Is the stock market going to tank?

[pureantigravity]

off the top of my head- LYV, MSGS, EDR, VVI, EB, I think IHRT has a small event business
a plethora of ways to play it but I think most of the recovery has already been priced in on these

Thanks Bear! That's awesome. Gonna take a good look at them. These are the full names below if anyone wants that for quick reference.

edit: Live Nation and Viad look interesting. All of them are a hodgepodge of inconsistent earnings and profits.

[m2711c]

Dumped the AMC - keeping 1 share for free popcorn.

just in time, AMC trading has been suspended.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ing-suspended/

[CovertM]

Well the game is afoot...Tried to sell calls at open on half of BB position but missed fills. Doubled down on shares on the dip to $14, then sold calls against half (June $25) on the run to $17.30s.

Closed SOFI CSPs @ 65%to free up cash.

Interesting anecdote, rolling 6 CC positions yesterday for decent net credits dropped my historical profit margin on options by 3%. Credit or not, a loss is a loss.

ETA: Had meetings so set limits to close BB CCs for 40% on the day, didn't get filled. Back at it tomorrow.

[pureantigravity]

Imagine if they halted trading on all stocks unhinged from financial reality. LOL.

[4matic]

Imagine if they halted trading on all stocks unhinged from financial reality. LOL.

Market halts do happen with circuit breakers after 1987

[CovertM]

2.5% car loan for business
2.99% mortgage
4.5% business loan
Total DTI under 2x
Stable work funding 401k/iras.

I can pay the business loan off and get a LOC for more than the debt so I'd have access to capital if needed.

If I keep the debt, I'd probably 50% superfund 529 and 50% after tax index funds.



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What I shared in PM:

I would agree, let it run it's course and have your dollars work for you elsewhere. Could also redirect funds to pay it off in the future if things got tight (business cash flow, etc.), or take out an LOC like you say.

How old are the kiddos? I'm sure you know, but 529s are maximized when kids are young. Glide path starts to flee to conservative/preservation around 12-14 yrs old. If kids are older I recommend more traditional investment accounts and eat the tax benefit if it can outpace growth. The real growth happens from 0-10. Also, depends on state 529, but assuming you are using age based direct portfolio option of some sort.

[LeeLau]

AMC halted due to volatility 3x today but is still trading fyi.

Yoloed some BB June 20C for the hell of it using the AMC profits. May as well have some fun.

I may suspend selling RIOT CCs for the next couple of weeks. Short interest is 20% ( Ortex reports more like high 20s) and I'd like to not be trapped in case it quintuples

[CovertM]

AMC halted due to volatility 3x today but is still trading fyi.

Yoloed some BB June 20C for the hell of it using the AMC profits. May as well have some fun.

I may suspend selling RIOT CCs for the next couple of weeks. Short interest is 20% ( Ortex reports more like high 20s) and I'd like to not be trapped in case it quintuples

Woah, thanks for the heads up. What about MARA? Do you pay for this data?

The tantrum after PSTH DA rumor is hilarious to me. People were so hell bent on the 4 companies that they thought would be the merger that they lost their minds when it was Universal Music. I’ll continue to hold my shares and start selling calls on upticks, I was nervous to sell calls for the last couple months due to DA rumor potential at any point, especially if it was Starlink


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[LeeLau]

I ask for Ortex and Markit SI from a friend with a Bloomberg. I'll ask about Mara.

PSTH is interesting . Universal is a boring af stable business. It may or may not merit that valuation. But it certainly doesn't merit that volatility (60% IV). I may short vol.

[pureantigravity]

Added an oil stock to the mix. Oil companies are being encouraged to stop new exploration. There are even attempts to hold them liable in Europe. Will this create scarcity? If it does, then price goes up.

[MontuckyFried]

Added an oil stock to the mix. Oil companies are being encouraged to stop new exploration. There are even attempts to hold them liable in Europe. Will this create scarcity? If it does, then price goes up.

