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  1. #7751
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    Good read regarding Uber

    Fuck them.
    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

  2. #7752
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    Quote Originally Posted by PNWbrit View Post
    Good read regarding Uber

    Fuck them.
    Yeah, not only do they substitute stable, decent-paying jobs for shit jobs unworthy of household maintenance, they also lose a ton of money with little/no hope of achieving profitability. And the whole charade made founders & investors wealthy? Grift the poor, enrich the wealthy. Call it innovation & rely on a flaccid regulatory system to let it all pass.

  3. #7753
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    Like a kidney stone.

  4. #7754
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    Just gonna leave this here. Attachment 279114

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using TGR Forums mobile app

  5. #7755
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    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    Just gonna leave this here. Attachment 279114

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using TGR Forums mobile app

  6. #7756
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mar...C-988F6DBF13DEAttachment 279119

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using TGR Forums mobile app

  7. #7757
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    In a van... down by the river
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post

  8. #7758
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    Sep 2001
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    The Cone of Uncertainty
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    46,960
    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post

    From now on I'm just gonna put $100 in everything that comes out. Should work out great.

  9. #7759
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    From now on I'm just gonna put $100 in everything that comes out. Should work out great.
    Good plan.Attachment 279122

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using TGR Forums mobile app

  10. #7760
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    Oct 2006
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    MA
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    5,998
    Oh so invest early in the biggest companies over the last 50+ years- and missing all the dogs? Shit if I knew that I sure as shit wouldn’t be using free Pandora.
    Decisions Decisions

  11. #7761
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    Feb 2004
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    Loveland, Chair 9.
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    3,720
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Oh so invest early in the biggest companies over the last 50+ years- and missing all the dogs? Shit if I knew that I sure as shit wouldn’t be using free Pandora.
    ones that did that were the same ones that were using leveraged money to buy stocks when QE was first implemented in 2009, they spend all day and night looking for those opportunities; most anyone else that made it big from those stocks were likely employees with stock options.
    Eat em up Houston Cougars !

  12. #7762
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    Mar 2006
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    14,821
    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    From now on I'm just gonna put $100 in everything that comes out. Should work out great.
    There's an etf for that

  13. #7763
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    Cool garff on the IPO buys. Nowadays companies IPO after something absurd like 11years being private, on average (duration in private ownership is up something like 200% since 1999). Which means the opportunity is steadily being milked at the VC level before bags are dumped on the public. Still some good opportunity there over the long run but the picture now in terms of "entry level ownership proposition" is, on average, heavily diluted & skewed out of the public's favor. Yay corporatism.

  14. #7764
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    Jan 2008
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    Paper St. Soap Co.
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    2,319
    I would not have guessed S&P would be up 17% by April 4 months ago...I guess people can't afford their cars but are still buying iphones. I'm still thinking ~2% for 2019, but it is seeming less likely.

  15. #7765
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    seatown
    Posts
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    i lol’d at this one talking SNAP on reddit’s finest sub:

    //Lets get this straight. They lost 310M this quarter, and 191M last quarter, but they only show YoY comparisons because they are autistic, and everyone blindly follows EPS even though thats not always the best metric.

    Fucking autism. Thank god I sold my puts at breakeven on Monday.//

  16. #7766
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    Mar 2006
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    The dollar is on the verge of a breakout. AUD/USD chart is gloomy. EM ex China is only up a little this year. We could have a confluence of strong dollar, strong oil, strong bonds...and a melt up in stocks. My hunch is a sharp move in the dollar is imminent. Up or down.

    Edit: Aussie 10y is at 1% yield. It wasnt long ago it was considerably higher than US 10y yield.
    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  17. #7767
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    The dollar is on the verge of a breakout. AUD/USD chart is gloomy. EM ex China is only up a little this year. We could have a confluence of strong dollar, strong oil, strong bonds...and a melt up in stocks. My hunch is a sharp move in the dollar is imminent. Up or down.
    Some variation of the dollar milkshake theory could be playing out. Throw out the extremes/hyperbole and you still have a recipe for something that can influence sentiment. Set this alert on DXY in January, I think.

    Attachment 279874

  18. #7768
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    Quote Originally Posted by PNWbrit View Post
    Good read regarding Uber

    Fuck them.
    Yeah, so our small town got Lyft last year. I'm a county transit driver, and I had a coworker who went all-in on Lyft right at the beginning. Bought a Prius, did a lot of heavy marketing, tried to get all the incentives to refer drivers and get people free rides and all of it.

    When I first moved back here (hometown) and couldn't find a job, I drove a taxi for like 6 months. I kept really detailed records, so I had an idea what was coming in per mile, per hour, on what days....from tips or from fares, etc.... I asked this Lyft guy to come over while he was waiting around for rides (he lives 30 miles from town, so when he's down he's just sitting in the car) and look at my books and compare what he was doing with what I had done.
    He eventually came over but was more or less unable and/or unwilling to get into all the details of the income and his operating costs. The whole thing was all murky for him because he was trying to mitigate that 60 miles of commuting with writing those expenses off, and he didn't have any specifics as to how much that would be actually worth.

