on Wed and Sat and temps not making it out of the 30s. That is a HUGE difference.

    I have a buddy at the NWS in Montana that told me he STRONGLY believes that this will go down as one of the least productive snow years in central and southern Colorado EVER. I know that being said, we could still go off for a storm or two, but I just have this feeling that we are on track for like a 150 inch year. 37 inflated inches so far at Vail, at my place I would say 19 since October at most. I am totally depressed. I know I can't change anything, but I don't cycle and hiking is done, this sucks.
    I just don't trust accuweather. This morning's discussions seem to be more in line with the storm for Wednesday. When their confidence goes up, I can't help but be more confident. Plus, the GFS Five-Day QPF forecast is painting quite a bit of moisture over the Northern and Central mountains (1.5+). So, I think we'll get something out of the Tuesday/Wed. storm and then model confidence dramatically decreases there afterwards...

    As for long-term seasonal trends, I just don't know. The HPC Winter Outlook would make one seem pretty optimistic regarding this season for Northern Colorado, but then you read Klaus Wolster's experimental forecast, which says otherwise...

    Again, this is something we have zero control over, so why sweat it? If you don't cycle, this may be the season to start out. Its a great off season sport.

    Ummm, Halsted, that website is pretty sick. I am going to link that on the first page of this thread. Thanks!
    Last edited by Rontele; 11-25-2007 at 08:05 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Roo View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen mental illness so faithfully rendered in html.

  20. #70
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    Yeah, I thought you'd like that site.....
    "True love is much easier to find with a helicopter"

  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hacksaw View Post
    Yeah, I thought you'd like that site.....
    I hope you weren't holding out on us for too long with that site.

    Can anyone offer a tutorial on interpreting the tails of the wind vectors for the Fire Weather site? I see some vectors with 1, 2 or 3 tails. I see some with tails at the end, some with tails inset. Some with long or short tails or mixtures of both.

  22. #72
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    I'm not sure what Fire Weather site you are talking about, 3DB, but is this what you're looking for?

    http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/gu...fcobs/wnd.rxml

    If not, give me a link to what you're looking at and I will try to help.
    *Matthew E. Engelbrecht
    Lakewood, Colorado - USA

  23. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hacksaw View Post
    ummm

    here you go Observer

    maybe you should be a bit more.............observant????

  24. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Avalanche_Observer View Post
    I'm not sure what Fire Weather site you are talking about, 3DB, but is this what you're looking for?

    http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/gu...fcobs/wnd.rxml

    If not, give me a link to what you're looking at and I will try to help.
    Referring to the link Halsted posted above, but your link was in fact what I was looking for. Thanks!

  25. #75
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    looks like we may get something on Tuesday night/Wednesday....not much, a couple inches would be my guess. Friday could be something worthwhile, or it could be nothing. Hopefully it doesn't get cut off and we get a good storm. The 3rd thru the 15th or so, look to be sunny, dry, and above normal temps.
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

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