Good call. The hilarious thing about it is that the inevitable price spike is only going to have the effect of increased exploration. Oh, the Feds don't want to allow drilling on Federal lands? Lol, ok. Lots of private minerals to explore. And then IF some people got their way and all domestic exploration was curbed, what would happen? Other countries would be MORE than happy to pick up the slack. And with far less regulation to boot. You think China gives a damn about the environment? While my industry was sitting on its ass all last year, China was massively ramping up their offshore drilling programs globally. Waters off of African and Asian coasts being tapped into big time.

[rod9301]

Also, high oil price will encourage substitution and lower consumption.

I do believe though that oil will go to 100 or more in the next two years, because a lot of oil companies cut exploration drastically.

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[MontuckyFried]

Also, high oil price will encourage substitution and lower consumption.

Sure, but only for a brief moment in time. People have memories like goldfish. When gas prices spiked in the early 2000s, people were far less interested in large SUVS and hybrids all of a sudden became teh hotness. Then prices stabilized and people went right back to buying trucks and SUVs in record numbers. Those are always the same people who cry about rising gas prices too. Haha.

Watch gas hit $4/gallon this year. You'll see a momentary drop in truck/SUV sales, but people will return right back to their old habits once prices relax OR they just become accustomed to the "new normal" in higher prices. Happens every time. People are so predictable.

[pureantigravity]

It wouldn't be a portfolio if it didn't include stocks dependent on ports, now would it?

[BobMc]

Oil companies are still doing exploration, even though capex is down because of pandemic related demand they haven’t stopped looking for oil. Most companies abandoned the Africa reserves because of extraction costs. Smart companies are looking at profitability per barrel, XOM is vigorously diving into Guyana. They can extract offshore oil that profits at $35/per prices, that figure is expected to go even lower. They recently sold off interests in North Sea fields that just wasn’t profitable (enough) at expected prices.

Why work hard for less money?

BBBY cooled off a lot today, got back low enough that I’m making money even if assigned. CCL CEO had an interview on GMA this morning where she reiterated that they are still thinking the first bit of cruises will be vaccinated cruises, setting up a showdown with Desantis. She also mentioned that it will be unfortunate that families with small children will not be able to cruise. Unfortunately that may mean my Aug 7th Southern Carib is probably off. But, it probably means I’ll be able to pocket some cash on my call once that news gets around.

[pureantigravity]

Watched Wolf of Wall Street tonight. Wow. Good film. Sobering perspective in the world of stock promoting.

[pureantigravity]

Three pots on the stove today:

SAP AG I'm now into this for long term hodl. The way I see it, they are (1) Well managed company (2) pay dividends (3) good tech and respected as a top tier tech software company. Also developing cloud offerings and more AI/Machine-learning, and with that maybe (low maybe) expand small-medium size biz offerings to compete with the likes of online-shopping-cart software's (shopify,lightspeed, etc.).

NTR Nutrien Ltd. Also a long term hodl. (1) Canadian resource based, (2) worlds biggest potash producer (incl. retail), (3) dividends, (4) $34B cap, and (5) TO MAKE ALL THAT OAT MILK THEY GONNA NEED LOTS OF FERTILIZER!!

OATLY. Doing some homework into oat beverages and oat yogurt etc.. OATLY just went public last week. Starbucks is apparently offering it as a milk substitute in their cappuccino and Oprah is an investor (whatever that means). Will she pump the f#$K out of it with promotions and/or dump her shares on the public and/or hodl? Does it even taste good? Is it even profitable?

So I went to Whole Foods. Couldn't find OATLY. But I found, www.yoso.ca plain unsweetened yogurt 'yoats' yogurt. It is a private Canadian company. How it tastes with nothing added: like a creamier version of tofu mixed with moldy socks and a hint of vanilla. Seriously not a competitor to yogurt in the taste department. OK ... let's add some stuff to it. Sliced mangoes, honey and a dab of maple syrup. Now how does it taste? Refreshing actually. As a flavored yoat-gurt(?) it could actually be eaten as a lunch side or with breakfast. Undecided. Need to go taste the milk and capoatchino.