    So I thought about it and used what numbers I could find to try and make some estimates of income. Quick, rough estimates seemed like a break-even deal if you factored in all the operating expenses of the vehicle. I decided to run it until I had some actual numbers and see what it looked like. So my wife and I switched vehicles and I took her Hyundai Accent (30-40mpg) and drove Lyft for a couple of months last summer. Here's what I found:

    1) I'm convinced most Lyft/Uber drivers aren't carefully and comprehensively tracking the overall operating costs of their vehicles....So they finish driving 100 miles, they have $50, and they put $12 of gas in the car figuring they just made $38. In talking to a lot of these drivers, I'm convinced of that, I saw it so much. They're not figuring an overall per-mile operating cost for the vehicle...my Hyundai was around 0.30 to 0.35 per mile....this is tires and maintenance and insurance, etc...not necessarily depreciation. Or another way to put it: the income from Lyft would not have supported a car payment for a suitable vehicle and a wage for me. It's just enough to pay for the car. So if I had bought a Prius like my coworker, I would be staying out until 2am working that car in order to pay for the car, but not producing much more.
    This means, in my estimation, many drivers are just turning their vehicle into cash, but not really generating income. That's why the guy in that article has "made" $40,000 but also now has a used-up car and can't afford to buy a replacement.

    2) The relatively low barriers to entry and murky financial picture means there are always people giving it a try. Those people are moving passengers and generating income for Lyft's corporate business model, but may be barely making any money, or even losing money (idling to stay warm in the cold while getting no rides...that kind of thing). It's reminiscent of the shitty leasing operations you see in trucking, where the trucking company makes money on the freight and the lease and passes all the risks and operating costs of the tractor onto the driver, many of whom ultimately lose money....then the tractor goes back into a company fleet or is leased again by new desperate and/or optimistic people coming in to give it a try. The business model just chews people up and spits them out.
    If I could clear $2 per short ride with a reasonable tip, and do that 4 times an hour (which is a realistic setup for what I ran here), I could call it a low-wage, no-supervisor job. However, the more people here became aware of Lyft, the more drivers there were, and the availability of rides dropped to where my coworker would sit for hours in his car with no work. I was at home, so it was less of an issue for me...until there were so many that they started sitting right outside the places most likely to produce a ride, so I would have had to go sit in the car all night to be competitive....to raise my income from $2/hour to 3.50 or something. Fuck that.

    3) When the lack of rides gets to a certain point, people stop signing-in and there's more work available for the remaining drivers, but the whole thing is a system that finds it's own level....each location is going to have its own levels...how much income potential gets people into driving, how slow it has to be for them to quit...it will fluctuate, but it seeks a water level, and the level where I live is dictated by a few factors:
    -College students, with free time, given a free vehicle from their parents.
    -Retirees who aren't really concerned with profitability and just want something to do. I would have doubted this, except there were a few specific guys who made no money, and probably lost money at it....out there driving full size 4 door V8 Chevy trucks. One was a retired cop and just wanted to be out driving around at night, like a psycho....never really looked at his numbers, just knew he had money at the end of the night and thought that was cool. Another was a retired miner and just wanted to be out driving around at night, like a psycho...same deal, "hey I've got money" at the end of the night.
    -The overall low-wages of the region. There's an afscme union local here still making single-digit wages. I know this because my union council rep tried to use it to show how awesome my local members had it making $11/hour. Double-digits! Killing it!


    4) There's a key choice to be made here: You go full-chaos into the downtown party scene at 2am and have accidents and incidents with volatile, wasted people in your vehicle, and you get more work.....or you avoid the risk and get less work. Some of what Lyft has done in designing the platform makes it hard to manage risk...for example: I couldn’t see a destination until somebody was in my car. I know the sketchy areas, and where I live it’s not a racial thing. If I could see “hampton inn” as the destination versus “sketchy acres trailer court” I’d have a way to mitigate some of that risk.
    Frustratingly, you can't use a beater car for Lyft. They won't allow you to run anything that's really old or beat up....so you're supposed to take this big risk with your vehicle....running uninsured, because the insurance riders for ride-share driving put you into money-losing territory immediately.
    Similarly, and this overlaps, you rate chaotic or smelly, or sketchy people 3 stars or less and you don't see them again.....but you lose that "business".....and here, a lot of the people who need a cab ride are sketchy chaotic people.....or you take them and they scream at each other and scream at you from the back seat of your car. They try to pile 6 wasted people in your small car. They puke. They don't tip. One of them rasps puke air at you to go to one address and the other belching cigarette breath to go to some other place, they can't agree....
    They want to go to some meth trailer on a mud road in the middle of nowhere. You're already out 40 minutes by the time you're close enough to see what this is turning into....
    They want to go out past the cell service so the whole fucking thing doesn't work where they're going and it fucks up the fare.
    Coworker went full bar-closing-time chaos for awhile, then had a bunch of interactions with police and getting pulled over at night with sketchy strangers in the car and dangerous stuff where it was like, he's starting to be associated with a sketchy crowd of people who are awful to have in your car and don't tip. And when there's no tip, there's no income. So he started down-rating them and lost a lot of that business.
    I immediately calculated this "job" wasn't worth getting hurt or arrested or getting my wife's car puked-in or dented-up or having a dirty needle in the back seat or any of it. So I missed out on a lot of those sketchy fares, I guess, but I also got enough of them to know I wasn’t missing out on much.


