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  1. #8251
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    Aug 2016
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    nothing more pathetic than a wannabe legitimizing corruption so he can join the club.

    just compare returns for the SOE to growth and it's clearly the Chinese numbers are bullshit. Yes, it's grown, hugely. That's not debateable. What is debateable is the quality of growth and the future prospects.
    Last edited by dunfree ; 09-05-2019 at 09:08 PM.

  2. #8252
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    The bigger the base, the higher in space.

  3. #8253
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    Aug 2004
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    WE now down around valuation of $12/$15B. And they are still trying to shove this through the pipeline.

    I guess if it gets pulled it will never get another shot at the public $ apple.

    Matt Levine made a good point about companies getting private money or public money. You donít get both. And SV and itís tech unicorns are learning that right now.

  4. #8254
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    Jan 2008
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    4,926
    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    WE now down around valuation of $12/$15B. And they are still trying to shove this through the pipeline.

    I guess if it gets pulled it will never get another shot at the public $ apple.

    Matt Levine made a good point about companies getting private money or public money. You donít get both. And SV and itís tech unicorns are learning that right now.
    Public investors are becoming more discerning about the types of shit they are willing to be fed. Must mean there's a market correction incoming.

  5. #8255
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    Portland, OR, U.S.A.
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    Can anyone explain to me what's going on in the bond market in basic terms. I know diddly squat about the bond market, but it sounds like things are getting worrisome and will eventually impact equities. It would be helpful to get an understanding of when and how equities might be impacted.

    Also, some folks I listen to say "the bond market is the best predictor of economic health" - agree or disagree and how does that apply to what's going on now?
    another Handsome Boy graduate

  6. #8256
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    Dec 2008
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    Had dinner with a finance PhD student a couple weeks ago:

    me "what do you think of negative-yielding bonds?"

    him "not a good investment!"

    me "it's a strange environment"

    him "yeah, a lot of people have been trying to figure out what normal is for a while now"

  7. #8257
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
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    2,307
    ^Yep. This on the debt / bond market.

    We are really in uncharted territory especially globally. Different countries are working in different ways to make things best for them.

    China pegs the yuan. Japan has had easing for almost 20 yrs and hasnít recovered due in part to several ongoing issues most recently aging population. USA has been easing for so long (by purchasing treasuries at different maturities) that investors are effectively forced to the equity markets for any return. There is a genuine fear that the US may end up in a long term morass much like japan since we have similar issues with aging baby boomers

    Inverted yield curves have always preceded recession because investors have lost faith in normal long term returns and want their money liquid. There is a joke though that inverted yield curves have predicted 13 of the last 5 recessions, and there is truth in that humor.


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  8. #8258
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    I read today that the GC and ZB repo rates went over 5% intraday. And that the oil thingy actually torqued one half of last week's value+/momentum- squeeze as many of the value short positions people have crowded into were oil stocks.

    edit to add: CRC as an example up 38% today after getting murdered the last several months.

  9. #8259
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Platinum Pete View Post
    Can anyone explain to me what's going on in the bond market in basic terms. I know diddly squat about the bond market, but it sounds like things are getting worrisome and will eventually impact equities. It would be helpful to get an understanding of when and how equities might be impacted.

    Also, some folks I listen to say "the bond market is the best predictor of economic health" - agree or disagree and how does that apply to what's going on now?
    Itís a 40 year downtrend in long term rates. Thatís a hard trend to break.

    I bought Treasury Bonds on Wednesday and Friday last week. 35% of assets. I am 95% long bonds now. I bought the other 60% last November.

    For now the whole position is a trade. My expectation is for more all time lows in the 10ís and 30ís and much lower yields in the shorter notes. Yes it is a very risky trade.

    The long term relationship between bonds and equity has been absolutely direct for the last 40 years. Lower rates>higher equity and that probably wonít change but if equity turns lower for longer that might also change.

    Can other factors affect one or the other? Sure. Absolutely.

    Trend growth is 2%. Imo we borrowed from trend growth with poorly directed fiscal stimulus and there will be a period of less than trend growth.