Money: this little yoat-gurt cost $6.50. That's robbery. So is it *that expensive* to make? Or is it just low-volume high-markup? Who is the market? Perhaps people that love cows too much to eat them or milk them? Perhaps people that really hate CO2 emissions and agree with all the eco-concerns about the dairy industry. I don't see how this oat stuff couldn't be mass produced to reduce price. Still, even OATLY seems to not be making much money. Pretty sure they will with increasing sales and economies of scale.

I'm tempted to FOMO in to it right now in case it does a Beyond Meat style intro. But I doubt it will. For (1) Beyond Meat came out at peak GRETTA THUNBERG hype cycle and (2) Beyond Meat was even available in some burger chains as an option when it was introduced.

Need more info. I was thinking that if it checks the boxes I might go big 1/2 now and 1/2 later to DCA in case the price drops in the next 1 to 2 years. This is a long-term trend and there will be many competitors. Call me a skeptic. I'm thinking to let it simmer on the markets for a year and then come back to it and see how it is all going.

Todo: Have to taste the milk and check out the competitors. With the Oprah and Starbucks mentions this will probably be a pump-n-dump short term and a solid long term milk substitute company. Just needs much more price discovery.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
This has been a "how not to invest" episode with PG.
Stay tuned as PG tries the oat 'milk' and the real OATLY.
Will this stock perform like it tastes? Only OPRAH knows.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------



edit: was two pots on the stove but late decision for NUTRIEN to balance out Cdn resource stocks. Hoping for lots of worldwide soil degradation so they need our potash!

[NWFlow]

I thought oatly was swedish. It's my second favorite of the three options for oat milk at our local shop. Maybe not a "buy" for me.

[JimmyCarter]

Still trying to figure out why CLOV is rocketing, outside of potential meme-y-ness

[CovertM]

Still trying to figure out why CLOV is rocketing, outside of potential meme-y-ness

Haven't you heard? Everything is a short squeeeeeeeze now. /s

WSB and Stocktwits (at least for a lot of tickers) have turned into absolute short bus window licking content.

I don't know either, I do recall an investigation into some matter that sent it tanking from $17s down to $7s. Could potentially be heavily shorted, I haven't seen the data.

Resold BB calls today on half of the shares. We'll see what happens the rest of the week. Today seemed to be an absolute memesphere rally and took a lot of the other fringe speculative stuff up with it.

[BobMc]

36% of float according to my TDAmeritrade account, BBBY was up to 31%. Figures, BBBY trades sideways from February to June and moons the morning I put up an (what I thought was)overpriced limit call. I still have a month for it to calm down.

Carnival again today informed people that unvaxxed won’t be sailing in July. People with kids under 12 will be cancelled. It bumped today on the announcement they’ll be sailing again, I think it’ll take a bit of time till that other part of it sinks in.

[4matic]

Watched Wolf of Wall Street tonight. Wow. Good film. Sobering perspective in the world of stock promoting.

Boiler Room is good too. Maybe better

[shera]

I am sitting on my hands, but fidgeting like crazy. My GME is waaaaaay up and dominating my IRA at this point. My next sell order is at $383, but it is so hard not to take profits right now, take the money and run, gah! Discipline!

edit - oops, just saw that I did get a sell filled at $338, so that's nice.

[CovertM]

Yo Bob...CMPS seems to be on a tear! You still holding? I was waiting for the last couple weeks to sell calls and of course I sold yesterday on a decent up day. Blown through today!

[paulster2626]

I am sitting on my hands, but fidgeting like crazy. My GME is waaaaaay up and dominating my IRA at this point. My next sell order is at $383, but it is so hard not to take profits right now, take the money and run, gah! Discipline!

edit - oops, just saw that I did get a sell filled at $338, so that's nice.

"Taking profits" is such a <questionable character> move. Diamond hands, baby!