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  1. #16326
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    18,784

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Xpeng, $XPEV has an average analyst price of $280. Trading at $30. Watched a review on the p7 that sells for $35k. Impressive package.

    Another interesting stock is JOBY trading at $5. Itís well capitalized

    https://www.jobyaviation.com

    https://app.dealroom.co/companies/joby_aviation

  2. #16327
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    Mar 2006
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    2y rate crashes back below 3%. Down 50bp from its recent high. 10y on the verge. 3% is support for the 10y so Iíd like to see a close or three below. At this point an aggressive Fed move will flatten the curve.

  3. #16328
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    6,558
    Itís already flatÖat this point aggressive fed will invert it.

    Buy bonds!!
    Decisions Decisions

  4. #16329
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    Apr 2006
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    Movin' On
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    August WTI is the only month over $100 now

    20 month low in copper.

    Corn and Wheat at risk for much larger declines.
    I really didn't expect food commodities to come down given the issues in Ukraine.

  5. #16330
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    9,300ft
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    RIO on sale. Exchanged some FLNG for it.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  6. #16331
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    I really didn't expect food commodities to come down given the issues in Ukraine.
    Wheat and corn are down 20% from recent high. Corn is down 6% today. Nat Gas is down another 9%, 30% below itís recent high

  7. #16332
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    Mar 2006
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    RIO on sale. Exchanged some FLNG for it.
    Copper was 30% lower than it is now pre-pandemic and is working on 13 straight days of decline.

    RIO dividend @13% is pretty attractive

  8. #16333
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Behind the Zion Curtain
    Posts
    4,408
    Bought back my MRO put for $53 today, made $40. I possibly could’ve kept the entire $93, but I took the for sure money and ran.

    My yearly customer that fucked me bonus came today. Dude frauded me out of several K a few years ago, convicted and I get his tax return as “restitution” every year. He still hasn’t figured out how to increase dependents to owe every year, this year his return was $412.

    Thinking of throwing it into something riskier, may grab 36 more shares of CMPS. It’s been creeping up lately and I wish I’d bought more shares when it was in the $6’s.

    I still have enough cash to sell puts on sub $36 stocks. Puts have become my favorite method, I liked selling calls for a while but don’t ever dig losing shares (even when it worked out with my latest XOM call.). I like the idea of accruing stuff I already want, don’t threaten me with a good time!

    I like the RIO tip, whew, that’s a fat yield. I may pick up a few shares, especially as a “local” company.

  9. #16334
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    Mar 2006
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    Bloomberg saying VIX is low because large hedgers are using futures for pure directional beta rather than options. Record short interest in stock futures.

  10. #16335
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Bloomberg saying VIX is low because large hedgers are using futures for pure directional beta rather than options. Record short interest in stock futures.
    What does that mean for retail investors?
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  11. #16336
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    Mar 2006
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    What does that mean for retail investors?
    Demand for options from largest hedgers is down therefore price of options is down which means lower price of volatility.

    Options are complicated math but thatís the simple explanation.

    Options are a wasting asset and with higher rates they become more costly to hold (buy). Risk free interest rate is a major component of option valuation. Therefore, futures are cheaper to use.

  12. #16337
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    Nat gas is almost back to Oct 21 levels.

  13. #16338
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    Jan 2009
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    Squaw valley
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    Wait till the lng vacuity is back on stream in September, and we start shipping to eu again

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

  14. #16339
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    Wait till the lng vacuity is back on stream in September, and we start shipping to eu again

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
    Dec delivery is down 9% today

  15. #16340
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    Jan 2009
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    Squaw valley
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    You could be right.
    I think though that with eu determined to not buy Russian gas, the us will ship a lot of lng, which might keep the price up.

    And the pipeline companies will do ok, because the gas has to be transported to the lng terminals

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

  16. #16341
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    Mar 2006
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    I didnít claim a right or wrong.

  17. #16342
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    1,225
    3rd quarter is looking like an acceleration of the trends of the past 6 months .. Earnings reports and earnings expectations should catch up with already reduced valuations....if sentiment and prices shit the bed.. The 4th quarter might be a great time for a rally..
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  18. #16343
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    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    3rd quarter is looking like an acceleration of the trends of the past 6 months .. Earnings reports and earnings expectations should catch up with already reduced valuations....if sentiment and prices shit the bed.. The 4th quarter might be a great time for a rally..
    10y is down 65bps from its high
    2y is down 50bp from its high

    Pretty good reversal of trend.

  19. #16344
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    Oct 2003
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    1,225
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    10y is down 65bps from its high
    2y is down 50bp from its high

    Pretty good reversal of trend.
    We will see if that sticks ..or not.. I think the most likely sector to possibly reverse is oil .. If
    the possible recession is deep
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  20. #16345
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    b-town, idaho
    Posts
    370
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    10y is down 65bps from its high
    2y is down 50bp from its high

    Pretty good reversal of trend.
    hi 4matic, im a pretty amateur investor and ive been following this thread but only understand bits and pieces....

    what does this mean? specifically what what 10y and 2y trend are you looking at?

  21. #16346
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    Mar 2006
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by pogs4ever View Post
    hi 4matic, im a pretty amateur investor and ive been following this thread but only understand bits and pieces....

    what does this mean? specifically what what 10y and 2y trend are you looking at?
    The current 10y note yield rate hit 3.50% on 6/13 and got as low as 2.87% today.
    350-287=63 so thatís .63% interest rate change lower from the peak to trough in two weeks. Same formula for the 2yr. Thatís a big percentage move but not unusual these days.

    Afa trend Iíd call it neutral now. As the ten year is on support. The two year can easily go back to 2.50%.

    Happy to answer any questions. I saved a one month chart but forum wonít let me post the png from phone.
    Iíll add it from computer later Just change the time frame to one month

    https://data.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y?view=franchise

  22. #16347
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
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    Behind the Zion Curtain
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    4,408
    Looks like I could’ve kept all of my MRO put money, but oh well. The part of me that likes to grab the for sure cash usually out-talks the “we could keep it all” guy.

    After getting beaten up the last few weeks this week was a pleasant reversal. Picked up 10 shares of MO earlier in the week, the whole JUUL thing had them beaten down. I still like the company and finally dipped my toe in. A few days ago I set some buy orders I didn’t think would fill, my AMZN and AAPL orders didn’t fill but the RIO order did. It dived a couple bucks yesterday and my order for 10@ $60 filled, then grabbed 4 more at $58.80 today. If it heads down on Tuesday I’m buying more.

    My transition to an income portfolio is going fairly well. I’m up to $373/month in dividends/distributions. In 10 years that should be a much more significant number.

  23. #16348
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    Thatís good direction Bob. Growth speculation will return at some point.

  24. #16349
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    Interesting that ARKK is up a lot today.

  25. #16350
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    Mar 2006
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    18,784
    The Energy sector $XLE is now down since February 1st. Was up 35% over this period as of June 8th.

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