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  1. #15876
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,636
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    Someone has had to have their ass handed to them. There is a whole generation of traders that have never seen 1 complete mkt cycle.

    My bet is interest rate swaps


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    The curve had a huge one day move about a month ago.

  2. #15877
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    3,973
    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    Had lunch in vail today the whole time I was staring at this older woman who wasn't bad looking definitely would bang after a 2 drink happy hour the work she has had done on her face was impeccable high quality stuff it just didn't match the wrinkled flab under her arms and on her legs

    That's the economy in a nut shell right now


    Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk
    LMAO

  3. #15878
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    17,383
    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    Had lunch in vail today the whole time I was staring at this older woman who wasn't bad looking definitely would bang after a 2 drink happy hour the work she has had done on her face was impeccable high quality stuff it just didn't match the wrinkled flab under her arms and on her legs

    That's the economy in a nut shell right now


    Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk
    She's waiting for the next round of PPP.
    Is it radix panax notoginseng? - splat

  4. #15879
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    7,607
    Quote Originally Posted by 365wp View Post
    And start with $1mil in 1945, dayum
    What else are you gonna do with Nazi gold?

  5. #15880
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    6,762
    $1 million in 1945 was already close to generational wealth, there were like 15k millionaires

  6. #15881
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    6,519
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Consumer spending down across the board. Travel for sure could hold up well at least for the summer.
    Airfare and hotel rates are crazy high these days. It's like bidding out a new kitchen. Contractors throw out a high dollar figure and someone is going to say, "what the heck! do it!"
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  7. #15882
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    3,033
    Today needs a soundtrack.

  8. #15883
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Juneau
    Posts
    1,016
    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    TSA numbers still going up (Sunday the highest since thanksgiving) people shifting consumption from goods to services. Walmart/target/Costco ain’t all the same
    Yet, still ~10% below the 2019 numbers.

  9. #15884
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,636
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    Airfare and hotel rates are crazy high these days. It's like bidding out a new kitchen. Contractors throw out a high dollar figure and someone is going to say, "what the heck! do it!"
    I typically search Marriott because I have the card. Their prices seem way out of line with the market. I don’t travel that much and I still had 5 free days to use this year. I suspect they might be trying to purge points. I’ve found some decent prices on Priceline for shoulder season hotels at others lately.

  10. #15885
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    Aug 2016
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    6,762
    Quote Originally Posted by dschane View Post
    Yet, still ~10% below the 2019 numbers.
    capacity is also down from 2019, and business travel is still down from 2019. But Last month UAL said avg fare was up 23% from 2019, and they’ve got 25% more capacity to Europe this summer vs 2019

  11. #15886
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,636
    SMF (sac)to PDX rt $500 four weeks out wtf? Who does that?

  12. #15887
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
    Posts
    3,207
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    SMF (sac)to PDX rt $500 four weeks out wtf? Who does that?
    I just paid $1200 to fly RT IDA to PHL to go my cousin's wedding. Wasn't any better going out of SLC for the dates I needed. It cost me less to fly JAC to LHR last summer.

    I normally would have held off for such a stupid price, but it's the first chance to get that part of my family together since my grandma died from Covid 18 months ago and I doubt the remaining aunts/uncles on that side will ever be in the same place together again.

  13. #15888
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Last Best City in the Last Best Place
    Posts
    5,384
    Pilot shortage is hurting the airlines and smaller airports. The military isn't turning out pilots at nearly the rate they used to, and many commercial pilots retired when the pandemic hit. Our local airport (Helena) used to have pretty good prices, now it's insane. I had to book all our summer travels to visit family out of Bozeman. It was 1/3 to 1/2 the price. I actually wrote to the director of our airport to complain and he said it was the pilot shortage causing the airlines to drop flights to smaller regional airports. They need to incentivize those retired pilots to come back into service for a few years.

    But other than those family visits, we're not traveling anywhere or spending any money on anything for the foreseeable future. Time to hunker in and get ready to weather the storm.

  14. #15889
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Splat's Garage
    Posts
    3,877
    Stock market tanked today. I'm sick of all these dramatic up and downs. When will it end??

    Anyone else fearful that the whole thing is going to just implode? I feel like we're one more major event away from a near complete sell-off to zero. Then, of course, after the sell-off, the hedge funds will buy back everything they have sold the last 4 weeks.

  15. #15890
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    1,162
    Quote Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud View Post
    Stock market tanked today. I'm sick of all these dramatic up and downs. When will it end??

    Anyone else fearful that the whole thing is going to just implode? I feel like we're one more major event away from a near complete sell-off to zero. Then, of course, after the sell-off, the hedge funds will buy back everything they have sold the last 4 weeks.
    Zero would be an attractive price to buy... Benny could probably make his billionaire dreams come true.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  16. #15891
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Splat's Garage
    Posts
    3,877
    I mean Draft Kings is almost down to zero. I think Benny should go all in on it.

