Is the stock market going to tank?

[JimmyCarter]

Is value investing dead? Some talk in this thread of buying AAPL and GOOGL days after record earnings reported.... I’m not sure Graham and Bogle approve....


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Point:
When everything is cheap, nothing is.

Counterpoint:
https://www.gmo.com/americas/researc...ue-and-growth/
"Given the wide discount at which value stocks are currently trading globally, we expect value to continue to outperform the market over the next few years, but that belief neither assumes nor requires any particular moves in interest rates."

[4matic]

TSLA trading up and down with $BTC is annoying. Fed needs to stop buying assets.

[LeeLau]

Dodd-Graham and the Bogleheads have no idea how to value intangibles and discount forward looking projects overmuch IMO. It means a nice safe slow grind of a path but also means their performance lags and their view looks back.

Edit1 having said that every one who's interested in the markets long-term should learn Dodd-Graham. It sets a baseline from which one tunes their own philosophy and approach tailored to one's own risk-profile.

Edit2 Covered MVIS 25C on the tank today. Sold more 13P then added a short 18C leg thus making it a short strangle with goals to make money from lower volatility and theta by the time options expire. Will probably add a long call leg too for protection at some point.

Took in the RIOT 43Cs weeklies. Hoping it gets more of a pop next week so as to be able to reshort.

Tried to sell CCL 30C yesterday on its pop and flubbed it. Missed the sell. Still waiting.

Edit3. XOM reiterates its dividend is "extremely secure" thus increasing my conviction that it belongs in my grandpa boomer account. Will try to sell more CSPs to leg into more. So far its produced beautifully yielding in the low teens.

[Benny Profane]

Dodd-Graham and the Bogleheads have no idea how to value intangibles and discount forward looking projects overmuch IMO. It means a nice safe slow grind of a path but also means their performance lags and their view looks back.

Wait, wait, whoa. The performance lags exactly whom or what? Over what time period? And, at what cost?

How old are you? Are you on a good streak that you think will last forever? You're smarter than most hedge fund and actively managed fund managers, who have basically sucked for over a decade now? You're smarter than the market? Really? Then why aren't you out there charging two and twenty for mediocre to poor returns to some poor souls who fall for that "Bogle is so yesterday" stuff?

[Hopeless Sinner]

Wait, wait, whoa. The performance lags exactly whom or what? Over what time period? And, at what cost?

How old are you? Are you on a good streak that you think will last forever? You're smarter than most hedge fund and actively managed fund managers, who have basically sucked for over a decade now? You're smarter than the market? Really? Then why aren't you out there charging two and twenty for mediocre to poor returns to some poor souls who fall for that "Bogle is so yesterday" stuff?

Lee Lau is correct. I own it and move on. Some people are traders, and/or risk takers, and have the desire to accumulate as much wealth as possible. Investment advice for the masses vs. the finely tuned strategy of a single person that is well versed and in tune with market is not a good comparison. It seems like Lee has his YOLO account and his boomer account and the YOLO account is a LOT more fun to talk about so that's what we hear about most. And it is very informative.

[Benny Profane]

Oh, ok, it's a cool hobby. But, how does it perform? Beats the market over a decade?


A responsible argument after saying "performance lags" has to be backed up with numbers. What's your benchmark? How is individual stock picking and speculation better, or worse, performing than just sitting with a low cost 70/30 index strategy? Over what time period? Has to be at least ten years, maybe 20-50 in my book. There were plenty of self regarded geniuses in 1928 who were in soup lines in 1931.

Bogle says you're a fool if you're buying individual stocks and market timing, and he's written a collection of books filled with concrete research backing that up. What's your justification?

[BobMc]

I’m guessing you’ve been beating yourself for at least a decade. Carry on.

[Hopeless Sinner]

Oh, ok, it's a cool hobby. But, how does it perform? Beats the market over a decade?


A responsible argument after saying "performance lags" has to be backed up with numbers. What's your benchmark? How is individual stock picking and speculation better, or worse, performing than just sitting with a low cost 70/30 index strategy? Over what time period? Has to be at least ten years, maybe 20-50 in my book. There were plenty of self regarded geniuses in 1928 who were in soup lines in 1931.

