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  1. #8201
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtnwriter View Post
    Is Benny saying zerohedge was always cuckoo for coco puffs? There is some serious revisionist history right there. There were times when Benny quoted ZH multiple times in a thread in minutes - and usually about the impending end of the world.


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  2. #8202
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    September, a good time to sell and go on vacation for a bit.

    Our massively inflated debt-fueled standard of living is completely and utterly dependent on the continual creation of more debt.

    In essence, this study found that without debt we wouldn’t have much of an economy at all. In fact, Bloomberg says that U.S. per capita income would collapse from $66,900 a year to “negative $4,857”…

    To get this somewhat dystopian measure, Bloomberg took each economy’s 2020 GDP as projected by the International Monetary Fund as a starting point. We then adjusted the number by removing the ability to borrow, while adding reserves to create an alternative wealth measure.

    U.S. per capita income of $66,900 would be slashed to a negative $4,857 using this measure. That’s a total loss of almost $72,000 for every man, woman and child.

    So the only thing keeping us from complete and total economic collapse is the fact that debt is flowing like wine.

    But what would happen if some sort of major national crisis erupted someday and all of a sudden everyone was afraid to lend money?

    That is something to think about, because such a scenario may be a whole lot closer than many people might think.

    As it stands, we appear to be on the precipice of the worst economic downturn since the last financial crisis, and our trade war with China just went to an entirely new level as the month of September began…

    The biggest reason for last week’s torrid stock market rally was rekindled “optimism” that the escalating trade war between the US and China may be on the verge of another ceasefire following phone conversations, fake as they may have been, between the US and Chinese side. This translated into speculation that a new round of tariffs increases slated for this weekend may not take place or be delayed.

    However, that did not happen, and with no trade deal in sight, at 12:00am on Sunday, the Trump administration slapped tariffs on $112 billion in Chinese imports, the latest escalation in a trade war that’s ground the global economy to a halt, sent Germany into a recession, and given the market an alibi to keep rising because, wait for it, “a trade deal is imminent.”

    Only, it isn’t, and 1 minute later, at 12:01am EDT, China retaliated with higher tariffs being rolled out in stages on a total of about $75 billion of U.S. goods. The target list strikes at the heart of Trump’s political support – factories and farms across the Midwest and South at a time when the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.

    The Chinese knew that these tariffs were about to go into effect, and so they were ready and waiting to retaliate just one minute later.

    Of course many U.S. companies will be hit extremely hard by these tariffs that the Trump administration just implemented. The following comes from CNBC…

    That means that when an electronics company imports a TV, or a smart speaker, or a drone from China starting September 1, it will have to pay a 15% tax to the U.S. government.

    Eventually, this will end up raising prices on gadgets and other products for people in the United States, said Bronwyn Flores, a spokeswoman for the Consumer Tech Association (CTA), a trade group that represents 2,000 different companies in the electronics industry, including brands like Apple and LG and retailers like Walmart and Best Buy.

    Basically, people are not going to be able to buy as much stuff during the holiday shopping season, and overall economic activity will be slower than it otherwise would have been.

    Meanwhile, President Trump continues to sound hopeful that trade talks with China will bear fruit…

    President Donald Trump said trade talks with Beijing are still planned for September after a new round of tariffs went into effect on Sunday.

    “We are talking to China, the meetings in September, that hasn’t changed,” Trump told reporters Sunday on the White House South Lawn after returning from Camp David.

    These sorts of comments helped stabilize the financial markets last week, but if there was any hope that a trade agreement was imminent we would not have seen both sides impose new tariffs on Sunday.

    And now we are moving into the month that is traditionally the worst for Wall Street. The following comes from Fox Business…

    Investors may breathe a sigh of relief that August, typically a volatile month for stocks, is over, but history shows that September could be even worse for Wall Street.

    Since 1950, September has been the worst month for the S&P 500 Index, which has dropped, on average, 0.5% during the month, a phenomenon referred to as the September effect. According to Dow Jones market data, the average decline of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in September is 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite generally sees an average fall of 0.5%.

    We shall see what this September brings. Certainly things are really shaky on Wall Street right now, and any piece of really bad news is likely to set off another wave of panic.

    Without a doubt, the market is more primed for a crash than it has been at any point since 2008, and it definitely will not take much to make this a “September to remember”...


