Is the stock market going to tank?

[gravitylover]

Huh, and here I thought it was just me. Talking to the youngins, I suggest the most important career goal is to be set up so once you hit your 50's you're in a solid career and position to last out into retirement (think partner in a large law firm, dentist, owner of a successful business, whatever) as I know so many people and myself that got crushed in their 50's.

I thought I had that. Growing, thriving business in a solid market with a great staff and I helped him grow it from $1.5mil to almost 6 in the main store while we opened 3 more stores. Unfortunately nepotism ruined it for me. It only makes me feel a little bit better that his sons have pretty much ruined the whole show and they've closed the original big dollar store and one of the others might be on the chopping block this winter. He even admitted to me last summer that I was right about what ended up happening and apologized for letting me go and ruining everything for both of us.

[Stu Gotz]

depends on the company. work somewhere that to some degree pays based on merit and yer good. work somewhere old n slow and yer fucked.

If you're in the C suite or a $ maker for the firm, then yes. But eventually you price yourself out of a job. "Why are we paying Bob 250K in marketing, communications, accounting, etc." will always come up. The peak earnings years have been pushed back to the 40's and after that you'd better be prepared to self-employ. This is something that secondary education is going to have to deal with. Very few families are going to have peak earnings when their kids are entering college.

[iceman]

@GL: Sounds like a business opportunity. Seriously though.

[gravitylover]

^^ Ice if I had the money to play in the NYC market I'd consider it especially as several of the other og's are aging out and closing their stores. Unfortunately the $$ aren't there but if somebody tossed the money at me I'd give it a go.

[Harry]

Why would the market stall out? I'm no expert on finances by any means but am a reader of history and history has shown the market either climbs or it crashes.

From 1965 to 1983, almost 20 years, the Dow was flat.

[AKPogue]

From 1965 to 1983, almost 20 years, the Dow was flat.

Huh?
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow...storical-chart

[4matic]

Sp500 return calculator

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

[4matic]

High by most most measures
http://www.multpl.com

[sirbumpsalot]

The current issue is volatility more than stagnation. Something is forcing selling. That something needs to run its course and equity pressure will subside. Check out this take: http://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...N_2018_12_16_0

Attachment 260392

[Cono Este]

Huh, and here I thought it was just me. Talking to the yougins, I suggest the most important career goal is to be set up so once you hit your 50's you're in a solid career and position to last out into retirement (think partner in a large law firm, dentist, owner of a successful business, whatever) as I know so many people and myself that got crushed in their 50's.

You have to be realistic. If you did not have someone holding your dick through life you’re going to make mistakes. I wish I had stuck with the SD lifeguards or became a fireman, but I was fascinated by the markets and absolutely killed it in my 20’s. No regrets. But like a lot of other careers, technology replaced 90% of us. I was also ill prepared for the thieves that come out when you make it. Things they don’t teach in business school and what you might learn at the dinner table growing up if your parents owned their business or were lawyers. Otherwise, your never going to bat 1000 on your own. Most people got where they are by hard work, but most have what they have by dumb luck. They just don’t know it.

My advice to the youth is to always have a plan, and come up with a new one fast if someone rips up your old one.


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[skaredshtles]

<snip>

My advice to the youth is to always have a plan

My advice to the youth is to not waste your 20's working too much.

[Cono Este]

Trump gap closing


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[4matic]

Year to date low close SP500?

[Bunion 2020]

Year to date low close SP500?

Don't remind me. I was mostly cash in my IRA and felt like I had taken it about as far as I could given my lack of education in investing and my attention span.

I turned it over to a Financial Manager right before the wheels came off and they did what they do and fully invested me. It has been a painful couple of weeks.

[liv2ski]

Fuck...vibes buddy. Decades ago I read if your down 10%, sell. Then reevaluate the position to see if you want to enter again at some point.

[Bunion 2020]

It is what it is. I was pretty much cash for the last one and made out pretty well in the long run. Currently I am off about 9% for the high water mark and 6% from when I turned it over to the Pros.

I am starting a 401K for my business and will stick the max contributions into it. I see that as a buying opportunity.

[406]

^^^ouch...

I'm stoked I rebalanced 401k for the year to 30% guaranteed 2% from SP500 index fund. So at least only 70% of portfolio is down for the year :eyeroll:
Buy the drop...upped contributions in Nov to max.

[4matic]

These 500 point moves up or down seem manipulative. Is 2% move where the bots target?

[4matic]

Trump gap closing


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What price you got for that? Top of monthly support is 2200+-. Previous monthly low should offer some support.

Quarterly expiration this Friday

[Benny Profane]

The real problem is hindsight.

Not really a problem. More a learning experience.

[4matic]

It is what it is. I was pretty much cash for the last one and made out pretty well in the long run. Currently I am off about 9% for the high water mark and 6% from when I turned it over to the Pros.

I am starting a 401K for my business and will stick the max contributions into it. I see that as a buying opportunity.

Sucks. CFA’s and the like can’t really afford to have opinions anymore. It’s all allocation formula using backward looking metrics. I’m stubborn enough to have opinions. I went mostly flat equity in April 2017 so I’m about even from there. Up maybe 2-3% If you look at it in that respect 9% drawdown is no big deal. I just can’t stomach that much risk anymore and grateful I locked in a 3.5% yield in October.

A stock like ATT is getting interesting for me. 7% yield with a 6 PE?

[Talisman]

A stock like ATT is getting interesting for me. 7% yield with a 6 PE?

Does the ATT debt concern you as a risk factor?

[4matic]

Does the ATT debt concern you as a risk factor?

Sure. They could go bankrupt, cut the dividend, cut prices. Lots of risk. Thats why 7%

Im kinda liking GM on more market weakness.

I like JPM but it was trading $60 pre Trump.

[Cono Este]

You can’t trust any advisor to look out for you. They are not paid on cash holdings. They invest you and take a %. But in all fairness, what do you expect?

I think 2000-2250 is reasonable just from selling. 30-40% off high. I might buy a share or two. Unless of course there is some kind of world wide disaster no one has told us about. Mueller report? 4 yrs of impeachment and gridlock? Chinese trade disruption ripples through economy?

Basically what Polyass has been praying for. Hope they’re all short.


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[Tips^Up]

FOMO got me to buy BTC and LTC 1 year ago. Gambled with money I could afford to lose, $1,150. At Christmas, gave $10 worth to my 3 bros because I'd need heli-skiing partners. Present value = $163. Not really a loss until I sell! Right? Right?! It can't go negative...right?