Is the stock market going to tank?

[byates1]

^yep

[jono]

Killing off all safeguards to save a couple bucks until some predictable black swan is one obvious possibility. But I'm old enough to remember how Twitter died, so I'm trying to prepare for something much faster and less truthful than the first time around.

Feels like physical assets might get a bump.

[summit]

Tarrifs, mercurial international policy, and goverment spending cuts could cause problems for the "deregulation make stocks go up"....?

I'm 95% invested, and 80% in major indexes/etfs/mfs.

[MultiVerse]

Despite all the ridicule it receives, it turns out number go up is a better guide for how to do things than the alternatives on the table

[J. Barron DeJong]

“J.P. Morgan econs on Trump’s latest are “increasingly concerned that the policy mix may tilt into an unintentionally far less business-friendly stance. The sustained 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico set to start this weekend is materially different than the tariff increases built into our baseline.” https://bsky.app/profile/michaelsder.../3lh4x2xv7xs2h

[jono]

People keep analyzing the idiocracy on fundamentals even though they know it's a meme government.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Leopard: I will eat your face - - - Bank analysts: Our baseline assumes no face-eating - - - Leopard: Chomp chomp chomp https://bsky.app/profile/pkrugman.bs.../3lh4z42vosk2i

[liv2ski]

The start of something bigger?

Stock futures tumbled Sunday night to kick off a new trading month as investors weighed new U.S. tariffs on goods from key trade partners and their potential impact on the economy and corporate profits.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 611 points, or 1.4%. S&P 500 futures dropped 1.9%, while Nasdaq-100 futures lost 2.4%

And this just in....



Hedge funds have bet billions of dollars against Donald Trump’s America amid fears of a market crash.

Data from Goldman Sachs show there has been a surge in “short” bets against US stocks, meaning traders will make money when they fall in value, in a sign of growing concerns about the market.

In January, investors have placed 10 times more bets on US stocks falling than equivalent bets that shares in leading American companies would rise, the investment bank said. It suggests many traders are sitting on huge profits from the chaos earlier this week, when shares in big tech stocks slumped following a panic over the success of rival Chinese AI DeepSeek.

The increase in short bets marks a major turnaround in sentiment from November, when hedge funds piled into long bets on US stocks, predicting they would rise.

Hedge funds ploughed billions into so-called “Trump trades” in the immediate wake of the US election in November, on expectations the new president’s tax cuts and tariff policies would boost America’s economy.

A surge in clients giving their money to the funds in the wake of Mr Trump’s victory helped lift the amount of money managed by the industry to all-time highs of over $4.5 trillion (£3.6 trillion).

Things that make me go hmmmm.

[4matic]

Emoji trouble.

Berkshire is thirty percent cash

[4matic]

Tarrifs, mercurial international policy, and goverment spending cuts could cause problems for the "deregulation make stocks go up"....?

I'm 95% invested, and 80% in major indexes/etfs/mfs.

Extending the tax cuts is not more tax cuts. Getting more will not be easy if at all.

[4matic]

TSLA and AAPL end of month shenanigans last week. That kind of volatility in AAPL is a warning.

[CascadeLuke]

I liked what David Rosenberg said in a recent interview. “I’m mostly in cash. Don’t need to be out there picking up nickels and dimes in front of a steamroller.”

[4matic]

NVDA had the largest retail inflow ever last week.

“Everyday traders bought more than six hundred million worth of Nvidia shares on balance Monday, according to data from Vanda Research that subtracts total outflows from inflows. That marked a record for daily net inflows into Nvidia as mom-and-pop investors bucked their institutional counterparts, who dumped the stock en masse.”

[4matic]

[emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]]I liked what David Rosenberg said in a recent interview. “I’m mostly in cash. Don’t need to be out there picking up nickels and dimes in front of a steamroller.”

Especially when you can earn 6 percent in a short duration managed bond fund.

[Tips^Up]

Where is the 6% short duration managed bond fund?

I've had short-term investments in VMRXX over the past year, presently at 4.3%.

[m2711c]

Yeah?

[4matic]

BINC. It also paid a sixty cent special div in December.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/binc/quote

Three year duration:

https://www.blackrock.com/us/individ...ome-active-etf

[4matic]

I like HYS too. It’s a Pimco short duration high yield fund that tracks an index but tries to weed out the dogs.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/hys/quote

[Kevo]

Total head fake on the trade war. What a joke.

It’s also ridiculous that the mexico tariff was cancelled while Canada’s tariff is still in play.

[summit]

Trump signed an EO for a sovereign wealth fund
Musk wants Treasury on the blockchain

[J. Barron DeJong]

Total head fake on the trade war. What a joke. It’s also ridiculous that the mexico tariff was cancelled while Canada’s tariff is still in play.

Just now in the Oval Office: Trump on what Trudeau could offer him to change his mind on tariffs: "What I'd like to see -- Canada become our 51st state."

[Name Redacted]

Apparently thats just because he spoke with the MX president first. Talking to Trudeau this afternoon. Maybe he will pause that one too. What a lame bluff affecting the global economy.

[4matic]

With a budget deficit where do funds for a wealth fund come from? More deficits? Higher rates?

[JimmyCarter]

matic;[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji640][emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji637]]With a budget deficit where do funds for a wealth fund come from? More deficits? Higher rates?

Who needs healthcare when we can own TikTok!?

At least it will be used for the public good and not a slush fund for the shit bird in chief and his bootlickers…Oh wait…

[406]

Trudeau should not pick up the phone, call the bluff.

Oh, and lol at an US sovereign wealth fund. Sell t-bills for 4.3% and invest it all in TSLA! What could go wrong?