Is the stock market going to tank?

[BobMc]

I didn’t have as much cash as I thought I did, forgot I bought shares of EPD last week that hadn’t made it’s way through my margin account. Ended up buying 20 more shares of EPD with the cash I did have. I’m up to 231 shares of EPD, gonna just keep adding to that.

Left myself $220 in my account to possibly buy back my BBBY call. Thought I’d actually listen to Cramer for once, he thinks the WSB crew will be back to it. Regardless, if I can make $304.64 in 20 days and keep my shares I’ll take it. Set a limit order to buy it back at $1.95. We’ll see if it fills… I’m fine either way.

I wouldn’t mind keeping my shares and lather, rinse, repeat. This is my second time selling it, $66 the first go round and significantly more this go round (potentially).

[LeeLau]

My gut tells me exhaustion toppish gap for TRCH tomorrow with distinct possibility for 12s maybe even 15s. I'm 30% allocated and that may be my cue to get more. By end of week this will be over imo.

Didn't get my CCL sold via calls this week. That makes 14 straight month of calls I've collected on it! Or a total of just under $ 13 on my average price of $ 14. Almost at free shares now

[CovertM]

My gut tells me exhaustion toppish gap for TRCH tomorrow with distinct possibility for 12s maybe even 15s. I'm 30% allocated and that may be my cue to get more. By end of week this will be over imo.

Didn't get my CCL sold via calls this week. That makes 14 straight month of calls I've collected on it! Or a total of just under $ 13 on my average price of $ 14. Almost at free shares now

Agreed. Looking to exit tomorrow with any meaningful uptrend, likely premarket. Tempted to keep a couple/few hundred shares just to see what the dividend is and what MMAT potential could be after the merger/fallout.

Did you go long MMAT?

Great movement with ATOS today, but I cannot get $1 for July $10 calls. May just hold off and sell some shares to take profits.

Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda sold calls on RIOT/MARA last week. We’ll see where it goes…


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[LeeLau]

Agreed. Looking to exit tomorrow with any meaningful uptrend, likely premarket. Tempted to keep a couple/few hundred shares just to see what the dividend is and what MMAT potential could be after the merger/fallout.

Did you go long MMAT?

Great movement with ATOS today, but I cannot get $1 for July $10 calls. May just hold off and sell some shares to take profits.

Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda sold calls on RIOT/MARA last week. We’ll see where it goes…

Never did get around to looking at ATOS. Bike season is distracting me.

Sold some RIOT calls today. The 34C weeklies. Not many but enough to top up cash.

I did think of going long MMATF but the bid/ask is sloppy; the spread on the arb is closing and I'm more convinced of TRCH's toppishness and exhaustion so decided to stay naked. Now there are 12.5C I could always put in a call spread to protect which is more attractive. Right now the play for me is TRCH is both a vega and mild theta play.

[pureantigravity]

What are the chances that we are going into a period with continued upwards momentum in both stocks AND bonds?
So many companies sitting on large safety nets of cash and they will eventually be convinced to part with it for anything that doesn't have a negative yield.

[californiagrown]

What are the chances that we are going into a period with continued upwards momentum in both stocks AND bonds?
So many companies sitting on large safety nets of cash and they will eventually be convinced to part with it for anything that doesn't have a negative yield.

to tack on to this question, is there any reason to wait to buy bonds at this point? I really need to get schooled on bonds and the bond market. Damn.

[4matic]

What are the chances that we are going into a period with continued upwards momentum in both stocks AND bonds?
So many companies sitting on large safety nets of cash and they will eventually be convinced to part with it for anything that doesn't have a negative yield.

40 year bull market in stocks and bonds is not new.

[LeeLau]

Never did get around to looking at ATOS. Bike season is distracting me.

Sold some RIOT calls today. The 34C weeklies. Not many but enough to top up cash.

