Is the stock market going to tank?

**DBdude** · 03-22-2018, 02:44 PM

what's the VIX doing?

self answer - it's up

**Toadman** · 03-22-2018, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

24190 DJIA is the lowest weekly close since November. 60 points away right now. Should be some support here because of that. If we drop through here with any momentum look out below. Another 4% could happen in a hurry.

You were saying...

**4matic** · 03-22-2018, 03:04 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

You were saying...

Look at the hourly chart. Bounced 300 points off 24190 intraday. The next move down didn't hold and it was all over.

Yeah, the vix. I don't really follow it so just noticed. Wow..

**Mazderati** · 03-22-2018, 06:53 PM

Facebook down you say?

**jackstraw** · 03-22-2018, 07:03 PM

Yeah, all true but something doesn't feel right. I tweaked my robot down to minimum risk tolerance. With my E-Trade I might liquidate even more than the 25% I already did.

**SumJongGuy** · 03-22-2018, 07:04 PM

Originally Posted by F#*k You Cat

Seriously - who is contemplating pulling everything out before the real bottom drops out? Have any of you financial wizards discussed this with your planners?
Basically hedging against a serious drop. Having cash now vs stuck loosing half like last time in the recession of 2008.

That kind of move only pays off if, IF, the funds in the portfolio that you remove plummet over 30% within the same tax year after you cash them out.... Unless you are over 65 (or it isn't a 401K retirement investment) the tax penalties offset any possible loss avoided by taking them out of the market. You can move them to other approved 401K plans but pretty much everything will take a hit. Roth IRAs give a little more flexibility but still big penalties for pulling out.

**skaredshtles** · 03-22-2018, 07:14 PM

Ahhh... people attempting to time the market.

Will they never learn?

**Brock Landers** · 03-22-2018, 07:39 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

I keep asking that and keep hearing: Earnings - good. Unemployment-good. Inflation-good. Fed-good. Tax plan will benefit business. "Sit tight" is what I'm told.

A little white-knucklish today though. I felt kinda sick for months last time around but sat tight and it eventually worked out, so...who the fuck knows?

I'm on board with this. Inflation, earnings, and global growth. Fed didn't say/do anything crazy.

Expect more volatility than last year. Doesn't mean it will be a down year. Last year was the absolute anomaly. Valuations high, forward valuations also high, but PEG ratios not high at all. 4Q earnings growth was 15%.

5% corrections happen all the time in a typical, healthy period. Don't let 2017's snoozefest environment alter expectations. I would move some fixed income money out of high grade corporates into bank loan funds though.

**Bromontana** · 03-22-2018, 08:29 PM

Neb

**4matic** · 03-22-2018, 08:49 PM

US Futures down another 1% tonight. HSI down almost 4%.

**4matic** · 03-22-2018, 09:34 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

I keep asking that and keep hearing: Earnings - good. Unemployment-good. Inflation-good. Fed-good. Tax plan will benefit business. "Sit tight" is what I'm told.

Sure. The PE ratio could retrace to 20 and not affect one of those measures. It would still be 30% above the mean.

**iceman** · 03-22-2018, 09:45 PM

Originally Posted by Bromontana

Neb Tnuh haunts me. Kinda long but entertaining and informing. It actually ties together a few dysfunctional components to explain a broader reset.

http://epsilontheory.com/the-icarus-moment/

That was a good piece, thank you. Maybe a little longer and more poetic than it really needed to be but thought-provoking.

**Bromontana** · 03-22-2018, 11:14 PM

A cheap canary for irrational bullishness like TSLA can be a useful proxy. If distressed debt backed by underwater assets can be priced within 10pts of par, it's really not bad out there.

Seems to me the trade stuff is noise for now.

**iceman** · 03-23-2018, 08:07 AM

Trumpf like the headlines. Likes shaking people up for ratings effects. But see what's happening on metals, a big news blast then quiet backpedaling. I'd expect similar on China. And some pushback on those thieves isn't necessarily a bad thing anyways.

**4matic** · 03-23-2018, 08:25 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

Trumpf like the headlines. Likes shaking people up for ratings effects. But see what's happening on metals, a big news blast then quiet backpedaling. I'd expect similar on China. And some pushback on those thieves isn't necessarily a bad thing anyways.

The biggest thieves just got a massive tax cut for their own benefit. China has a lot of cash.

I wouldn’t be shocked this were a collusive deal between Xi and Don. They both like the spotlight and glamour.

**4matic** · 03-23-2018, 08:27 AM

For stocks. Today is important only if they move big either way. At least 2-3%. A flat day means nothing.

**Cono Este** · 03-23-2018, 02:04 PM

I think it was options expiration today. Usually that means quiet time. Not good.

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**jackstraw** · 03-23-2018, 02:43 PM

Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

That kind of move only pays off if, IF, the funds in the portfolio that you remove plummet over 30% within the same tax year after you cash them out.... Unless you are over 65 (or it isn't a 401K retirement investment) the tax penalties offset any possible loss avoided by taking them out of the market. You can move them to other approved 401K plans but pretty much everything will take a hit. Roth IRAs give a little more flexibility but still big penalties for pulling out.

"...By March 6, 2009 the DJIA had dropped 54% to 6,469 (before beginning to recover) from its peak of 14,164 on October 9, 2007, over a span of 17 months"

The next fall is going to be bigger and that is based on no factual components whatsoever to this potentially false presumption.

**Benny Profane** · 03-23-2018, 04:20 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

The biggest thieves just got a massive tax cut for their own benefit. China has a lot of cash.

I wouldn’t be shocked this were a collusive deal between Xi and Don. They both like the spotlight and glamour.

You give that fool way too much credit, like most. But, fascinating conspiracy theory. Pitch CNN.

**4matic** · 03-23-2018, 05:08 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I think it was options expiration today. Usually that means quiet time. Not good.

Quarterly was last week unless the 2nd was a holiday. Always have weekly options now. Too much..

SPY closed right on the 200 dma. I don’t look at ma’s much. Straight lines for me.

Leveraged dividend etn’s are getting interesting. Tax free yields at 7%.

**F#*k you cat** · 03-23-2018, 09:09 PM

FYI. The stock market dropped 40% during Watergate and did not recover until Reagan was elected in 1980

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**4matic** · 03-23-2018, 09:21 PM

Originally Posted by F#*k You Cat

FYI. The stock market dropped 40% during Watergate and did not recover until Reagan was elected in 1980

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The 2000-2015 period was just as bad. The SPY had negative return for almost 15 years.

**F#*k you cat** · 03-23-2018, 09:26 PM

OPEC embargo during the Carter administration. Remember the lines for gas.

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**F#*k you cat** · 03-23-2018, 09:27 PM

Anyone seeing any parallels to the current administration

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**Bromontana** · 03-23-2018, 09:31 PM

Originally Posted by F#*k You Cat

FYI. The stock market dropped 40% during Watergate and did not recover until Reagan was elected in 1980

I read today it's likely a RICO case involving Congress. Amidst the hydrant of noise, things like Rohrbacher, slow rolling sanctions & managing foreign policy pre-inauguration are kind of illegal & rare.

Some ideas I've been working on... HMY seems like a leader in gold names. Oil looks to have a few bullish narratives taking shape (I like PBT). And lots of shorts.