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  1. #7951
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    Paper St. Soap Co.
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    2,265
    Gold & oil also up...this really is looking like the everything bubble.

  2. #7952
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    399
    Where would you put 50% of your portfolio now if you wanted to keep it safe(ish) for retirement. Or, at least safe for the next 2yrs (after election cycle). I'd like to lock up some of these gains. This is stuck in my 401k options

    Bonds? - US or Global are my options
    Treasury Money Market?
    "Stable Value"?

  3. #7953
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,666
    2y notes still offer decent yield


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  4. #7954
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    Dec 2008
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    US in better shape than EU or Asia imo. Others here much better than I at bond selection.

  5. #7955
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    5,127
    Quote Originally Posted by Iowagriz View Post
    Where would you put 50% of your portfolio now if you wanted to keep it safe(ish) for retirement. Or, at least safe for the next 2yrs (after election cycle). I'd like to lock up some of these gains. This is stuck in my 401k options

    Bonds? - US or Global are my options
    Treasury Money Market?
    "Stable Value"?
    Have you been rebalancing every year? That is probably the right compromise for locking in gains vs trying to time the market which almost always fails and leaves more money on the table.

    Assuming you are 2 years to retirement, you are already probably pretty close to 60/40 stocks/bonds but you still have a 20+ year timeframe of investing to manage. I especially wouldn't try and get cute that close to retirement either.

    Otherwise US treasuries would get my vote as well. I would prefer muni bonds but you are working in a 401k so no real benefit there.
    Live Free or Die

  6. #7956
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    South of 49
    Posts
    777
    Quote Originally Posted by Iowagriz View Post
    Where would you put 50% of your portfolio now if you wanted to keep it safe(ish) for retirement. Or, at least safe for the next 2yrs (after election cycle). I'd like to lock up some of these gains. This is stuck in my 401k options

    Bonds? - US or Global are my options
    Treasury Money Market?
    "Stable Value"?
    I zig when others zag.
    So, looking at the market mean,
    I see that we currently are in a bubble.
    Then it will return to mean.
    IT ALWAYS DOES.
    It seems that more bonds, treasuries etc would preserve wealth and put people in a good position come the innevitable.
    So, maybe 65% or more.
    Be a Warren Buffet - get rich slowly and sleep well at night even if the market crashes.
    Don't be greedy.

    THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE AND I AM JUST A DOLT THAT KNOWS NOTHING
    AND YOU"DE BE FUCKED ROYALLY FOR LISTENING TO ME OR ANYTHING
    I SAY HERE, OR IN THE BITCOIN THREAD, WHERE I DIVULGE SOME
    DAMNING FACTS MEANT TO SCARE YOU AWAY FROM BEING A TOTAL IDIOT.

  7. #7957
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by 406 View Post
    Gold & oil also up...this really is looking like the everything bubble.
    Microsoft at it again

    Name:  msft.png
Views: 460
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  8. #7958
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    399
    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Have you been rebalancing every year? That is probably the right compromise for locking in gains vs trying to time the market which almost always fails and leaves more money on the table.

    Assuming you are 2 years to retirement, you are already probably pretty close to 60/40 stocks/bonds but you still have a 20+ year timeframe of investing to manage. I especially wouldn't try and get cute that close to retirement either.

    Otherwise US treasuries would get my vote as well. I would prefer muni bonds but you are working in a 401k so no real benefit there.
    54yrs old - could retire once I figure medical out - but enjoy the job and the benefits
    Have been on top of it, so re-balancing as needed. Currently have 30% in company stock (big bank, flat lined price, but good dividends) and only 5% in bonds (safety net only), rest is a small mix of various market funds (S&P, NASDAQ, International, etc.)

    Thinking of going 20% in company stock - 50% in US Treasuries and 30% in general market mix

  9. #7959
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,666

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    ďTreasuryĒ is a broad spectrum. With inverted yield curve and your stated need (two years) I donít see any benefit to owning the long end for you.

    My opinion is that short rates are going to fall, perhaps a lot, so a two year note might provide a pretty decent return.

    https://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/...ort-government

    Im heavy in bond fund with duration at 5 and 7 years which is relatively long. Iím sticking with them but would go shorter with any substantial new money.

