Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

That means higher revenue for companies too. Plus, instead of a drag, currency becomes a tail wind

[4matic]

By December of next year, Morgan Stanley sees:

1. Annual #CPI BELOW Fed 2% target
2. Outright deflation in core goods
3. FOMC beginning rate cuts

[Ski220]

Lower CPI (than consensus expectation) increases the chances the fed starts to pivot. Maybe still 50 in dec. maybe 25. But less pressure on them to continue such hawkishness.

Worth noting that we had 7.7% inflation in Oct 2022 on top of 6.2% in Oct 2021,

The market seems to be pricing in a major fed pivot. We'll see....

Some remarks by Fed. Gov. Christopher Waller yesterday.

“The market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report. Everybody should just take a deep breath, calm down. We’ve got a ways to go ” Waller said. ...........

“We’re going to see a continued run of this kind of behavior and inflation slowly starting to come down, before we really start thinking about taking our foot off the brakes here,” Waller said.
“We’ve got a long, long way to go to get inflation down. Rates are going keep going up and they are going to stay high for awhile until we see this inflation get down closer to our target,” he added.The Fed is focused on how high rates need to get to bring inflation down, and that will depend solely on inflation, he said.Waller said “the worst thing” the Fed could do was stop raising rates only to have inflation explode.The 7.7% inflation rate seen in October “is enormous,” he added.The Fed signaled at its last meeting earlier this month that it might slow down the pace of its rate hikes in coming meetings.The central bank has boosted rates by almost 400 basis points since March, including four straight 0.75-percentage-point hikes that had been almost unheard of prior to this year.“We’re looking at moving in paces of potentially 50 [basis points] at the next meeting or the next meeting after that,” Waller said.

Don't fight the Fed. Slowing, yes, but not done yet. We'll see.

Edit:

At the same time, Powell said the Fed was likely to raise rates above the 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate that they had previously expected.

[4matic]

Exactly, Fed rhetoric was too soft and now it’s too hard. They’ll talk tough until they don’t.

[4matic]

AMZN white color layoffs 10k. Big blue color coming soon. With FDX furloughing AMZN will have leverage to outsource shipping again

[4matic]

#2 at Fed this morning

Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard at Bloomberg today:

"I think it will probably be appropriate, soon, to move to a slower pace of increases. But I think what's really important to emphasize is we’ve done a lot, but we have additional work to do."

[MultiVerse]

I think folks should consider statements from the Fed like the one above as quite possibly setting the stage for financial repression, and not an indication things are slowly returning to 'normal' because it is almost certainly the case 2% average inflation targeting is already dead.

[4matic]

Transitory?

DXY down 7% in 10 days

[4matic]

Ocean container rates from China to US West Coast are now over 20% lower than this time vs. 2018.

After a few weeks of holding study in the $2500+/- range for the month of October and the first part of November, we are sliding hard again.

[fastfred]

so lets look at this in basic terms

housing prices are still holding high a 5% reduction in price isn't anything to get excited about
my rates are going up 10% next year possibly higher need to sit down with the advisor to pin that number
corporate profits are up if your actually producing goods and services
over valued tech is taking it in the nuts because people finally realizing they provide nothing but being a middle man taking a huge chunk of change for create a sector that is not really needed and stealing your personal well being
inflation will continue up and up even though all the big firms tell us it will stabilize soon, I call bullshit, because we need profit on health care wall street needs profit and the rich need more money the squeeze is on and they are squeezing until it bursts

we allow the two largest grocery chains to merge so long competition hello price fixing

all these economists are trying to figure it out but they have their nose buried so deep in their own ass and wallet that they have no idea whats going on but they have pretty charts and graphs to explain it all

February will be a come to jesus moment

people can only be squeezed so much

[sirbumpsalot]

PPI showed final goods +0.6% and services -0.1%. MSM focusing on the 0.2% number rather than digging deeper. 8.0% YOY and still not good.