    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...depression-new
    If your model produces an answer that makes no sense, the model likely contains a significant flaw or the premise(s) it is built on is wrong. This analysis is interesting from an academic standpoint but should not be taken at face value by the general public.

  3. #8203
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    Hey, no worries guys. I have been out of the markets for a long time. I will revisit them once there has been a sizable correction. And I am in no hurry.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  4. #8204
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Really. Do tell. Are you drunk?
    I wish. I’m on vacation with kids and in bed by 9 or 10. I am having a bloody now before the beach.

    That said I’m not going through all the posts on here for years to start finding all your ZH cut and pastes. And for the record you were the Eeyore that whole time during the crash - and then the next few years you oscillated between real estate crashes, debt bubbles, getting on the recovery bandwagon etc etc.

    No one knows what’s going on at this point. We’re in uncharted waters. Everyone is manipulating their rates or fx or both. Who knows what Trump will try to stimulate the economy before the next election.

    The US is definitely giving up its economic leadership to China, slowly. Some things seem pretty open to using the past to interpretation but aren’t that straight forward - see curve inversions.

    I do think the income inequality and erosion of the middle class is slowly creating a future class war. This time it’s more coasts vs. flyover instead of north vs. south.

    It’s fucking creepy going back to where I grew up and there’s no jobs and everyone has a gun and loves trump.

    I’m not looking to start shit with you though Benny. It’s never worth the fight and it’s like playing tennis against a wall.


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  5. #8205
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    How is hotter? Smarter?





  6. #8206
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    How is hotter? Smarter?

    she talks like her face is filled with Botox.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin

  7. #8207
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtnwriter View Post
    The US is definitely giving up its economic leadership to China, slowly. Some things seem pretty open to using the past to interpretation but aren’t that straight forward - see curve inversions.
    There's lots of interesting data coming out in the press about showing just how financially important Hong Kong is to China as an interface to the west and what failures some of china's other leadership initiatives have been. Look at the outpouring of creativity in the protests which shows the exact creative culture China needs to surplant the US and the CCP views that as it's enemy. Look at the outflow of manufacturing from China to other nations in Asia. Which is to argue the relative decline of the US is not the same as the rise of China. I admit to believing the two were the same for a long time, I think times have changed.

  8. #8208
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    she talks like her face is filled with Botox.
    TR brain is filled with Botox. Such empty thought.

  9. #8209
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    using my jacket research to interpret micro example of IP theft and currency manipulation

    1) Ip theft*
    I went to a major sourcing event in Las Vegas in about 2016. There was a factory rep booth from China with a sample of one of my competitors branded ski pants hanging in their booth. They made them. I told them I did not have any patterns and wanted to make that exact ski pant. That exact pattern. They said no problem. Give them the order and they would supply that pattern since they had it in their possession. I know that the brand had their own contract pattern maker. While garments cannot be patented, patterns are copyrighted and considered ip the same as an architect's drawings.

    2) currency manipulation
    Same event. I visited with probably 5-8 different booths representing China manufacturers who produced ski wear. Every single booth said the price of a fully seam taped jacket, (really almost any jacket including 3 in 1 zip in fleece to shell types) were $25 ea total, Minimum order is 1000 units. I thought this to be odd, in that 3 in 1 jackets were actually 2 jackets and double fabric and labor. From my experience sourcing in the USA, I know that they were selling the entire garment for less than it cost to buy just the materials from manufacturers domestically (fabric, zippers) . [ *The fabric and zippers they offered were generic but knocked off brands such as YKK (another ip and patent issue in and of itself)]. The missing components still to account for in their pricing were a) more materials b) labor c) their profit.

    Watching the above British accented voice from China reminds me that actions speak louder than words.
    My Company: Made in Colorado SKi Clothing- check it out

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  10. #8210
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    US companies steal IP from themselves every day. Apple lost this case:

    "Qualcomm says that Apple has been stealing its wireless technology for several years in order to eventually rid itself of the need to rely on Qualcomm components. Apple is alleged to have given Qualcomm’s code to Intel, in order to boost Intel’s modem speeds, which are known to be slower."

  11. #8211
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    4matic comes from the economic school of nihilism.

    Slight difference in commercial cat & mouse & the 2nd biggest economy in the world deploying state resources in a coordinated fashion to subvert international standards & steal what they're too lazy/incapable of producing themselves.

