Is the stock market going to tank?

[406]

I bought an irresponsible amount of sqqq and uvxy today. Pray for me.

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Can you or someone explain how those short funds work longer term? I had thought you had to sell after a short period?

[LeeLau]

Can you or someone explain how those short funds work longer term? I had thought you had to sell after a short period?

They don't work over a long period. They are subject to time decay

[Brock Landers]

Can you or someone explain how those short funds work longer term? I had thought you had to sell after a short period?

They don’t work long term. You buy for a 3-4 day period at most where you have a strong view. The leverage in it plus fees decays value faster than you gain over time. You don’t “have” to sell but you def should.

[406]

That is what I thought, I misunderstood the posts above mine. Thanks.

[mcsquared]

Exactly. They don't work long term. I have trailing stops and am usually in and out within a couple days or as long as thing keep moving the right direction. I think thing might continue down to sideways for the rest of this week, possibly into next.

[dschane]

The strong bear's view (article below was linked in this FT editorial):

https://www.gmo.com/americas/researc...he-last-dance/

[Danno]

The strong bear's view (article below was linked in this FT editorial):

https://www.gmo.com/americas/researc...he-last-dance/

Interesting.

For the non-investor (ie one in simple things like Vanguard funds) where do you park your money if you believe that view? A money market? Or is there something better?

[El Chupacabra]

Interesting.

For the non-investor (ie one in simple things like Vanguard funds) where do you park your money if you believe that view? A money market? Or is there something better?

Grantham has been saying the same thing for years. Perma-bear.

Look at the performance of his fund, GBMFX.

So, the answer is to not listen to him, and invest according to your own investment strategy.

[rod9301]

Grantham has been saying the same thing for years. Perma-bear.

Look at the performance of his fund, GBMFX.

So, the answer is to not listen to him, and invest according to your own investment strategy.

He's not a perma bear. He likes value in the us and emerging markets.

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[mcf258]

Interesting.

For the non-investor (ie one in simple things like Vanguard funds) where do you park your money if you believe that view? A money market? Or is there something better?

I think the real question is what % correction triggers adding substantially to your stock position. Money parked is just that, parked, generally a long term a loser in our low interest rate environment. In my case at the beginning of retirement I wanted a cash reserve so I didn't have to sell into a declining market so it was "worth" having some cash.

[El Chupacabra]

He's not a perma bear. He likes value in the us and emerging markets.

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Google his name and "perma bear."

[LeeLau]

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SIGL?p=SIGL

Signal advance is a medical tech company. Musk tweeted about Signal which is a charitable org making a secure messaging app. Buyers have the wrong ticker symbol but sent it to the moon

[Brock Landers]

Interesting.

For the non-investor (ie one in simple things like Vanguard funds) where do you park your money if you believe that view? A money market? Or is there something better?

I jumped out of much of the market in mid August. Kept some larger tech, but put the bulk in long treasuries, more gold, and cash. Ive missed out on a nice run for sure but when the market got back to Jan/Feb highs, all the concerns that were out there at the time including the rather important slowing earnings growth PLUS ramifications from an innocuous little global pandemic make me wonder. Yep, government stimulus helps...low rates help (as they did in Jan/Feb) but it seems like manufactured economic activity. Im just not sure broad earnings growth across most industries justifies where we are at. Yep...better earnings growth than the beginning of the pandemic...but relative to Q2/Q3/Q42019, what are earnings expectations for Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 2021?

[LeeLau]

DASH tore me a new one. Covered half. Will revisit circa March 9th when there's a significant lockup expiration

[brutah]

anyone thinking about buying AAPL, FB, or TWTR?

I suspect it will bounce back, anyone disagree?

[Platinum Pete]

anyone thinking about buying AAPL, FB, or TWTR?

I suspect it will bounce back, anyone disagree?

TWTR has never been a great business, their ARPU is bad and will always be compared to other social competitors like FB and PINS.
AAPL and FB are both cornerstones of my current portfolio. FB has some risks, many of them in the news lately, but their company is a cash machine that is still growing and they have a lot of runway with their current assets. People won't stop using FB all together, FB keeps finding new ways to lock in users or make more from existing: Portal is the new home phone, Instagram shopping, WhatsApp for AI/ML driven customer service.... They could unlock something that grows them 20%
How does AAPL grow 20% or more? Maybe car stuff, maybe 5G unlocks something for them, hard to say. AAPL's upside is in bigger bets and incremental growth of services. App Store monopolistic behavior is a risk, but I doubt they are formally regulated.
Both AAPL and FB have been in the same range for a while, while other names have been growing faster. You might be better off scratching this itch with an ETF like QQQ or one of the consumer tech focused ETFs.

[Toadman]

anyone thinking about buying AAPL, FB, or TWTR?

I suspect it will bounce back, anyone disagree?

Nope. Hot potatoes. The Repubs would like to destroy FB and TWTR. AAPL, who knows. Just buy BTC, that seems to be the answer to all of life's investing questions.

[pureantigravity]

^^^ Although I don't know why FB hasn't done better the last few years. They have such a captive market, so many good groups popping up, marketplace is a strong contender to craigslist and ebay. The people on FB have disposable income and have a wide age range.

[BobMc]

I’d agree with all of that. (Platinum Pete) How many ads do you see on Twitter? They just don’t monetize the eyeballs like Facebook does, half your feed on Facebook is ads for stuff you may be interested in (According to their algos.)

The car stuff could be big for Apple, I’m betting they sell a shit ton of 5g phones once it becomes more widespread.

Hydrogen up big today. Plug made a deal with Renault to build vehicles, that took pretty much the whole sector along for the ride. That’s probably my biggest miss, I only have one share of PLUG and one of BE, in at $24 and $17 repectively. Sold all my FCEL at $6.63.

It has been rather satisfying to see many analysts raising ratings and price targets on oil companies due to higher oil prices. Pretty sure I’ve been saying that for a bit. Crude jumped again today on an inventory draw of way over double expectations. My oil and midstream stocks are outperforming the renewable stuff I own.

[LeeLau]

TWTR has never been a great business, their ARPU is bad and will always be compared to other social competitors like FB and PINS.

Same - I would pick FB or AAPL over TWTR. If TWTR ever started some sort of recurring revenue monetization service then I'd look at them seriously. Don't know actually why one would lump FB or AAPL into the same category other than both are tech mega caps.

[roverdoc]

Fb has a lot of room to run. Been trading relatively sideways and is a money printing machine. It is so easy to shop and buy through instagram today and I suspect they are going to get a nice bump in earnings on top of ads etc in future quarters. hold long. AAPL continues to perform as expected. Beating the indexes and will likely continue to do so. Slow and steady in this one.

[pureantigravity]

Perhaps Zuckerberg is seen as a liability.

[Ireallyliketoski2]

I think there will be a 10-20% correction in April when everyone sells everything they bought in March after the crash for the long term capital gains. Other than that, the economic activity is definitely propped up by the systems that be, but I learned a long time ago to not short the market, buy and hold, sell for profit, reinvest, diversify, all those good things.

disclosure
I'm currently long AMZN, BABA, BAC, CRM, CVS, CVX, DKNG, FSLR, GOOG, JNJ, JPM, KO, LUV, NFLX, NIO, PRU, PYPL, V, VZ

[Lawless]

GME going nuts today.

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[CovertM]

GME going nuts today.

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Holding strong here...