Results 12,851 to 12,875 of 18218
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01-14-2021, 12:32 PM #12851
Yeah P/E is almost useless for companies growing revenues over 15%. And it isn’t the be all end all for any company. Current P/E in a lot of industries is bleh as well. “Oh you’re earnings over the last year are X% lower than expected? Geez I wonder why”
I don’t have any opinion on McDonald’s but it’s a fair question to ask. For something like McDonald’s, widely traded and analyzed (its huge) you want to get beyond just using metrics you find on yahoo. Have an opinion on how some of those metrics are going to change over the next 1/3/10 years. Why are revenues going to grow more than x%? Why are margins going to change? How can they/will they alter their balance sheet to accommodate xyz? And measure some of your assumptions against what’s out there in analyst expectations. Anything less than this...you’re guessing and gambling.
Then you can plug in your own metrics for the future and have an opinion. But don’t just throw it out because it has a P/E at a certain level. Growing earnings is kiiiiiinda important in investing. And that reduces P/E on its own.
Companies with ridiculously high P/E ratios BEFORE they took over the world:
Netflix google Tesla Amazon nvidia Slack palantir (I think was negative earnings).Decisions Decisions
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01-14-2021, 01:11 PM #12852
^^^ There should be a LIKE button on TGR for posts like this.
Afterthought: According to How McDonald's Really Makes Money, they are actually a real-estate business. Perhaps an extreme view considering the thought that goes into the food & brand marketing end of things. However, with razor thin margins, they have to make the real bucks somewhere (rent).
How does their real estate holdings attractiveness/profits look in coming years? Has covid hit retail enough that they might have a rough ride? Or it has made their higher traffic retail locations even more valuable?Last edited by puregravity; 01-14-2021 at 01:48 PM. Reason: added realestate schmoo
OH, MY GAWD! ―John Hillerman Big Billie Eilish fan.
But that's a quibble to what PG posted (at first, anyway, I haven't read his latest book) ―jono
we are not arguing about ski boots or fashionable clothing or spageheti O's which mean nothing in the grand scheme ― XXX-er
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01-14-2021, 01:27 PM #12853Registered User
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Current strategy of 50% UVXY and 50% SQQQ holding fairly flat and boring so far. I hypothesize that tomorrow is going to get hella weird.
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01-14-2021, 02:31 PM #12854
I've not sold. Since we talked I sold CSPs on GME, bought some more when Cohen announced 3 appointees to board; but more importantly gave notice he would buy another 6% more. The stock hovered around 20 even after that kind of bullish news.
Tomorrow will be day 3 of the pump. I fully expect a retrace to mid 30s.
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01-14-2021, 03:05 PM #12855
Yeah I freed up another big chunk of the YOLO account to buy more on the next dip. I'm thinking tomorrow will retrace some, but possibly not till Tuesday.
Do you have a sell price? I don't see a reason if the momentum of Cohen taking things in his direction maintains, especially with added Q4 earnings boost potential.
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01-14-2021, 03:23 PM #12856
Sell price - not really. Its about $2B MC for $ 5B in sales. Sure it's bricks and mortar but that's about right for a flat growth bricks and mortar.
If it gets an ecommerce strategy figured out then call that a 2x multiple (halving that of pure e-comm plays like Chewy). So $ 50 - $ 60?
Not hanging my hat on short squeeze. Melvin Capital is a big fund and GME is a small position for them relatively speaking.
EDIT. Just saw GME mooning again afterhours. I sold some 45C today. I'll probably let those get assigned and take the capital gains (cost basis is mid 13s). I do want to be long again but believe the shares will drop after this rather alarmingly massive move so I'll sell puts to replace the GME shares I have that get assigned.Last edited by LeeLau; 01-23-2021 at 09:12 PM.
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01-14-2021, 04:31 PM #12857
Cramer claiming BBBY and GME shorters targeted by social networking orchestrated crush the shorters groups. Wallstreetbeats encouraging people to buy and place bullish positions. GME has a float of 138%!
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01-14-2021, 07:16 PM #12858Decisions Decisions
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01-14-2021, 08:50 PM #12859
What’s the bull case for GME? It’s a record store.
Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.
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01-15-2021, 08:17 AM #12860
You'd have to dig through the annals of WSB to find the original idea. Essentially short squeeze opportunity along with new leadership (CHEWY Guy, Ryan Cohen) taking a lead to transform the B&M model to more of an Ecommerce and bring it into the 21st century. All that speculation fueled by memes and the Degens of WSB Yoloing life savings into it. Been fun to watch and ride along.
Edit:
It's now to the point where Cramer is mentioning WSB and the retardation almost daily on his show.
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01-15-2021, 08:58 AM #12861Rod9301
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01-15-2021, 10:57 AM #12862Registered User
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01-15-2021, 12:00 PM #12863Registered User
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Agree, but the corollary statement/question is what companies took on ridiculously high P/E ratios before they eventually imploded? Right now, it seems over the next 1-3 years, Tesla could either "take over the world" or implode. Some of the other cos. on the list have passed that threshold question (unless you go to a longer time horizon and bring up Sears).
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01-15-2021, 02:14 PM #12864
Competition in the EV biz will eventually catch up to TSLA. I don't see TSLA imploding, but I do see erosion of their stock price. It's crazy that a company with a $500 billion market cap is worth more than the 9 largest car producers in the world. They can build a car plant every year for the next 10 years, and still not get to the production level of those 9 auto manufacturers.
I guess time will tell."We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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01-15-2021, 02:55 PM #12865Registered User
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01-15-2021, 03:15 PM #12866
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01-15-2021, 03:29 PM #12867
It's simpler than that. Dodd-Graham sum of parts analysis gave GME a book value of between $ 25 - $ 35. Add successful e-commerce and add 1.5 - 3x to that. Add console cycle revenue and margin bump and give that a secular 1 - maybe 2 year bump of another 2x. Speculation re short squeeze and other magic juju beans re WSB gang of idiots acting in concert is just speculation
I despise Musk and the Musk Bros and have never ever owned a share of TSLA (to my sorrow) but TSLA should not be valued as an automobile company. It's a technology play and one that breaks many models
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01-15-2021, 03:35 PM #12868Registered User
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01-15-2021, 03:56 PM #12869
Just kinda shows it really is like gambling. You can do all the research under the sun, but you’re still one lawsuit, stupid management decision, whistleblower, or paradigm shift from downfall.
Today was my first decently down day of the year. XOM rally slowed by a whistleblower report of inflated Permian assests and crude dipped a bit. Luckily my healthcare stock ACCD curbed my losses, they reported purchasing a telemed firm to enhance their offerings. Something no amount research would have told me.
What to do when energy dips? Hell yeah, buy more. Talked the wife into letting me have another 5k from savings. Ordered 100 shares of MMP, so far 76 of them have filled for my price. Midstreams are the REIT’s of energy, MMP is yielding right at 9%. Debating whether to throw the leftover cash into 3 shares of AAPL or 19 of EPD.
Edit to note, I bought GE as well. At $10.01, .Last edited by BobMc; 01-15-2021 at 04:32 PM.
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01-15-2021, 04:03 PM #12870
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01-15-2021, 04:14 PM #12871
GE bagholder from 12 riding to 6 and I guess its back a bit now but oh so painful
AI, autonomous decision-making software, power DISTRIBUTION, patented battery tech, production processes baked into manufacturing, systems integration and creating a sector. I'd say they've proven themselves to be a tech company
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01-15-2021, 04:19 PM #12872Registered User
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If you had enough cash today would be a good time to grab some ENPH after a little dip. It's been on a heckuva run for a while. They recently got an exclusive contract for some huge project in Indonesia or something like that and with the alternative energy plan that Biden has I bet they win big.
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01-15-2021, 04:21 PM #12873
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01-15-2021, 04:44 PM #12874
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01-15-2021, 05:01 PM #12875Registered User
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Bobmc, be careful man.... Don't put in anything that you might need in the near to medium term. I see a world of hurt on the horizon. Dxy rising, yields rising, yadda yadda yadda. Cash is a position.
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