Is the stock market going to tank?

**4matic** · 06-22-2022, 08:34 PM

Xpeng, $XPEV has an average analyst price of $280. Trading at $30. Watched a review on the p7 that sells for $35k. Impressive package.

Another interesting stock is JOBY trading at $5. It’s well capitalized

https://www.jobyaviation.com

https://app.dealroom.co/companies/joby_aviation

**4matic** · 06-23-2022, 08:30 AM

2y rate crashes back below 3%. Down 50bp from its recent high. 10y on the verge. 3% is support for the 10y so I’d like to see a close or three below. At this point an aggressive Fed move will flatten the curve.

**Brock Landers** · 06-23-2022, 10:30 AM

It’s already flat…at this point aggressive fed will invert it.

Buy bonds!!

**Kevo** · 06-23-2022, 10:50 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

August WTI is the only month over $100 now

20 month low in copper.

Corn and Wheat at risk for much larger declines.

I really didn't expect food commodities to come down given the issues in Ukraine.

**summit** · 06-23-2022, 10:59 AM

RIO on sale. Exchanged some FLNG for it.

**4matic** · 06-23-2022, 11:34 AM

Originally Posted by Kevo

I really didn't expect food commodities to come down given the issues in Ukraine.

Wheat and corn are down 20% from recent high. Corn is down 6% today. Nat Gas is down another 9%, 30% below it’s recent high

**4matic** · 06-23-2022, 11:38 AM

Originally Posted by summit

RIO on sale. Exchanged some FLNG for it.

Copper was 30% lower than it is now pre-pandemic and is working on 13 straight days of decline.

RIO dividend @13% is pretty attractive

**BobMc** · 06-27-2022, 10:09 PM

Bought back my MRO put for $53 today, made $40. I possibly could’ve kept the entire $93, but I took the for sure money and ran.

My yearly customer that fucked me bonus came today. Dude frauded me out of several K a few years ago, convicted and I get his tax return as “restitution” every year. He still hasn’t figured out how to increase dependents to owe every year, this year his return was $412.

Thinking of throwing it into something riskier, may grab 36 more shares of CMPS. It’s been creeping up lately and I wish I’d bought more shares when it was in the $6’s.

I still have enough cash to sell puts on sub $36 stocks. Puts have become my favorite method, I liked selling calls for a while but don’t ever dig losing shares (even when it worked out with my latest XOM call.). I like the idea of accruing stuff I already want, don’t threaten me with a good time!

I like the RIO tip, whew, that’s a fat yield. I may pick up a few shares, especially as a “local” company.

**4matic** · 06-29-2022, 08:11 AM

Bloomberg saying VIX is low because large hedgers are using futures for pure directional beta rather than options. Record short interest in stock futures.

**summit** · 06-29-2022, 01:01 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Bloomberg saying VIX is low because large hedgers are using futures for pure directional beta rather than options. Record short interest in stock futures.

What does that mean for retail investors?

**4matic** · 06-29-2022, 01:13 PM

Originally Posted by summit

What does that mean for retail investors?

Demand for options from largest hedgers is down therefore price of options is down which means lower price of volatility.

Options are complicated math but that’s the simple explanation.

Options are a wasting asset and with higher rates they become more costly to hold (buy). Risk free interest rate is a major component of option valuation. Therefore, futures are cheaper to use.

**4matic** · 06-30-2022, 08:58 AM

Nat gas is almost back to Oct 21 levels.

**rod9301** · 06-30-2022, 09:23 AM

Wait till the lng vacuity is back on stream in September, and we start shipping to eu again

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

**4matic** · 06-30-2022, 09:45 AM

Originally Posted by rod9301

Wait till the lng vacuity is back on stream in September, and we start shipping to eu again

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

Dec delivery is down 9% today

**rod9301** · 06-30-2022, 10:20 AM

You could be right.
I think though that with eu determined to not buy Russian gas, the us will ship a lot of lng, which might keep the price up.

And the pipeline companies will do ok, because the gas has to be transported to the lng terminals

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

**4matic** · 06-30-2022, 11:43 AM

I didn’t claim a right or wrong.

**up an down** · 07-01-2022, 07:10 AM

3rd quarter is looking like an acceleration of the trends of the past 6 months .. Earnings reports and earnings expectations should catch up with already reduced valuations....if sentiment and prices shit the bed.. The 4th quarter might be a great time for a rally..

**4matic** · 07-01-2022, 07:54 AM

Originally Posted by up an down

3rd quarter is looking like an acceleration of the trends of the past 6 months .. Earnings reports and earnings expectations should catch up with already reduced valuations....if sentiment and prices shit the bed.. The 4th quarter might be a great time for a rally..

10y is down 65bps from its high
2y is down 50bp from its high

Pretty good reversal of trend.

**up an down** · 07-01-2022, 08:21 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

10y is down 65bps from its high
2y is down 50bp from its high

Pretty good reversal of trend.

We will see if that sticks ..or not.. I think the most likely sector to possibly reverse is oil .. If
the possible recession is deep

**pogs4ever** · 07-01-2022, 01:21 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

10y is down 65bps from its high
2y is down 50bp from its high

Pretty good reversal of trend.

hi 4matic, im a pretty amateur investor and ive been following this thread but only understand bits and pieces....

what does this mean? specifically what what 10y and 2y trend are you looking at?

**4matic** · 07-01-2022, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by pogs4ever

hi 4matic, im a pretty amateur investor and ive been following this thread but only understand bits and pieces....

what does this mean? specifically what what 10y and 2y trend are you looking at?

The current 10y note yield rate hit 3.50% on 6/13 and got as low as 2.87% today.
350-287=63 so that’s .63% interest rate change lower from the peak to trough in two weeks. Same formula for the 2yr. That’s a big percentage move but not unusual these days.

Afa trend I’d call it neutral now. As the ten year is on support. The two year can easily go back to 2.50%.

Happy to answer any questions. I saved a one month chart but forum won’t let me post the png from phone.
I’ll add it from computer later Just change the time frame to one month

https://data.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y?view=franchise

**BobMc** · 07-01-2022, 05:58 PM

Looks like I could’ve kept all of my MRO put money, but oh well. The part of me that likes to grab the for sure cash usually out-talks the “we could keep it all” guy.

After getting beaten up the last few weeks this week was a pleasant reversal. Picked up 10 shares of MO earlier in the week, the whole JUUL thing had them beaten down. I still like the company and finally dipped my toe in. A few days ago I set some buy orders I didn’t think would fill, my AMZN and AAPL orders didn’t fill but the RIO order did. It dived a couple bucks yesterday and my order for 10@ $60 filled, then grabbed 4 more at $58.80 today. If it heads down on Tuesday I’m buying more.

My transition to an income portfolio is going fairly well. I’m up to $373/month in dividends/distributions. In 10 years that should be a much more significant number.

**4matic** · 07-01-2022, 09:17 PM

That’s good direction Bob. Growth speculation will return at some point.

**4matic** · 07-05-2022, 09:21 AM

Interesting that ARKK is up a lot today.

**4matic** · 07-05-2022, 11:14 AM

The Energy sector $XLE is now down since February 1st. Was up 35% over this period as of June 8th.

Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?

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