  17. #15892
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Behind the Zion Curtain
    Posts
    4,360
    I like the ups and downs, I’ve been selling a call on XOM most mornings lately. It moves around enough that I’ve been able to buy it back within hours for at least $10 profit after fees. I call it my free lunch program.

    I know I’ll have to pay some minimal taxes on the proceeds, is there some other drawback I’m not seeing? I’m up 111% on my 222 shares so being assigned on a run up wouldn’t bother me. I’ve been wanting to move more funds into EPD anyways, XOM is yielding under 4% whereas EPD is just under 7%.

  18. #15893
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,636
    The only stocks that haven’t been hit are the energy stocks…and maybe telecom.

    Citi guy calling broad commodity pullback.

    https://cnb.cx/3yH4LGN

  19. #15894
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Behind the Zion Curtain
    Posts
    4,360
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    The only stocks that haven’t been hit are the energy stocks…

    https://cnb.cx/3yH4LGN
    Glad I went with my gut the last year and a half. Hoping my buys of this year pay off next year…

    Click image for larger version. 

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  20. #15895
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,636
    If oil energy supply were as under supplied as many think opec will eventually increase production. They can’t afford permanent demand destruction too early.

  21. #15896
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Behind the Zion Curtain
    Posts
    4,360
    XOM and MRO are much better equipped to print money at lower p/bbl profits than pre-pandemic. XOM claims to be able to turn a profit at $35/bbl prices from Guyana.

  22. #15897
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,298
    Quote Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud View Post
    Stock market tanked today. I'm sick of all these dramatic up and downs. When will it end??

    Anyone else fearful that the whole thing is going to just implode? I feel like we're one more major event away from a near complete sell-off to zero. Then, of course, after the sell-off, the hedge funds will buy back everything they have sold the last 4 weeks.
    It’s not that bad, yet. All we’ve done is remove the Covid bubble. We gave away trillions, people bought cars and houses. It was a joke. I blame them all, they all contributed to it in a bid to keep power or remove it. Anyway, not the place to say that, pummel me in Poly ass.

    I say another 20%, just keep buying, but you better have 10 yrs to hold.

    My ex has a HUGE book of clients. She rode it up the last 10 yrs, basically had it handed to her. Like 500mm plus, min. Anyway, she’s got so many HNW clients that are going to give her an ulcer before this is over. She better not ask me for more!


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  23. #15898
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    6,762
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    It’s not that bad, yet. All we’ve done is remove the Covid bubble. We gave away trillions, people bought cars and houses. It was a joke. I blame them all, they all contributed to it in a bid to keep power or remove it. Anyway, not the place to say that, pummel me in Poly ass.

    I say another 20%, just keep buying, but you better have 10 yrs to hold.

    My ex has a HUGE book of clients. She rode it up the last 10 yrs, basically had it handed to her. Like 500mm plus, min. Anyway, she’s got so many HNW clients that are going to give her an ulcer before this is over. She better not ask me for more!


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    would you prefer the places that didn’t give away money, did stricter lockdowns, and are seeing worse inflation?

  24. #15899
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,636

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    The Dow Industrial Average is down 7% yoy. S&P down 5% yoy. No big deal..

    The R2k is still 3% off the 52 wk low.

  25. #15900
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Mountains, Trees, and a Big Blue Lake
    Posts
    605
    The question we will need to ask is "Will the market make it's actual low sooner or later?"

    It may take a bit for this to end but do we get a spike low and some time to enjoy some recovery or do we just get shaken and stirred with the low coming at the end of all of this.

    Cono's 25 -26 k is the next stop on the track to pain town for the DOW.

    Welcome to the world of Inflation in the stuff we do/use and Deflation in the stuff we own. $ is a bit confused.

    Here is the list (not extensive & subject to change)

    EMs borrowed in USD thinking it would go to $0 and be very cheap and easy to pay back. Now globalization is dead and the Dollar is KING and those loans are getting more expensiver.

    War #3 is happening. Some just have not warmed up to the idea.

    FED just blew out the Goveys Budget...if that ever mattered..
    But they will also make it harder for those on the margins...So we will have less...a d it will cost more.

    Since we have no replacement for fossil fuels and the fools believe otherwise we can look forward to $5 tomato's (each).

    Since we now have shortages developing in FOOD things will get worse before they get better.

    Since the WAR will involve China... We are FUCKededed.

    Travel Bug is a symptom of the past and not a forward looking statement. Those fools will regret the spend, unless they are Dentists, they always holiday in the Summer when the kiddos are off. Not to mention you regal Retired Baby Boomers.

    Since the Government is the one on life support (around the world) we can look forward to them stearing us off the cliff with them.

    So after we make a nice low now or in 2023 we can look forward to watching from afar as we will get our turn, but probably we will be last and good Assets will eventually pay off nicely.

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