    Reaction to Fed this week, not what they do, is critical to my ďtradeĒ.

    I went longer duration because I think money rates are going to fall.

  10. #8260
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtnwriter View Post
    ^
    Inverted yield curves have always preceded recession because investors have lost faith in normal long term returns and want their money liquid. There is a joke though that inverted yield curves have predicted 13 of the last 5 recessions, and there is truth in that humor.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Iíve never heard that joke.

    Some history of yield inversion

    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...d-yield-curves

    Although. The curve has been flat for so long Iím not sure historical relationships are valid.

  11. #8261
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    So what does it all mean? Say, hypothetically, you are going to getting a large check this week from selling an investment property or something. Where do you put the money? We are talking nest egg, pay for college, ~30% of your net worth kind of money.

  12. #8262
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    Jul 2005
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    Not an RIA and just my personal opinion: keep it as cash for now as long as you wonít spend it. You wonít earn anything but thereís too many unknowns right now.


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  13. #8263
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtnwriter View Post
    Not an RIA and just my personal opinion: keep it as cash for now as long as you won’t spend it. You won’t earn anything but there’s too many unknowns right now.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Where would one park a ton of cash? MM? CDs? Savings?

  14. #8264
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtnwriter View Post
    Not an RIA and just my personal opinion: keep it as cash for now as long as you won’t spend it. You won’t earn anything but there’s too many unknowns right now.
    Normally I'd say index funds, but at the moment I'd say something safe that earns a little bit of interest.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin

  15. #8265
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    @mcsquared
    Money Market Fund gives you way better liquidity than a CD, low risk, and keeps up with inflation way better than a savings account.
    If you want a certified financial adviser, I can recommend a good trustworthy one in Denver.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  16. #8266
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    Quote Originally Posted by PassTheDutchie View Post
    Where would one park a ton of cash? MM? CDs? Savings?
    Vanguard MM is a bit over 2% (a little bit more than online savings accounts), some CDs are around 2.5-3.5%.

    On the "where to put it" concept and whether you would want to use index funds or stay in cash: depends on your needs (long term investment vs short term spending) and investment strategy. Otherwise you are just trying to time the market.
    Quote Originally Posted by powder11 View Post
    if you have to resort to taking advice from the nitwits on this forum, then you're doomed.

  17. #8267
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    Sounds like a bunch of people could use an actual financial adviser...

  18. #8268
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcsquared View Post
    So what does it all mean? Say, hypothetically, you are going to getting a large check this week from selling an investment property or something. Where do you put the money? We are talking nest egg, pay for college, ~30% of your net worth kind of money.
    My parents found a credit union that gave them 4% on up to $50k. Could be worth looking around.

  19. #8269
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    Quote Originally Posted by PassTheDutchie View Post
    Where would one park a ton of cash? MM? CDs? Savings?
    Bitcoin. Duh.

  20. #8270
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Bitcoin. Duh.
    Attachment 294310

  21. #8271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    See??

    I told you!


  22. #8272
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    The way to do it if you're the original questioner is to do something modest like 1-5% btc against 95-99% money market or similarly safe instrument.

  23. #8273
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    The way to do it if you're the original questioner is to do something modest like 1-5% btc against 95-99% money market or similarly safe instrument.
    Come on... FTS. Go all in.

  24. #8274
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    Jan 2008
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    I put a bunch of cash from selling my Condo in Dec into 2.5% FDIC insured CD's at my credit union. Only penalty for early withdraw is months interest. Had I put it in the S&P would be looking at >~$50k profit ytd....so clearly I don't know what I'm doing.

    I think the only thing preventing a major correction is everybody is expecting one.

    I always make sure to buy the max allowed amount of I-bonds for the year, big fan of those, thanks Al Gore. Can use tax free for kids University. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/seriesibond.asp

  25. #8275
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    2,307
    If itís for college Iíd put some into a tax beneficial 529 for each child to the max annual if you can. The rest, an FDIC insured instrument as mentioned above make sure you limit each to the max insured value.


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