    Chinese success is dependent on stealing shit from other people. It's part survival, part growth strategy.

    The USA exports innovation for a modest fee. Big difference.


  12. #8212
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    US companies steal IP from themselves every day. Apple lost this case:

    "Qualcomm says that Apple has been stealing its wireless technology for several years in order to eventually rid itself of the need to rely on Qualcomm components. Apple is alleged to have given Qualcomm’s code to Intel, in order to boost Intel’s modem speeds, which are known to be slower."
    yeah but at least there is a legal process to address and possibly gain a reprieve against a theft
    My Company: Made in Colorado SKi Clothing- check it out

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  13. #8213
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    True capitalism is nihilist. It has to be.

  14. #8214
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    True capitalism is nihilist. It has to be.
    I'm starting to think the 'big trade' you made to set you up for life was marrying a CCP member. There is nothing true or capitalist about communist statecraft.

  15. #8215
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    I'm starting to think the 'big trade' you made to set you up for life was marrying a CCP member. There is nothing true or capitalist about communist statecraft.
    GF was never a CP member and likes Trump. Thinks China is liar and cheat.

    Blame is a fools game in all this. Regulate domestically. We allowed these companies to sell out and now we blame the host.

  16. #8216
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    GF was never a CP member and likes Trump. Thinks China is liar and cheat.

    Blame is a fools game in all this. Regulate domestically. We allowed these companies to sell out and now we blame the host.
    Sounds like the woman in the relationship is the one with sense. Disengagement & containment are what's appropriate for China now with respect to US dom+foreign policy. And it's what's generally being delivered. War would be an externality, not the ends sought.

  17. #8217
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    I make my own judgements and opportunities. The idea that one is more complicit than the other doesn’t weigh my decisions.

    Somebody wins. Somebody loses.

    GF is US citizen fwiw. Homeowner. Runs a business.


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  18. #8218
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post

    GF is US citizen fwiw. Homeowner. Runs a business.


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    does she have a sister?
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  19. #8219
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    Quote Originally Posted by MiCol View Post
    does she have a sister?
    A couple of hot nieces are always looking. Gf always trying to hook up her friends.

    Her other two sisters are considerably older and both are party members but nonetheless pretty cool.
    Middle sister drives a Hummer in China and does business all over Asia.

  20. #8220
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    Patent infringement as the example of US company stealing? What a bullshitter.
    The example to use is Lewandowski, who straight up stole if charges are to be believed and was arrested and is going to trial for theft. That's the difference between China and the US - ones charged and facing stiff jail time, in China it's a promotion and a pat on the back from the quasi-government employer.

    "not a party member, but the relatives are party members", lol.

  21. #8221
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    Reality: commanding heights of global economy have been shared by govts & private COs since WWII/inception of Bretton Woods system of international trade. It's called the 'mixed system' where mutual respect & cooperation is the lynchpin that allows continents with varying interests to succeed together & promote general quality of living improvements.

    CCP Line: Because <1> some US firm stole from another US firm it's ok for <2> CCP to direct the entire Chinese commercial & govt networks in tandem to steal Western IP. Nevermind that <1> is the exception with legal recourse and <2> is the rule with no such remedy. The critical thing here is to muddy the waters & present the situation through the lens of nihilism. Reference pure capitalism despite there being no trace of pure capitalism anywhere on the planet.

    Note how that Chinese anchor is very clear about *not* setting out a positive argument for the validity of Chinese statecraft mixing in trade affairs. She instead gaslights & feigns intellectual superiority while failing to really say anything. Fox sucks generally but they do have ground to stand on in terms of at least trying to outline the flaws of a system where one side continually exploits the honesty of the other.

    The vacuity of CCP logic here is a great signal in terms of which side holds the strong hand.

  22. #8222
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post

    "not a party member, but the relatives are party members", lol.
    Depends when you were born. Membership is no longer mandatory, in fact, only 90m people are card carrying members. It’s not much different than having a rep or dem in the same house.

  23. #8223
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    For reference, I have never visited China, never plan to visit China, and have zero desire to visit.


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  24. #8224
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    So you're not a member, you just play one on the internet.

  25. #8225
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    So you're not a member, you just play one on the internet.
    You’re no different than anyone else speculating on truth. You’re starting to act more and more like spook with with snarky know it all comments.

    Who told you for months rates were going a lot lower?

    You still holding that shit bag of small cap?

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