Is the stock market going to tank?

[Benny Profane]

There is no truth. Don't you know?

[4matic]

“The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.” – William Shakespeare

[Cono Este]

Today’s high was a solid place for high volume sellers to show up. Not people who panic.


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[4matic]

Stimulus style stocks rallied today. Growth was down.

[Benny Profane]

“The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.” – William Shakespeare

That's fucking profound.

[liv2ski]

That's fucking profound.

But true

[highangle]

“The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.” – William Shakespeare

Circular reasoning, false dilemma, begs the question: Was Willy himself any authority on the subject?

[Benny Profane]

But true

I see what you did there.

[schuss]

Circular reasoning, false dilemma, begs the question: Was Willy himself any authority on the subject?

When it comes to financial markets - yeah:
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...esearchers-say

[Benny Profane]

US air travel is now down 90% YoY on a rolling weekly basis (not accumulated YTD traffic). India domestic & international now shut down. American, JetBlue, Spirit all yuge debt loads. Southwest, Qantas, Delta probably ok. Euro travel industry probably bankrupt by mid-April. Interesting how tourism spots like Thailand are juking stats to mitigate economic impact. Seeing how fragile & near-collapse large swaths of the developed economies are proving to be, I can't blame them. Our friends south of the border seem to be on a similar tack.

I keep going back and forth on this. The calculus favoring shutdowns seems to ignore the tail risk of a complete financial system implosion where the central banks have to acquire effectively the whole system (north of $100 trillion, anyhow). Like, they have to fucking print not only the GDP activity offset but also the attendant debt contracts rendered non-performing, which is a multiple of the underlying GDP offset. And doing that means the insurance & derivative exposure likely needs to be printed too, so ya just multiply that debt figure another 5x. I can't help but wonder if we'd just be better off saying "shit is weird, let's focus govt subsidies on food, energy supply & let the shadow bankers shank each other behind the scenes."

Sounds like it's time for a debt holiday.

[rideit]

From what I am reading, the stimulus cash is really just a 0 interest loan to yourself, which will be added to (or subtracted from) your 2020 tax refund (or payment). Not sure on the details yet, though, I think it might be a sticking point in negotiations.

[mcsquared]

From what I am reading, the stimulus cash is really just a 0 interest loan to yourself, which will be added to (or subtracted from) your 2020 tax refund (or payment). Not sure on the details yet, though, I think it might be a sticking point in negotiations.

I think that is only if you are over the income limits. They aren't going to means test it but rather just send out the checks and then those over the limit will have to pay it back when they file their 2020 taxes. I think.

[Mazderati]

From 282,000 jobless two weeks ago to 3,280,000 jobless today. The peak claim in 2009 was 665,000.

[SKIP IN7RO]

They better start working on another stimulus bill geared solely towards this. That $1200 coming in a month or so ain't gonna cut it.

[skaredshtles]

Probably more important to the dentists 'round here:

[Cono Este]

1200 is nothing. You can shore up corporations, but it won’t matter if the people who spend money, not hoard it, have none.


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[jackstraw]

We need shelter in place nationally ffs. This is going to drag out longer than it should and devastate the economy.

[Benny Profane]

From 282,000 jobless two weeks ago to 3,280,000 jobless today. The peak claim in 2009 was 665,000.

Holy shit.


Annnddddd......stock market rallying!

[liv2ski]

Holy shit.


Annnddddd......stock market rallying!

Holy shit is right. Short the dead cat bounce tomorrow?

[ncskier]

Holy shit is right. Short the dead cat bounce tomorrow?

I don' have the balls to short these moves.
I can't believe this action to be honest. Is this is all short covering. I'm leaning towards being detached from all fundamentals at this point. It's more casino like. 3.2 million unemployment claims is ridiculous and someone else posted, but yes 1200 is nothing for more than a couple of weeks at best

[Cono Este]

I don' have the balls to short these moves.
I can't believe this action to be honest. Is this is all short covering. I'm leaning towards being detached from all fundamentals at this point. It's more casino like. 3.2 million unemployment claims is ridiculous and someone else posted, but yes 1200 is nothing for more than a couple of weeks at best

We closed the trump gap. Almost to the penny. It’s over.

Now we’re in limbo, putting in a new value range and waiting on information/impact. I’d say big sellers up where we were yesterday, big buyers where we bottomed.

Set alerts and go for a bike ride.


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[Mazderati]

[Name Redacted]

Throw that $1200 check at the market and let it ride. Free gambling money.

[LeeLau]

More on mREITs. Missed TWO yesterday so all academic now

They packaged and sold off their non agency MBS

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/two-h...201200237.html


Book value halved. So div should be .80/share per annum. Hoping it retraces for a dumpster buy.

[Cono Este]

Throw that $1200 check at the market and let it ride. Free gambling money.

Good thing the casinos are shut.


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