I did think of going long MMATF but the bid/ask is sloppy; the spread on the arb is closing and I'm more convinced of TRCH's toppishness and exhaustion so decided to stay naked. Now there are 12.5C I could always put in a call spread to protect which is more attractive. Right now the play for me is TRCH is both a vega and mild theta play.

Filled my TRCH short calls this morning in the mid 2s. Sold more RIOT 33C then prematurely sold RIOT 31C. The China shutdown of BTC miners is bullish for non-Chinese miners IMO but bearish for crypto generally. There's a chance of a crypto bear market for sure. DOGE is getting the sharp end of a triple headed black mamba lubeless! And it looks good on it.

GME did well though closing their 1BN atm offering. Probably closed in the mid-200s

[shera]

GME is rolling in cash now!

[Benny Profane]

to tack on to this question, is there any reason to wait to buy bonds at this point? I really need to get schooled on bonds and the bond market. Damn.

Well, when interest rates go up, the price of bonds drop. We're pretty much at the end of a 40 year bond bull market. Rates can't go any lower.

[Timberridge]

GME is rolling in cash now!

They should use it to buy back stock.

[shera]

Don't quit your day job.

[MultiVerse]

to tack on to this question, is there any reason to wait to buy bonds at this point? I really need to get schooled on bonds and the bond market. Damn.

DIY is fine if so inclined but perhaps consider proven fiat yield-farming funds instead because all the current popular bond narratives are probably wrong.

[Timberridge]

Don't quit your day job.

Here all day except Sat and Sun and major holidays for your entertainment.

Btw. It's not a crazy idea if the stock ends up going to $300 again. It's a 40% return.

[californiagrown]

DIY is fine if so inclined but perhaps consider proven fiat yield-farming funds instead because all the current popular bond narratives are probably wrong.

Basically anything is better than letting the money rot in a savings account (even a high yield one), so ill have to get busy schooling myself on the bond market. My bond investments are meant to be safe AF, so i would prefer to err on the side of conservative, tried and true proven performers, even if returns are less. thanks for another starting point to research from.

[abraham]

Basically anything is better than letting the money rot in a savings account (even a high yield one), so ill have to get busy schooling myself on the bond market. My bond investments are meant to be safe AF, so i would prefer to err on the side of conservative, tried and true proven performers, even if returns are less. thanks for another starting point to research from.

I'd be interested in what you find. I've gotta do this reading sometime soon as well.

[CovertM]

Basically anything is better than letting the money rot in a savings account (even a high yield one), so ill have to get busy schooling myself on the bond market. My bond investments are meant to be safe AF, so i would prefer to err on the side of conservative, tried and true proven performers, even if returns are less. thanks for another starting point to research from.

Decide what percent allocation of your total portfolio you would like to have in bonds/fixed income. Allocate across a short term fund, an intermediate fund, high yield, and international bond. I allocate using Ibbotson values for the most part. So for a 70/30 portfolio bond positions look like this: Short Term-6%, Intermediate-10.5%, High Yield-7.5%, International-6%.

Bond funds are better than individual bonds for most investors due to a number of reasons, but the ones I focus on are: Greater diversification per dollar invested (It takes a ton of capital to create your own bond ladder and achieve diverse duration, and the amount of time needed to research each bond is vast), Most funds/etfs pay monthly dividends rather than semi-annual coupons, Easier redemption.

ETA...Bonds are never Safe AF, they are an investment just like any other asset class, remember that. Are they potentially less volatile than Small Cap equities? Sure. If you really want safety put your money in MM fund or your bank account.

[Hopeless Sinner]

Basically anything is better than letting the money rot in a savings account (even a high yield one), so ill have to get busy schooling myself on the bond market. My bond investments are meant to be safe AF, so i would prefer to err on the side of conservative, tried and true proven performers, even if returns are less. thanks for another starting point to research from.

I'm using short term, and ultra-short term ETFs for funds that are dedicated to near term needs. I could study bonds for years, but Vanguard has already done the work so why bother?

