Is the stock market going to tank?

[splat]

I just read today that 7 million+ Americans are more than 3 months delinquent on their car payments. A record.

Things are not copacetic.

They all bought bitcoin at 15K.

[Bunion 2020]

^^^ Lutz.

That and the current debt loads for the average American seem like warning lights flashing.

Maybe not short term but I still find it hard to believe that all is rosy.

[iceman]

all righty then

[shroom]

i, concur

[Brock Landers]

When is it happening

[mud]

I just read today that 7 million+ Americans are more than 3 months delinquent on their car payments. A record.

Things are not copacetic.

The life of a repo man is always intense.

[reckless toboggan]

[El Chupacabra]

Plate of shrimp

[Timberridge]

Hi XXXXXXX,

Just quickly following up on my last email.

Again, here is a quick intro:

JetTrack is designed to track corporate jets as they fly around the world as an indication of future strategic deals.

Our wheelhouse is with the more sophisticated and forward thinking hedge funds (typically over $1bn).

We are working with about 20 top hedge fund firms and counting. Case studies are below and our track record are sound:
• JetTrack Uncovers Amazon-Whole Foods Meetings Before $13.7B Deal
• Sudden Stryker Flights Indicate Possible Boston Scientific Acquisition
• Conagra Sends Two Jets to New Jersey, Signaling Pinnacle Acquisition
• JetTrack Monitors Key Executives Leading Up to the $39B Acquisition of Sky
• Constellation Continually Visits Ottawa Before $3.8B Canopy Investment
Let me know if this rings any bells.

Thanks,
John

[skaredshtles]

Next fucking executive/director-type hack that uses the word "wheelhouse" is getting a fucking kick in the nuts. When did that stupid word gain acceptance in corporate-speak?

[Benny Profane]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...ett-2019-03-01

[Brock Landers]

High yield was about to go up in smoke before Powell realized what was going on & pivoted.

Disagree. Earnings continue to grow double digits. Inflation is stable (goods still negative services positive). front end rates 50bps beyond inflation prints (real rates slightly up). It’s fine. Yield seeking from investors still out there, especially outside the US- only way it makes sense after hedging for USD is in higher yielding debt. And most of all- most maturities have pushed out until minimum 2020 or further.

Will it go down at some point very soon? Yes. Everything goes up and down if you think in terms of days or weeks. And at some point we will definitely go through a recession, and HY will get hit hard. Until then collect the coupon.

[dunfree]

Hi XXXXXXX,

Just quickly following up on my last email.

Again, here is a quick intro:

JetTrack is designed to track corporate jets as they fly around the world as an indication of future strategic deals.

Our wheelhouse is with the more sophisticated and forward thinking hedge funds (typically over $1bn).

We are working with about 20 top hedge fund firms and counting. Case studies are below and our track record are sound:
• JetTrack Uncovers Amazon-Whole Foods Meetings Before $13.7B Deal
• Sudden Stryker Flights Indicate Possible Boston Scientific Acquisition
• Conagra Sends Two Jets to New Jersey, Signaling Pinnacle Acquisition
• JetTrack Monitors Key Executives Leading Up to the $39B Acquisition of Sky
• Constellation Continually Visits Ottawa Before $3.8B Canopy Investment
Let me know if this rings any bells.

Thanks,
John

man, they are really good at marketing publicly available data.

[Brock Landers]

Why compare this quarter or year to 2008 when a number of different factors led to a liquidity crisis (and very few if any of those factors are flagging right now) rather than any of the other quarters or years when McDonald’s did easily make payroll?

That said, there is less liquidity now than in the past (generally) in both HY and IG and when something credit-wise or fundamental actually happens it could be exacerbated by liquidity constraints. Specifically in BBB rated.

Earnings are down compared to last year’s Q1 but those were goosed earnings due to Trump’s fiscal policy and tax benefit. This year’s Q1 has been expected to be lower. But relative to most other periods...I’d take current revenue and earning metrics.

Also Japanese have been dumping us debt lately. Currency hedging is too expensive. Same with Europe. Should the Fed and ECB both slow the easing cycle (ECB because Europe is a shitshow right now) the dollar may retreat making it easier for foreign buyers to keep rates suppressed. Will be interesting to see where they buy if this happens.

P.S. love Yardeni

[4matic]

If HY maturing can be rolled over at low rates it’s a non event. Global slowdown might be dragging US rates lower than anyone expects. Bund on the verge of going negative again and Chinese TY down to 3.22.


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[Brock Landers]

ECB easing. This should fuck around with things a bit today.

[SumJongGuy]

I'd be dumping Boeing stock if I had it. Looking like there are major problems with their new passenger jets.

[SumJongGuy]

I'd be dumping Boeing stock if I had it. Looking like there are major problems with their new passenger jets.

Ahem.. even worse..

[4matic]

Global rates collapsing. UK 10y will be below 1% soon. Germany goes negative. France at .34%
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds

[splat]

You buying into the Brazilian bonds, 4matic?

[4matic]

You buying into the Brazilian bonds, 4matic?

I own EMB

[4matic]

Ken Griffin of Citadel interview.

https://www.bloomberg.com/peer-to-peer


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[Brock Landers]

Ohmygodtheskyisfalling!!!!! Again!!!!

[4matic]

I didn’t really take the interview as gloomy. Did I miss something? Interesting guy.


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[4matic]

Will be interesting if LYFT can hold its issue price. Not a great first day. I wonder how it will affect Uber ipo if it fails to hold $72.


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