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  1. #11526
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    2,491
    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    Probably a lot more people will drive instead of taking public transportation, worldwide.
    im skeptical of this because there just ain’t the space.

  2. #11527
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    3,474
    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    im skeptical of this because there just ain’t the space.
    A lot of people can't afford a car. And I'm guessing, 40 million unemployed will have problems paying bills for food and rent, let alone putting gas in the tank.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  3. #11528
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    funland
    Posts
    4,694
    Click image for larger version. 

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    brrrrrrrrrrrrr

  4. #11529
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    3,474
    ^^^^Irony? based on all the partying going on sans masks and social distancing, I gather people will be dying to get on planes real soon.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  5. #11530
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,878
    Covered LK. Started HTZ short via puts. Puts are nice and liquid.

    Added some CHK calls just in case this market gets frothy or a shooting war is started

  6. #11531
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    funland
    Posts
    4,694
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Covered LK. Started HTZ short via puts. Puts are nice and liquid.

    Added some CHK calls just in case this market gets frothy or a shooting war is started
    will the indexes go up or down if we get a shooting war??

  7. #11532
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,878
    Quote Originally Posted by Lone Star View Post
    will the indexes go up or down if we get a shooting war??
    Probably to the Moon. I've been a LMT long for 5 years so that'll print $


    Icahn just took it lubeless on HTZ exiting his position
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-...213205837.html

  8. #11533
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,428
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Icahn just took it lubeless on HTZ exiting his position
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-...213205837.html
    That ones probably in IEP

  9. #11534
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,878
    HTZ now has borrows. Buying puts, selling calls trying to construct short synthetically.

    Got bought in on CHK again. Will look at reestablishing position for July bond payments

  10. #11535
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,878
    HTZ position constructed. Spread of June puts and calls. OOTM 2.5c sold with a decent premium to keep avg cost of the puts down. Some July calls bought just in case HTZ miraculously goes to the moon

    Here's the buyers.

    And https://robintrack.net/symbol/HTZ

    HTZ NorAm declared Ch11. The assets (cars) are pledged as security so will be dumpster - sold. The international arms are seeking Ch11 equivalents. There is a ladder of debt but that's fairly standard. In order of priority bank, specific collateral, 2L, junior then last commons. It's unusual for commons (or calls) to retain so much value going into delist or Ch11.

    The Robinhood shareholdings may explain some of that
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    Last edited by LeeLau; 05-28-2020 at 02:08 PM.

  11. #11536
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    3,474
    Trump supposedly is going to be doing a presser tomorrow on China. Seems like Trump wants to poke the dragon again. Should be good times for the world's markets.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  12. #11537
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Beaverton, OR
    Posts
    377
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    Trump supposedly is going to be doing a presser tomorrow on China. Seems like Trump wants to poke the dragon again. Should be good times for the world's markets.
    I think you must of missed this news:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-h...ay-2020-05-28/

  13. #11538
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,762
    Yeah, anything but acknowledging just cruising by 100000 deaths. And counting.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  14. #11539
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    3,474
    Quote Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot View Post
    I think you must of missed this news:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-h...ay-2020-05-28/
    No, saw that. Trump has just been waving his tiny stick, and Friday he's going to probably come out with what "sanctions" are being imposed.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  15. #11540
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    4,889
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    No, saw that. Trump has just been waving his tiny dick, and Friday he's going to probably come out with what "sanctions" are being imposed.

    FYI
    Although I'm sure you meant to say that.

  16. #11541
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    South of 49
    Posts
    1,106
    Mobile oil tanks revenues are tanking.
    Rail earning and volumes way down.
    This is a good sign.

  17. #11542
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,762

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  18. #11543
    SPX 2020 earnings estimate in Jan/Feb $180. Current estimate is about $125.

    Pretty good lesson to be learned there in terms of market drivers (liquidity vs. earnings expectations). You can play the game and rely on wealth effect inducement from the FOMC et al. as your fundamental rationale for being long of stocks. Just understand it's that and has nothing to do with the rationale that led you to invest in the first place. My biggest mistake this past decade has been the under-appreciation of that wealth effect policy of targeting asset valuations via liquidity provision. It's an incredible sedative to keep the herd long. Leveraged loans are charging back to pre-COVID levels on the back of monetization of related ETFs, buying out credit misadventures with public purchasing power. The logical conclusion of what arguably started in the 80s with S&L crisis reaction.

  19. #11544
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Tahoe-ish
    Posts
    860
    I'm just a lurker here (and don't even invest), but I thought this article was fantastic. It really helped me to understand what's been going on lately. What Is the Stock Market Even for Anymore? https://nyti.ms/2yBgPgb

    Exerpt: "Now consider this: Yardeni Research reports that in 2019 alone, U.S. companies in the S&P 500 bought back $728.7 billion of their own stocks, which is equivalent to 3 percent of the country’s G.D.P. Not only that: According to Goldman Sachs, buybacks constituted the single-largest source of demand in the stock market, which was also the case in two of the previous three years. This was a period in which the stock market gained around 65 percent. To the extent that buybacks helped fuel the run-up, it suggests that the market was really just a hall of mirrors."

    Sent from my LG-US998 using TGR Forums mobile app
    ride bikes, climb, ski, travel, cook, work to fund former, repeat.

  20. #11545
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,428
    The fed has stepped in to do buybacks in lieu of companies albeit on the debt side.

  21. #11546
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,878
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    The fed has stepped in to do buybacks in lieu of companies albeit on the debt side.
    And without the benefits of equity or dividend participation! Isn't transfer of wealth great?

  22. #11547
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    218
    Quote Originally Posted by climberevan View Post
    I'm just a lurker here (and don't even invest), but I thought this article was fantastic. It really helped me to understand what's been going on lately. What Is the Stock Market Even for Anymore? https://nyti.ms/2yBgPgb

    Exerpt: "Now consider this: Yardeni Research reports that in 2019 alone, U.S. companies in the S&P 500 bought back $728.7 billion of their own stocks, which is equivalent to 3 percent of the country’s G.D.P. Not only that: According to Goldman Sachs, buybacks constituted the single-largest source of demand in the stock market, which was also the case in two of the previous three years. This was a period in which the stock market gained around 65 percent. To the extent that buybacks helped fuel the run-up, it suggests that the market was really just a hall of mirrors."

    Sent from my LG-US998 using TGR Forums mobile app
    Yes, it's money from the corporate tax cuts.
    90% of skiing is just looking cool

  23. #11548
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,878
    I have given in to the inexorable power of the Fed. Bought LK at 2.06 after covering my short about there. Selling covered calls against it.

    The call writers are aggressive. Getting 15% on the weeklies with just 5 days left prior to expiry. Just did this twice so far though

  24. #11549
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Where bankers' bankers breed
    Posts
    2,433
    I'm in the thick of the market on the banking research side and it really seems a bit surreal.
    All the years combine
    they melt into a dream

  25. #11550
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    3,283
    That NYT article was interesting.

    “Over 90 percent of the value of stocks is dependent on earnings more than a year in the future,’’ he said. ‘‘The market is very forward-looking.’’ Investors weren’t thinking six months ahead; they were thinking a year or two ahead, Siegel said, by which point the virus would probably have been brought under control.

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