[CovertM]

Filled my TRCH short calls this morning in the mid 2s. Sold more RIOT 33C then prematurely sold RIOT 31C. The China shutdown of BTC miners is bullish for non-Chinese miners IMO but bearish for crypto generally. There's a chance of a crypto bear market for sure. DOGE is getting the sharp end of a triple headed black mamba lubeless! And it looks good on it.

GME did well though closing their 1BN atm offering. Probably closed in the mid-200s

Still holding those TRCHd bags of shit (still up plenty, but missed out selling yesterday). Will wait and see what dividend is and what happens with transition to MMAT.

ATOS ripping consoled me for the most part. Of course sold calls on 1/3 of my shares right before it ripped to $7.5, but got got $1.25 for 7/16 $10. With a CB of $1.4 at this point, I'd be fine to let a chunk go for $10+.

RIOT et, al seems to be more resilient lately to Crypto swings, didn't sell calls today will wait to see what happens the rest of the week.

So you made roughly 50% on your short play of TRCH? Sold them for $4.5 and bought back at $2.5ish? Smart play! Totally out of that position?

[LeeLau]

TRCH my short 10C average is mid 3s. I'm happy to cover soon. I was helped by its predictable love for massive dilution

RIOT is resilient but more importantly for my purposes maintains its high IV.

[CovertM]

TRCH my short 10C average is mid 3s. I'm happy to cover soon. I was helped by its predictable love for massive dilution

RIOT is resilient but more importantly for my purposes maintains its high IV.

Gotcha, you sold more today. Solid.

I'm just going to wait for my $20/share dividend

[LeeLau]

Gotcha, you sold more today. Solid.

I'm just going to wait for my $20/share dividend

yup sold at the open as I read it as an exhaustion gap. Didn't chase it down and that's OK

[CovertM]

yup sold at the open as I read it as an exhaustion gap. Didn't chase it down and that's OK

So you will just buy to close your position? The other option would've been to borrow shares at the top and buy back now that it has cratered? But there was a high borrow fee?

Any benefit to one or the other strategy? Seems like the risk is the same both ways, stock takes off and you're either buying shares to cover calls or buying to cover borrowed.

I got out pre-market with a paltry gain. Learned a lot this time with sticking to discipline of taking profit soon, especially if you have little to no conviction in the trade. Another lesson there, why throw money at a trade you have researched very little and have even less confidence in. Onward.

[pureantigravity]

Warren Buffett just in:

"Today is a milestone for me. In 2006, I pledged to distribute all of my Berkshire Hathaway shares – more than 99% of my net worth – to philanthropy. With today’s $4.1 billion distribution, I’m halfway there," Buffett wrote in a letter on Wednesday.

According to Buffett, when he made his commitment in 2006 he held 478,998 A-shares in Berkshire stock. As of today, he owns 238,624 shares, worth just north of $100 billion, which are also "destined for philanthropy."

Wow. Just wow.

[LeeLau]

So you will just buy to close your position? The other option would've been to borrow shares at the top and buy back now that it has cratered? But there was a high borrow fee?

Any benefit to one or the other strategy? Seems like the risk is the same both ways, stock takes off and you're either buying shares to cover calls or buying to cover borrowed.

I got out pre-market with a paltry gain. Learned a lot this time with sticking to discipline of taking profit soon, especially if you have little to no conviction in the trade. Another lesson there, why throw money at a trade you have researched very little and have even less confidence in. Onward.

There were close to no borrows which is why I never shorted. Post ex-dividend I knew the options would trade as a special derivative so the market for closing those options would become quite illiquid. There's a small chance the options themselves will squeeze so I sized accordingly. If I don't or can't buy to close (turns out OPRA rules allow me to buy to close even for this special close so that's no longer an issue) I could always buy the underlying TRCH ex-div to then turn this into a standard covered call situation.

TLDR - it's what you said but my read of the tape was that I didn't need to complete the protection leg of the trade (ie buy MMAT or buy out of money TRCH calls) as the underlying plummeted so quickly