Bogle says you're a fool if you're buying individual stocks and market timing, and he's written a collection of books filled with concrete research backing that up. What's your justification?

I don't really know why you care what anyone else does. Young people have been making fun of old people's ways for thousands of years. It's not going to stop because we are now the old people.

From a technical stand point I'm sure we're all familiar w the phrase "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

There is no guarantee that bogles methods are going to work out and diversification is one way to try to insure that there is some hope of getting sufficient returns on investment.

One could look at speculative trading as risky, but doing that in a portion of a portfolio is a hedge against other methods/styles of owning stocks and bonds. It also has to be considered that an individual may have other investments and assets outside of stocks/bonds such as real estate, life insurance, precious metals, crypto currency, potential for earned income, art, familial wealth, etc, etc all leading to a well diversified asset mix which in total is a hedge against any one part of the portfolio failing.

Being young also means you have time to test new strategies, take advantage of change, learn, and most importantly recover from mistakes. As you know when you get old the chances of fully recovering from a serious mistake are more limited so that makes for a more defensive strategy in just about every facet of our lives.

Oh and it's a cool hobby. I have an account that I play around with that will be the kids someday. She said just buy apple so that's what I did 6 years ago. She is looking pretty good right now. There is no reason to doubt young people's instincts just because they are young and have unproven ideas and mostly their situations are completely different than our own.

[Ted Striker]

Edit3. XOM reiterates its dividend is "extremely secure" thus increasing my conviction that it belongs in my grandpa boomer account. Will try to sell more CSPs to leg into more. So far its produced beautifully yielding in the low teens.

Missed this edit yesterday. Yeah, as much fun as 2020 day trading was, XOM was such a simple & easy play.

[uglymoney]

Oh, ok, it's a cool hobby. But, how does it perform? Beats the market over a decade?


A responsible argument after saying "performance lags" has to be backed up with numbers. What's your benchmark? How is individual stock picking and speculation better, or worse, performing than just sitting with a low cost 70/30 index strategy? Over what time period? Has to be at least ten years, maybe 20-50 in my book. There were plenty of self regarded geniuses in 1928 who were in soup lines in 1931.

Bogle says you're a fool if you're buying individual stocks and market timing, and he's written a collection of books filled with concrete research backing that up. What's your justification?

All of this seems obvious to you but not everyone is wired like you and the markets need both kinds of people. My 'uglymoney' moniker came from the early days of the Yahoo stock message boards. I wasted so much time. I realized I suffered from decision paralysis on both the buy a sell side so I gave up and became the buy and hold and index guy and started wasting my time on ski message boards instead.

I have never been able to follow the logic layed out by guys like Leelau when he talks strategy...or even more confounding lol the so called 'technical traders'. It makes no sense to me. Be it my lack of ability to follow the nuance or lack of interest or it really does make no sense is lost on me. I just dunno.

Isn't it still fun to buy individual stocks now and again for long plays though? Or there was a mini discussion here on Brk.b the other day. I bought some of that a couple years ago when I realized Berkshire owns a company I wanted to invest in. Not that I think they hold the winning hand and will beat the index funds. They own shit those funds don't so why not.

I guess my point is...I agree...but it has as much to do with who I am as the math.

[pureantigravity]

of interest or it really does make no sense is lost on me. I just dunno.

Isn't it still fun to buy individual stocks now and again for long plays though? Or there was a mini discussion here on Brk.b the other day. I bought some of that a couple years ago when I realized Berkshire owns a company I wanted to invest in. Not that I think they hold the winning hand and will beat the index funds. They own shit those funds don't so why not.

I guess my point is...I agree...but it has as much to do with who I am as the math.

My BRK.B is up this week. Great success!

[Benny Profane]

Well, again, this bothers me :" It means a nice safe slow grind of a path but also means their performance lags and their view looks back." Of course most sensible people look back, because we can, and that's where all the data comes from. It's all we have. You don't know shit about the future. Nobody does. It's a total mystery. So how can you make decisions dependant on fantasies?

[mfcf13]

Well, again, this bothers me :" It means a nice safe slow grind of a path but also means their performance lags and their view looks back." Of course most sensible people look back, because we can, and that's where all the data comes from. It's all we have. You don't know shit about the future. Nobody does. It's a total mystery. So how can you make decisions dependant on fantasies?

