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  1. #15901
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
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    Behind the Zion Curtain
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    4,360
    Quote Originally Posted by NakedShorts View Post
    The question we will need to ask is "Will the market make it's actual low sooner or later?"

    It may take a bit for this to end but do we get a spike low and some time to enjoy some recovery or do we just get shaken and stirred with the low coming at the end of all of this.

    Cono's 25 -26 k is the next stop on the track to pain town for the DOW.

    Welcome to the world of Inflation in the stuff we do/use and Deflation in the stuff we own. $ is a bit confused.

    Here is the list (not extensive & subject to change)

    EMs borrowed in USD thinking it would go to $0 and be very cheap and easy to pay back. Now globalization is dead and the Dollar is KING and those loans are getting more expensiver.

    War #3 is happening. Some just have not warmed up to the idea.

    FED just blew out the Goveys Budget...if that ever mattered..
    But they will also make it harder for those on the margins...So we will have less...a d it will cost more.

    Since we have no replacement for fossil fuels and the fools believe otherwise we can look forward to $5 tomato's (each).

    Since we now have shortages developing in FOOD things will get worse before they get better.

    Since the WAR will involve China... We are FUCKededed.

    Travel Bug is a symptom of the past and not a forward looking statement. Those fools will regret the spend, unless they are Dentists, they always holiday in the Summer when the kiddos are off. Not to mention you regal Retired Baby Boomers.

    Since the Government is the one on life support (around the world) we can look forward to them stearing us off the cliff with them.

    So after we make a nice low now or in 2023 we can look forward to watching from afar as we will get our turn, but probably we will be last and good Assets will eventually pay off nicely.

    Pretty sure this thread is rife with folks pulling their money out of the market. Pretty sure I just read a block text of bullshit. A year from now I’m going to regret not putting more funds into certain aspects of the market.

    Keep putting money into the market and you will thank yourself later on.

  2. #15902
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
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    Mountains, Trees, and a Big Blue Lake
    Posts
    605
    Quote Originally Posted by BobMc View Post
    Pretty sure this thread is rife with folks pulling their money out of the market. Pretty sure I just read a block text of bullshit. A year from now I’m going to regret not putting more funds into certain aspects of the market.

    Keep putting money into the market and you will thank yourself later on.
    Parts of what you say are correct and spot on to why we may just need a hard long low. Continue to invest ALWAYS it's all you got.

    Beware of Ms though, this next one will feel brutal. Multi-year low right on the Retirement of many Overoptimistic Boomers.

    At least this isn't in the 20% interest stable coin sub.

  3. #15903
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    18,636
    Quote Originally Posted by NakedShorts View Post
    Multi-year low right on the Retirement of many Overoptimistic Boomers.

    .
    Taking back a years worth of gains means no new corvette this year for the selfish boomers but not much else. Even if they sell now they are multiples ahead with gains.

  4. #15904
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    STL
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    11,298
    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    would you prefer the places that didn’t give away money, did stricter lockdowns, and are seeing worse inflation?
    I’m mostly referring to PPP, how it was administered and that it was almost entirely forgiven. A lot of people whose incomes were unchanged received free cash. Me included.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  5. #15905
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by NakedShorts View Post
    Parts of what you say are correct and spot on to why we may just need a hard long low. Continue to invest ALWAYS it's all you got.

    Beware of Ms though, this next one will feel brutal. Multi-year low right on the Retirement of many Overoptimistic Boomers.

    At least this isn't in the 20% interest stable coin sub.
    Alot of boomers stayed overly invested in equities. 20 yrs of low interest rates forced them to, but it still worked out.

    There is a lot of cash on the sidelines but this time around, with higher rates, it’s not all going into equities.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  6. #15906
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    Dec 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Taking back a years worth of gains means no new corvette this year for the selfish boomers but not much else. Even if they sell now they are multiples ahead with gains.
    They will bleed hard if we don’t see new highs like we did in the 2000’s. Especially those who’ve only just retired. They will be back to work or broke if this one is long lasting.




    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  7. #15907
    Join Date
    Jan 2022
    Posts
    567
    So you guys are saying there is going to be a lot of GOTOS gear for sale cheap soon?

  8. #15908
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    9,300ft
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    20,047
    An argument that the market has found a level near fair valuation:

    https://www.fidelity.com/learning-ce...t-turns-corner

    After falling nearly 20% on an intraday basis, stocks are now fairly valued, in my opinion.
    At the same time, anticipated inflation rates have declined in recent weeks, which should help reduce the uncertainty that has been roiling markets.
    By several measures, stocks are also beginning to look notably oversold.
    Taken together, these developments could help stocks finally begin to find their footing.
    To buy back in now or not...
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  9. #15909
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    18,505
    ^^^ All the experts are wrong.

    Not really, but to try a predict what will happen over the next 6 month to 2 years is damn near impossible except using broad generalizations. FWIW I think Timmer sums things up well.

    And to have experts (CE & NS) on a ski forum call a bottom or predict the next recession is laughable.

    We were long overdue a correction. See where it goes from here.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  10. #15910
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    7,607
    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    ^^^ All the experts are wrong.

    Not really, but to try a predict what will happen over the next 6 month to 2 years is damn near impossible except using broad generalizations. FWIW I think Timmer sums things up well.

    And to have experts (CE & NS) on a ski forum call a bottom or predict the next recession is laughable.