    The traditional relationship between business and employee is that the employee is paid for the work regardless and the business assumes the risk that the venture itself may not be profitable...that seems right to me. In this case these trucking and rideshare companies have found a way to engineer that the corporation gets paid regardless and the employee assumes the risk of the profitability of the venture. This, to me, is an enormous failure of our political and regulatory climate. It's grotesque imho.
    Last edited by ill-advised strategy; 04-24-2019 at 09:33 AM.

  19. #7769
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    IS, you're a smart guy. You could manage a business. Something to think about.

  20. #7770
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    Jan 2010
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    your vacation
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    Quote Originally Posted by ill-advised strategy View Post


    The traditional relationship between business and employee is that the employee is paid for the work regardless and the business assumes the risk that the venture itself may not be profitable...that seems right to me. In this case these trucking and rideshare companies have found a way to engineer that the corporation gets paid regardless and the employee assumes the risk of the profitability of the venture. This, to me, is an enormous failure of our political and regulatory climate. It's grotesque imho.
    you made alot of good points

    the above quote pretty much sums it all up, the business makes as much money as they can, throws all the liability onto the subcontractor who takes all the risk, the tax liability, and start up costs

    at the end of the day, very very few people run their numbers like you did in your post, I'm constantly running numbers and reviewing costs in order to be more profitable, the building/contracting business is much like the lyft uber and all these new app based businesses

    I always had a saying/thought that some guys starts out with his business, gets a check for five grand and feels pretty rich, so he pisses away some of the money on a good time, makes a truck payment, buys some materials, pays himself, then all of the sudden the five grand is gone in two or so weeks. Meanwhile he has more materials to buy, another truck payment, another lunch/dinner out, and has to pay his buddies for their labor which he doesn't have money for and then at the end of the day he takes on another job, robs that job to pay for the one he is already doing and repeats over and over until he's broke and it all catches up with him

    once you get serious about running a business, your fucked, my prices are some of the highest around and I"m proud of it, i've got employees instead of the typical subcontractor 1099 employees that most contractors use, they cost me just over $9.00 an hr in overhead, it puts a huge dent in my costs and profit

    Right now I can't imagine how many people are running around this country with tax debt problems due to being a 1099 sub, meanwhile the ipo is making certain people rich as hell

  21. #7771
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    Modern Silicon Valley is, in large part, "not disrupting corporates anymore to serve the masses, they're disrupting desperate poor people to serve the rich.*"

    *@supermugatu quote

  22. #7772
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    Aug 2016
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    damn, that's a great post IS.

    question r.e. Uber Eats - what good delivery food in the US is there beyond Pizza & Chinese/Thai? My pet theory is these are product optimized for delivery in the US - pizza has changed so it's edible after 20 minutes - McDonalds burgers suck after 15 minutes. the frys are worse. they'll need to change their product & product mix to get big in delivery because even hammered that shit sucks. In order for eats to take over you need good delivery food and places need to make money on selling just the food.

  23. #7773
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    IS, you're a smart guy. You could manage a business. Something to think about.
    My life is the shawshank redemption, minus the redemption part.

  24. #7774
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    damn, that's a great post IS.

    question r.e. Uber Eats - what good delivery food in the US is there beyond Pizza & Chinese/Thai? My pet theory is these are product optimized for delivery in the US; burgers aren't. McDonalds burgers suck after 15 minutes. the frys are worse. Even hammered that shit sucks. In order for eats to take over you need good delivery food and places need to make money on selling just the food.
    Thx man, I tried to pm it to you awhile back but the pm system rejects your username.
    Word is you’re CJ. If so, I’m really glad you’re still “here” posting.

  25. #7775
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    Nov 2004
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    YetiMan
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    Lyft was a heartbreaker for me. If I could make $10/hr driving around barefoot listening to the dead and telling tourii how to enjoy their vacation here and slaying them with stories and jokes and shit...you know, that would have bought me a lot of reign to drop the worst shifts at my real job.

    Anyway, that don’t mean shit to all y’all’s stockz. Back to ur regularly scheduled Jim Cramering.

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