Benny's second favorite hobby is to drop some shrooms and write existential letters to the Wall Street Journal.

[pureantigravity]

What I Learned from Warren Buffett
https://hbr.org/1996/01/what-i-learn...warren-buffett

Just read this Bill Gates on Warren Buffet piece about their introduction in 1996. As per today's quarterly report, not much has changed about Buffet's style. They are sitting on a huge pile of cash right now - a testament to their patience in choosing the right companies. I read last years annual report and it was a fun read (a rare phenomenon in financial stuff).

Admittedly, I've got a bit of a hard-on for Warren Buffet -- especially this last year. Berkshire long term is amazing and the 10 year performance is really good too. Since inception, Berkshire has returned 20.9% compounded per annum. I didn't realize just 'how good' his good was until this year. My apologies in advance for bringing him up so much lately.

[rod9301]

Buffet is sitting on a huge pile of cash because everything is really expensive and you CAN'T make money when you buy expensive stocks.
You buy us stocks now and the guaranteed negative returns over the next 10 years of so.

While emerging markets are priced for real returns of 6+percent per year. And spain, Poland, russia, brazil and others.

This is not running the market. It's just saying, too expensive to play.

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[pureantigravity]

Buffet is sitting on a huge pile of cash because everything is really expensive and you CAN'T make money when you buy expensive stocks.
You buy us stocks now and the guaranteed negative returns over the next 10 years of so.

While emerging markets are priced for real returns of 6+percent per year. And spain, Poland, russia, brazil and others.

This is not running the market. It's just saying, too expensive to play.

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Good to hear your take. I probably should have said "right opportunities". It will be interesting to see where he eventually does put it.

Do you think he is priced out? How do you see them resolving this?

[LeeLau]

NKLA unlocks over 100m shares shortly. Scaling into a bear position

[sklar]

NKLA unlocks over 100m shares shortly. Scaling into a bear position

My puts I bought at open today are already printing

[LeeLau]

My puts I bought at open today are already printing

I almost want a bear spread on NKLA but the idea of owning any NKLA is frankly nauseating. Perhaps just keep it to a pure short.

Edit. Shorted NKLA in same ratio as puts. Can't see it recovering short term

[rod9301]

Good to hear your take. I probably should have said "right opportunities". It will be interesting to see where he eventually does put it.

Do you think he is priced out? How do you see them resolving this?

Not sure what you mean by priced out, but i think he's waiting for much better deals. Patience is good.

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[rod9301]

I almost want a bear spread on NKLA but the idea of owning any NKLA is frankly nauseating. Perhaps just keep it to a pure short.

Edit. Shorted NKLA in same ratio as puts. Can't see it recovering short term

I've been short for a while so maybe biased, but i don't see them doing much business wise, so stock will probably go way down

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[4matic]

Pain for ARKK is in stocks like ZM and ROKU. Zoom reminds me of Netscape. Roku is good product but competition is stiff.

[BobMc]

A few years ago I had a regular customer bring in his car after hitting debris on the highway, we fixed all the mechanical issues and subbed out the bodywork. He received and cashed a check from the insurance company then wrote me a bad check to pay for it all.

He wouldn’t make good on the check and I got the police involved, it was a 4k bill so the police were actually very helpful. I pressed fraud charges on his ass, had to go to court and testify and he was found guilty. Probation and “restitution.” (Which he never paid.)

Luckily the state of Utah is fairly good about that shit. I’m no longer mad about it, so I chuckle every year when around tax time I get a check from the state in the amount of his tax return. As he’s dumb enough to think I’d take a 4k loss and not contact the police he doesn’t seem to change his deductions to not get a refund every year.

Today I got a check for $385. Since it’s basically found money every year I figured I’d put it in the market and smile while he funds my retirement.

Picked up 16 more shares of EPD with my found money. Just gained another $28.80/yr in dividend money, love that 7.7% yield. They reported pretty good quarterly numbers a few days ago, I like them as a long time hold and will continue loading up. I’m already gonna have to file k-1’s, may as well make some money.

[Danno]

Cool story, bro.

Literally, cool story.

I'm glad I'm not a small business owner.

[Ted Striker]

Yeah, that is good.