Is the stock market going to tank?

**GeezerSteve** · 05-16-2020, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

And their landlords.

Gonna be a bloodbath. I've been through it a couple times before, but prolly not of this scope. And I fear this time more retail sites will become ghost towns compared to prior retail recessions. Brick & mortar vacancies will increase and LL's will chase guarantors. LLs will be required to mitigate, but few newcomers are gonna sign leases. After 2008-09 crash, one of my LL clients lost an anchor tenant which, after intensive marketing, was eventually replaced by a Goodwill at 30% of prior rent. Defaulting anchor tenants insiders/guarantors complained that my client failed to reasonable mitigate (which makes no sense cuz of fucking course a LL wants highest rent possible). Case went to court and we prevailed. 4 expert witnesses. On cross, defendants' witnesses failed to identify a single viable alternative replacement tenant. Goddam waste of time and money. And the guarantors were ordered to pay my fees.

I'm pondering getting back into the retail bankruptcy game -- part time only. Gonna be lots of Chapter 11 action, creative workouts, etc. in the next 5 years.

**Benny Profane** · 05-16-2020, 05:04 PM

Bankruptcy for a decade on all levels.

Remember an interview with a few of the team who did Lehman early. One figured he had a job for ten years. Now this. He has a solid resume for the rest of his career

**DougW** · 05-16-2020, 08:39 PM

Thoughts on companies that lend or lease to small to med sized companies??

small-ticket equipment leasing and lending to small and medium-sized businesses

" Its asset-based financial services include asset-based lending, including factoring, lease financing, working capital financing, credit protection and receivables management, and supply chain financing for importers"

I'm thinking that they are not in for a good time.

**LeeLau** · 05-16-2020, 11:47 PM

Originally Posted by DougW

Thoughts on companies that lend or lease to small to med sized companies??

small-ticket equipment leasing and lending to small and medium-sized businesses

" Its asset-based financial services include asset-based lending, including factoring, lease financing, working capital financing, credit protection and receivables management, and supply chain financing for importers"

I'm thinking that they are not in for a good time.

I'm long SLRC. Boring af but they are asset backed and seem to maintain good coverage ratios. Having said that I'm there for the dividend. Look for boring

**Benny Profane** · 05-18-2020, 06:40 AM

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-c...st-their-minds

"Thaler said that nobody really knows what is driving all the stock trading. “It could be that it’s just a lot of people have a lot of time on their hands,” he said. “One friend suggested to me it is replacing gambling. The casinos are closed and there are no sports to bet on.”"

**Benny Profane** · 05-18-2020, 09:29 AM

X

**Toadman** · 05-18-2020, 10:26 AM

I guess the markets like what Powell had to say. He just pushes a few buttons and digital creates however much money they decide to create. Isn't modern money creating technology grand!?

**Benny Profane** · 05-18-2020, 03:24 PM

This is nuts. Is this all retail investors? Therefore, are we in the, sell when the shoeshine boy and cab driver start giving you stock tips stage?

**bennymac** · 05-18-2020, 03:41 PM

can individual retail investors really be driving this? At any time - let alone at a time when most people are not making more money but rather less

**Benny Profane** · 05-18-2020, 04:46 PM

It's the Boomers with some money to play with and plenty of time to do it. I agree with the premise in the article I posted that this is a lot of sports gambling money looking for a game. That's a huge industry.

**californiagrown** · 05-18-2020, 04:59 PM

I got hammered last week on some haphazard stock picks. Woke up this morning, and they were (almost) all profitable. I cashed out everything around noon that i hadn't bought with a multi-year time horizon in mind. I feel like this was a second chance gifted to me and i'm using it to deleverage, take my profits and get my cash ready for what has to be an upcoming dip.

Or, ill sit out a few weeks of big gains that happen because of...fucking magic? and wonder why there is no rhyme or reason anymore.

**Toadman** · 05-19-2020, 10:32 AM

First cracks in the attempted rebound.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/defau...160427275.html

"So far this year, we’re almost running at a rate of double the defaults of last year,” said S&P Global CEO Douglas Peterson on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. “We think that there is going to be an increase in default levels up to potentially 10% of the high yield debt [markets].” In April, the rate was 3.9%.

Just out of curiosity I went on Neiman Marcus's website. No wonder they are going bankrupt. Even with 50% of sales, their junk is still way over priced.

**Kevo** · 05-19-2020, 10:55 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

X

This is some great news.

The lower GDP is, the less money companies make and the more people who are unemployed. Less money companies make and the more people who are unemployed, the higher stock prices go.

**Danno** · 05-19-2020, 10:56 AM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

Or, ill sit out a few weeks of big gains that happen because of...fucking magic? and wonder why there is no rhyme or reason anymore.

I decide to accept that a long time ago.

**Danno** · 05-20-2020, 09:50 AM

The stock market is doing its best to prove that it is utterly irrational.

**m2711c** · 05-20-2020, 10:16 AM

**Toadman** · 05-20-2020, 10:29 AM

I'm feeling exuberant today! And in a very rational way, I might add.

**El Chupacabra** · 05-20-2020, 10:38 AM

Originally Posted by m2711c

This thread needs a soundtrack.

https://www.reverbnation.com/alangreenspanproject/songs

**Benny Profane** · 05-20-2020, 11:16 AM

I'm telling you, the theory that a lot of this is gambling, especially sports gambling money, is not too far off the mark.

**Ted Striker** · 05-20-2020, 11:17 AM

agree

**Lone Star** · 05-20-2020, 01:13 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I'm telling you, the theory that a lot of this is gambling, especially sports gambling money, is not too far off the mark.

If I was about to enter a casino and someone gave me 1200 bucks....

but the casino shut down and there was no online poker or sports to bet on...

**LeeLau** · 05-21-2020, 09:14 AM

Covered rest of MVIS flat. It's dead money and the bag holders are tedious but tenacious.

Rebuilt the CHK short which got bought in earlier in the month. Hedged with calls

Watching LK die. No more shares to borrow but then again it never revealed an opportunity to add.

COVID scams appear to be petering out. On to the next new scam fashions

**Kevo** · 05-21-2020, 11:47 AM

Unemployment numbers were worse than expected. Shouldn't the market be up on the news?

**californiagrown** · 05-21-2020, 12:14 PM

As a very green investor (only started in late March)... this is not how the market typically behaves right? There is usually pretty good rhyme and reason, and correlation to the economy? I cashed out of most everything earlier this week, except for some energy stocks i bought in early April, because things just stopped making sense.

**Kevo** · 05-21-2020, 12:22 PM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

As a very green investor (only started in late March)... this is not how the market typically behaves right? There is usually pretty good rhyme and reason, and correlation to the economy? I cashed out of most everything earlier this week, except for some energy stocks i bought in early April, because things just stopped making sense.

When companies lose money they inherently lose value, which pushes their stock prices higher. When people lose their jobs they are less likely to spend money consuming goods. This means that companies will make less money going forward, which pushes stock prices higher.

The best hope for any company is to return to a pre-revenue stage (think unicorn tech startup like Instagram or Pinterest). If a company loses money with no plan to make money in the future the value of the company is infinite.