  10. #7960
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    5,127
    I'm personally pretty wary of putting 20-30% in one company, but the dividend play on a blue chip is probably the best way to do it if you do.
    Live Free or Die

  11. #7961
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
    Posts
    2,190
    There is no way I would ever have 20% of my portfolio tied up in a single company, especially the company that I work for. It's pretty much the worst thing you can do, especially that close to retirement.

  12. #7962
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    LV-426
    Posts
    15,622
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    There is no way I would ever have 20% of my portfolio tied up in a single company, especially the company that I work for. It's pretty much the worst thing you can do, especially that close to retirement.
    This X2. I also would not go 95/5 stock/bond allocation.

    YMMV obviously.

    For those planning on retirement soon, you may consider the "bond tent" theory - Google it - which is basically to start with a higher than generally-recommended bond allocation (eg maybe 25/75 stock/bond), and gradually reallocate over 10 years or so, to a generally recommended allocation (eg maybe 50/50). Theory is to try to avoid a bad sequence of returns early in retirement.

    No guarantees in any investment strategy obviously.
    Quote Originally Posted by powder11 View Post
    if you have to resort to taking advice from the nitwits on this forum, then you're doomed.

  13. #7963
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    2 hours from anything
    Posts
    7,861
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    2y notes still offer decent yield


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    My parents said they just received an offer of %4 on a savings account, $50k maximum from their local credit union. Seems too good to be true, Iíll check it out more but how can they be offering that much over treasury?

  14. #7964
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Posts
    996

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    My parents said they just received an offer of %4 on a savings account, $50k maximum from their local credit union. Seems too good to be true, Iíll check it out more but how can they be offering that much over treasury?
    Money market acct? Iím getting 3.14 at Merrill which thought was pretty good. Acts like checking acct.
    Last edited by CascadeLuke; 06-21-2019 at 11:29 AM.

  15. #7965
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
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    Movin' On
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    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    My parents said they just received an offer of %4 on a savings account, $50k maximum from their local credit union. Seems too good to be true, I’ll check it out more but how can they be offering that much over treasury?
    What credit union? I've heard of rewards checking accounts offering high yields, but you have to make X number of debit card purchases per month and have direct deposit.

  16. #7966
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    11,377
    A Colorado judgement lien on real estate will net 8% a year. Granted you need to foreclose, or wait for a sale, but that's easy and can't be beat. I'm just waiting for all the evil cunts who haven't paid me to cry when they or their family goes to sell, or I decide to get feisty.

  17. #7967
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    cow hampshire
    Posts
    4,025
    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    My parents said they just received an offer of %4 on a savings account, $50k maximum from their local credit union. Seems too good to be true, Iíll check it out more but how can they be offering that much over treasury?
    Sounds like a brokerage deal, no?

    I dumped some cash into Wealthfronts savings plan. It just bumped up to 2.51. I'm holding it there to pay college stuff.

  18. #7968
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,666
    France 10Y turned negative yield today. US back below 2%.

  19. #7969
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,666
    Jeff Bezos has made $17.4 million dollars a day, everyday, for the last 25 years.

  20. #7970
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    South of 49
    Posts
    777
    10 year bond rates just slipped below 2 year bond rates.
    That's a recession indicator.

  21. #7971
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    SE USA
    Posts
    1,898
    So what is "the" gauge for Mutual Funds these days? is it still morningstar ratings? are there other metrics for finding good funds?
    "Can't you see..."

  22. #7972
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,666

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    WSJ:

    "In America, older workers have been responsible for just about all of the net employment expansion over the last recovery. From 2007 to 2018, the number of prime-age employees has grown by a mere 300,000--that is, by +0.3%."

    Geezers rejoining the work force

  23. #7973
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    The 8th best place in the LBP
    Posts
    2,629
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    WSJ:

    "In America, older workers have been responsible for just about all of the net employment expansion over the last recovery. From 2007 to 2018, the number of prime-age employees has grown by a mere 300,000--that is, by +0.3%."

    Geezers rejoining the work force
    Or maybe people 54-60 who got pink slipped.

  24. #7974
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
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    Netflix moving after hours

  25. #7975
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
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    Movin' On
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marshall Tucker View Post
    So what is "the" gauge for Mutual Funds these days? is it still morningstar ratings? are there other metrics for finding good funds?
    Haven't you heard? No one is buying mutual funds anymore. It's been proven countless times that it is impossible to beat the market consistently, so index funds and low cost ETFs have taken over. VTSAX is a great option if you are looking for exposure to US equities. VBTLX for US bond market and VTWSX for international equities.

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