[wkd-rdr]

I grabbed two shares of AMZN at $89

Yes! Picked up 100 @ $86.
Got rid of a bunch of bumbling crap.
(Airline stuff mostly, thought it would take off post pandemic)

[Ted Striker]

(Airline stuff mostly, thought it would take off post pandemic)

Ba-dump, sizz

[4matic]

so lets look at this in basic terms

housing prices are still holding high a 5% reduction in price isn't anything to get excited about
my rates are going up 10% next year possibly higher need to sit down with the advisor to pin that number
corporate profits are up if your actually producing goods and services
over valued tech is taking it in the nuts because people finally realizing they provide nothing but being a middle man taking a huge chunk of change for create a sector that is not really needed and stealing your personal well being
inflation will continue up and up even though all the big firms tell us it will stabilize soon, I call bullshit, because we need profit on health care wall street needs profit and the rich need more money the squeeze is on and they are squeezing until it bursts

we allow the two largest grocery chains to merge so long competition hello price fixing

all these economists are trying to figure it out but they have their nose buried so deep in their own ass and wallet that they have no idea whats going on but they have pretty charts and graphs to explain it all

February will be a come to jesus moment

people can only be squeezed so much

Some truth but not how the calculation works. For example, Health care is calculated once a year and since it was measured down yoy it becomes a -.5 drag every month for a year. The way it’s going there a a decent chance for negative surprise in the headline numbers

[gravitylover]

Ocean container rates from China to US West Coast are now over 20% lower than this time vs. 2018.

After a few weeks of holding study in the $2500+/- range for the month of October and the first part of November, we are sliding hard again.

Too bad nobody needs to ship more inventory into the country now.

[NakedShorts]

Notice how nicely the asset markets turned when king dollar decided to fall out of bed?

1. International War #3 continues to cause inflationary pressure that Central Banks cannot fix. Also sends much more money running to USD.
2. King Dollar wakes up, picks himself off the floor, and trounces EM currencies into dust.
3. The long end of the bond curve is dead, no liquidity, nobody stupid enough at the institutional level to buy more so they will try hard to make you be the buyer.

Stocks have more pain ahead and may feel like a crash but not 50%.
Bonds are bouncing but should be avoided.

Not sure why the market loves the reported drop in the lying inflation rate. It is much higher than what is reported anyways.

Looking forward to $1 trillion + dollar interest payments and clueless politicians trying to put Humpty back on the wall.

[4matic]

WTI Crude oil chart looks like $50.

[4matic]

bullish, but it is an expiration week.

“Yesterday's equity put/call ratio was literally off the charts at 1.46. That's higher than the Covid Crash”

[fastfred]

word in the resort towns is that people are putting projects on hold and consulting their financial advisors but what do contractors know

the problem is they get their financial advice market rebounds and they all say go on their projects at the same time wonder why it costs so much and why its moving so slow some of these "advisors" don't know much else than what is taught in business school

[LeeLau]

Yes! Picked up 100 @ $86.
Got rid of a bunch of bumbling crap.
(Airline stuff mostly, thought it would take off post pandemic)

I too grabbed some AMZN bags at low 90s. Some TSLA at 200 but effing Elon. Also some MSFT at 230

[Brock Landers]

word in the resort towns is that people are putting projects on hold and consulting their financial advisors but what do contractors know

the problem is they get their financial advice market rebounds and they all say go on their projects at the same time wonder why it costs so much and why its moving so slow some of these "advisors" don't know much else than what is taught in business school

So then what should they do, Einstein? You’ve got it figured out.

[4matic]

Ytd low in WTI Crude.

[yeahman]

WTI Crude oil chart looks like $50.

Where do you find this chart?

[fastfred]

So then what should they do, Einstein? You’ve got it figured out.

spend money like a wine drunk mommy shopping online

[4matic]

Where do you find this chart?

Anywhere. Just my interpretation of the long term chart. There is some support around $75 from 2019. It’s breaking down below a well tested low and previous high around $80.