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  1. #15851
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by RoooR View Post
    Your friend owns .6% of UPS?
    And thatís after his aunt got half.

    No joke. 5 plus million shares. His grandpa sunk 1 mm into in 1945 when ups bought a bunch of surplus DC-3ís.

    The real message is that you hold good shit. Itís taken me decades to understand how generational wealth like that is created. It didnít go public until 2000.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  2. #15852
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    Mar 2006
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    18,653
    Quote Originally Posted by oldnew_guy View Post
    That would be nice.
    Mine was never ďthatĒ busy so you can really see a drop off.

  3. #15853
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    Jan 2022
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    573
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Mine was never ďthatĒ busy so you can really see a drop off.
    I think mine is worse because it is cheaper by 30-40 cents per gallon.

  4. #15854
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Thatís right. Lines are how you draw them. Its not a science. Just a tool

  5. #15855
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    Aug 2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I been saying..my local Costco is way down on traffic and it’s basically drive up to the gas pumps.
    TSA numbers still going up (Sunday the highest since thanksgiving) people shifting consumption from goods to services. Walmart/target/Costco ain’t all the same

  6. #15856
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    18,653

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    TSA numbers still going up (Sunday the highest since thanksgiving) people shifting consumption from goods to services. Walmart/target/Costco ainít all the same
    Most of those travel plans were made months ago. Iím skeptical that keeps up unless airfares and hotel room prices come in.

    COST down 13% today.

  7. #15857
    Join Date
    Apr 2021
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    1,373
    I saw a 20-30 cart wait trying to get out of Costco last week and a parking lot fuller than I've ever seen it. So COST should go up 10% next week based on this evidence, right?

  8. #15858
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    Itís really happening.

    Weíre going into the absolute shitter.

    Dow 25k.

    Even my gold sucks.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  9. #15859
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    Whenever this happens I ask myself if there is something around the corner we donít know about yet?

    Could be a recession, or could be the war to end all wars.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  10. #15860
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    Mar 2006
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    18,653
    Quote Originally Posted by muted reborn View Post
    I saw a 20-30 cart wait trying to get out of Costco last week and a parking lot fuller than I've ever seen it. So COST should go up 10% next week based on this evidence, right?
    Anecdotal is anecdotal. Nothing more. Right?

  11. #15861
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    Whenever this happens I ask myself if there is something around the corner we donít know about yet?

    Could be a recession, or could be the war to end all wars.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Treasury market blow up is top of my list

  12. #15862
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
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    Movin' On
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    3,210
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Previous highs prior to pandemic when rates were lower. If rates are higher why not lower than that?
    Well, in theory the economy has grown over the past two years, no?

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

    Not to say we won't have further contractions like we did in Q1.

    This whole thing seems like kind of a crazy situation because there is no shelter in stock or bond indexes.

    Maybe someone should tell the real estate market that the rest of the economy is crashing. I can imagine people buying at all time highs, with rates double what they were six months ago who believe that they are making a good decision.

  13. #15863
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Well, in theory the economy has grown over the past two years, no?

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

    Not to say we won't have further contractions like we did in Q1.

    This whole thing seems like kind of a crazy situation because there is no shelter in stock or bond indexes.

    Maybe someone should tell the real estate market that the rest of the economy is crashing. I can imagine people buying at all time highs, with rates double what they were six months ago who believe that they are making a good decision.
    Since stock market is forward looking the growth for the last two years was priced in March 2020. So to go back to that price is nothing. Especially with rates 3x higher.

  14. #15864
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    Aug 2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Anecdotal is anecdotal. Nothing more. Right?
    yeah, which is why I pointed out the target CEOís narrative (average customer income $75k or something, they didnít buy as much kitchen/tv last quarter). Walmart, average income $53k, blamed food inflation reducing sales of other stuff. COST (avg $93k)more like the former than the latter.

  15. #15865
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    yeah, which is why I pointed out the target CEOís narrative (average customer income $75k or something, they didnít buy as much kitchen/tv last quarter). Walmart, average income $53k, blamed food inflation reducing sales of other stuff. COST (avg $93k)more like the former than the latter.
    Consumer spending down across the board. Travel for sure could hold up well at least for the summer.

  16. #15866
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    Oct 2003
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    1,169
    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    A bottom of 8K is a logical guess based upon the existing monthly support and resistance noted by the blue horizontal line.

    I suspect the actions of the fed will probably play a larger role than technical analysis though.

    Attachment 416742
    Tech analysis is never a leading indicator.. But the Fed rate guidance certainly is... And every year automated trades are a larger % of total trade volume.. Makes for more volatility and also can make a direction of a trend much stronger than in the past... I won't be surprised by a test of 6,000-7,000 for the Nasdaq. Inflation is exacerbated by the war and the strong possibility of escalation because of Putin.... If another surge/mutation from Covid happens that would help destroy demand and lower prices of energy.. But food inflation may get worse because of current climate/drought/flooding problems..I guess I am a pessimist.. Or maybe a realist.. But I think 6-8% Fed funds rate is very possible by the end of 2023
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  17. #15867
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
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    1,405
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Consumer spending down across the board. Travel for sure could hold up well at least for the summer.
    Wut?

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	E3C0B96F-BA3D-4A1E-AF72-D4FBEACEE357.jpeg 
Views:	59 
Size:	126.6 KB 
ID:	416748

    https://jabberwocking.com/retail-spe...up-7-in-april/

  18. #15868
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    Mar 2006
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    Backward looking and it looks like it peaked in 2021. Plus, even if spending goes up or stays flat that doesnít mean companies make more with margin contractions.

  19. #15869
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    Mar 2006
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    Lumber and gasoline both down 6% today.

  20. #15870
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    Mar 2006
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    18,653
    CSCO down almost 20% after earnings. Itís sucked for decades.

  21. #15871
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    Mar 2006
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    5/10 curve just inverted.

  22. #15872
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    Mar 2006
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    $80B to Ukraine.....and now another $40B handout to restaurants....inflation isn't going anywhere:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/senat...184900504.html

  23. #15873
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Treasury market blow up is top of my list
    Someone has had to have their ass handed to them. There is a whole generation of traders that have never seen 1 complete mkt cycle.

    My bet is interest rate swaps


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  24. #15874
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    Jan 2010
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    Had lunch in vail today the whole time I was staring at this older woman who wasn't bad looking definitely would bang after a 2 drink happy hour the work she has had done on her face was impeccable high quality stuff it just didn't match the wrinkled flab under her arms and on her legs

    That's the economy in a nut shell right now


    Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk

  25. #15875
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    Dec 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    His grandpa sunk 1 mm into in 1945 when ups bought a bunch of surplus DC-3’s...It’s taken me decades to understand how generational wealth like that is created.
    And start with $1mil in 1945, dayum

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