    We were long overdue a correction. See where it goes from here.
    Grantham was on CNBC calling for basically a doubling of the decline from where we are now. He correctly called the market downturns in 2008 and 2000 (and incorrectly called the downturns in every other year)

  11. #15911
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    your vacation
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    3,466
    Quote Originally Posted by oldnew_guy View Post
    So you guys are saying there is going to be a lot of GOTOS gear for sale cheap soon?
    doubtful just invested $1,000 in gear this morning my dividen check was a tad light this year but you know

    we will be back at all time highs on the stock market by late tuesday afternoon
    the future looks very bright as long as your in the top 20% of earners in the america today and live in a prosperous location in this country
    the other 80% don't seem to have that cash flow to piss away on cheap throw away plastic crap that litters the side of roads so yeah wall mart and target is down it won't last long because we have this desperate need to buy junk to make ourselves feel good

    2nd quarter gdp will be - .06% then they will start freely using the word recession (all these smart economists don't know shit they talk out of their asshole and use all kinds of facts figures and past history to try to be the one to predict what will happen tomorrow) as if they know what its like to be an average working class never going to get ahead blame immigrants for everything fat and lazy poor schlub in american today

    most of my customers would be happy with shorter lead times on materials and lower costs on lumber

  12. #15912
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
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    in a freezer in Italy
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    5,101
    My bet is the market goes up and down some.

  13. #15913
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    Nov 2012
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    GNARvada
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    ^^^ All the experts are wrong.
    .
    It's all fugazi!

  14. #15914
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    784
    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    My bet is the market goes up and down some.
    TRUTH! Also, my boat dealer had his first cancelation due to the stock market. He figures the boat will sell in a week or two.

    Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

  15. #15915
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
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    At the beach
    Posts
    16,959
    Burn baby burn. S&P in the mid 2000 range, maybe it could tempt me. Maybe.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  16. #15916
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    Jun 2020
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    1,392

  17. #15917
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    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,636
    .DXY close to a one month low. Down close to 2% from its recent high along with rates.

  18. #15918
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    Mar 2006
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    18,636

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    The port blockade in Ukraine preventing food exports could become a UN humanitarian issue. If that happens and western militaries enforce export freedom wheat prices, and most soft commodity prices will fall.

    G7 is meeting this week.

  19. #15919
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,636

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    SPY is only down 2.1% on the week. Could easily close flat.

    The R2K is only down .5% on the week. Edit: unch on the week now.

  20. #15920
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Mountains, Trees, and a Big Blue Lake
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    605
    Hope is a drug and very powerful one, Hopium can blind you from the truth if you have to much in you.

    India - Banning wheat exports. (Paywalled)

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-b...of2&yptr=yahoo

    Recession / Stagflation / Economy Not Working As Planned - Whatever you want to call it is a certainty and very easily forecasted.

    Come back to this post circa May 2023 where I say the "market bottoms in the first Quarter 2023 (April)." Do not expect them to bottom the same day but within days or a few weeks.

    Dow 29600 and then 25,000 - 26,000
    NASDAQ 10800 then 7800 then 7200
    S&P 500 3200 then 2800 then 2500
    Sh*tCoin 28600 then 17600 then 10400 then 9800 (3rd Quarter Low this Year)
    Oil $250+/ barrel by end of 2023

    Trade Accordingly. If we loose one level we get support at the next. It is helpful to know where those painful stops actually are though. Markets never move in straight lines.

    And yields will need to be higher than inflation before Bonds will work as hoped for any substantial holding period. If inflation remains persistent, as I am laying out, bonds return of capital feature will become decimated by said inflation.

    Rising interest rates help unload ships faster? Do farmers grow more wheat with higher rates? Oil companies find more oil with higher rates? The FED does not have the tool kit to fight these problems and Government Polytricksters are not helping because they are dumb.

    We have systematic shortages developing in FOOD. That leads to Civil Unrest 100% of the time. Sri Lanka?

    Buy some non perishable food you will thank me later.
    I'm cool with this, as long as you Kirkwood Bro Brah's stay away from Heavenly when 88 closes- TahoeBc

  21. #15921
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,636

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    “Don’t you know there are people starving in Africa”

    America has 10 trillion in calorie reserves they can burn off.

  22. #15922
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    Mar 2006
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    18,636
    “There If inflation remains persistent, as I am laying out, bonds return of capital feature will become decimated by said inflation.”

    Pretty sure we have a printing press so you will get capital returned in some form…in treasury.

  23. #15923
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    3,034
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    SPY is only down 2.1% on the week. Could easily close flat.

    The R2K is only down .5% on the week. Edit: unch on the week now.
    That’s what’s so scary. We haven’t seen anywhere near as bad as what’s to come. There are some fundamental forces being set in motion.

    I’m sure I don’t need to tell you this, but for the benefit of others, when the covid crash occurred, the fed pumped $4.5T into the economy by buying up corporate bonds and mortgage backed securities. This, and lowering interest rates provided liquidity that helped the stock market recover and take off from there.

    The economy got hot, we’ll sort of, and along came inflation. So now the fed wants to take those purchases off their balance sheet and also increase interest rates. There is no way that those two acts will not have a negative impact on the market. If the opposite of those two acts propped the market up, the inverse must surely have the opposite effect.

    The thing is, the interest rate increases have barely started. I can’t see those not continuing to for many months to come, until inflation backs down substantially.

    And QT hasn’t even started. They quit buying the corporate bonds and mortgages. The next step is to let them “roll-off” the balance sheet as they mature. This part starts next month, capped by a certain amount. The cap increases in later months, and eventually the fed will actually start selling its inventory.

    So this downward pressure on the market is going to increase gradually over several months, and it is not going away in a few days.

  24. #15924
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    Jan 2008
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  25. #15925
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
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    Juneau
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    Quote Originally Posted by NakedShorts View Post
    If inflation remains persistent, as I am laying out, bonds return of capital feature will become decimated by said inflation.
    I guess you're not buying Cathie Woods' conclusion that Target's retail losses show that inflation is declining.

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