Is the stock market going to tank?

**jono** · 06-01-2020, 08:13 PM

^^Unemployment makes a big cut into that, though.

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

we are in the shoeshine boy and taxi driver giving tips stage of market bubbling,

I lean this way, too, but another alternative is "don't fight the Fed." If the taxi driver and the shoeshine boy are the last money in, ok, but what if the Fed just keeps printing?

**billyk** · 06-01-2020, 08:37 PM

Originally Posted by m2711c

How much of this is being driven by the regular 401(k) and IRA contributions that every upper middle-class working stiff is paying on a regular basis?

I mean, they only get once a year to reallocate their assets and then they just deal with the shit that happens for the rest of the year, correct?

Isn’t that just pumping a shit load of money into the market every single month?

25% unemployment mean that 75% of the people are still working...

The 401K that I have allows you to rebalance more often than that, but you are right that 401Ks pump a LOT of money into the market.

**dunfree** · 06-01-2020, 08:56 PM

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

Attachment 330360

Hennepin Av in Minneapolis has looted stores and... a Federal Reserve Bank.

**LeeLau** · 06-01-2020, 09:34 PM

Originally Posted by jono

I lean this way, too, but another alternative is "don't fight the Fed." If the taxi driver and the shoeshine boy are the last money in, ok, but what if the Fed just keeps printing?

There's a substantial portion of belief in that motivating not just the institutional but also the retail crowd. And by and large, it's working

**Benny Profane** · 06-02-2020, 06:22 AM

-52.8%

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

**HD333** · 06-02-2020, 06:45 AM

Originally Posted by m2711c

How much of this is being driven by the regular 401(k) and IRA contributions that every upper middle-class working stiff is paying on a regular basis?

I mean, they only get once a year to reallocate their assets and then they just deal with the shit that happens for the rest of the year, correct?

...

If your 401k only allows you to rebalance once a year you should look into moving it to an IRA if you have a triggering event.

Most are daily, assuming you don’t draw attention from the fund companies for excessive trading.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

**jono** · 06-02-2020, 07:19 AM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

There's a substantial portion of belief in that motivating not just the institutional but also the retail crowd. And by and large, it's working

Right. And while it seems obviously dangerous as brothisweek noted, it's hard to guess when it ends. Given the current politicians I don't see anyone going out on a limb against kicking the can one more time and the longer that works the riskier it seems to be (politically) for anyone bucking the trend.

Anything besides gold seem like a good hedge these days?

**mcsquared** · 06-02-2020, 07:35 AM

Originally Posted by jono

Anything besides gold seem like a good hedge these days?

Bro, if this comes crashing down, everything comes down. Gold, BTC, Oil. Everything.....

**Timberridge** · 06-02-2020, 08:14 AM

I come here for advice and all I get is shit like this?^^

**Benny Profane** · 06-02-2020, 08:25 AM

Originally Posted by Timberridge

I come here for advice and all I get is shit like this?^^

Charlie says hold tight, for now.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-4-1029103102

**Toadman** · 06-02-2020, 08:51 AM

Must have been those Trump comments about mobilizing the military to put down and dominate the protesters that gave WS a woody this morning.

**LeeLau** · 06-02-2020, 09:53 AM

Originally Posted by jono

Right. And while it seems obviously dangerous as brothisweek noted, it's hard to guess when it ends. Given the current politicians I don't see anyone going out on a limb against kicking the can one more time and the longer that works the riskier it seems to be (politically) for anyone bucking the trend.

Anything besides gold seem like a good hedge these days?

I park cash in a mix of TIPs and the Canadian equivalent RRI. I used to use a USD/CHF and USD/JPY hedge when I worked professionally but it's expensive to monitor and tbh had doubtful effectiveness.

Here's an interesting idea for Timberridge and others who don't need to listen to brostoyevski brobonics

From CMCM Cheetah Mobile

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cheet...123000275.html

Paying out a $1.44 cash div.

"The cash dividend will be paid on July 9, 2020, to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 23, 2020. "

Bought cheap July 17 2er puts. At some point may buy the underlying ADR before June 23 to get the dividend exposure. Risk is that the company doesn't pay out the dividend but if it doesn't and I hold just the puts all I did was risk the value of the puts

**Kevo** · 06-02-2020, 09:53 AM

The market loves the idea of the US becoming a military dictatorship, apparently.

**dunfree** · 06-02-2020, 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by Kevo

The market loves the idea of the US becoming a military dictatorship, apparently.

the Nazis were good for German stocks. Until they weren’t.

**LeeLau** · 06-02-2020, 11:16 AM

Originally Posted by full-time philosopher bromo economicus

"you can buy this rock. It protects you from corruption & monetary dysfunction. It's destroying equities & fixed income on relevant timeframes"

financial professional: No! Check out this Chinese ADR with a sick dividend. Ignore the yuan devaluation in progress, political instability and utter lack of recourse.

lmfao

I fired people like you. I'd like to pretend it gave me great satisfaction but it didn't. It was forgotten in a blink of an eye

**LeeLau** · 06-02-2020, 11:27 AM

Originally Posted by full-time philosopher bromo economicus

The best trade of the century is fading people like you.

Happy rent seeking!

You misunderstand. I don't care. GLTA

**Timberridge** · 06-02-2020, 11:39 AM

You're both nuts.

I bought LIN at 160, should I sell now?

**El Chupacabra** · 06-02-2020, 11:54 AM

Originally Posted by full-time philosopher bromo economicus

It is strange that financial guys like you are so skilled, yet so inept. Arbing bips off dogshit while the world passes you by.

Not caring is highly unlikely.

**LeeLau** · 06-02-2020, 12:17 PM

LIN is a nice safe boring company paying out a decent yield. They supply H2 and chemicals to some clients so my exposure to them is as a customer. What's the alternative?

And yeah I know I shouldn't bicker with a yogababble bot but sometimes one cant resist

**Timberridge** · 06-02-2020, 12:35 PM

Ok.

It's had a nice run over the 2 months since, so I'm gonna sell 50%.

I'll lighten up a bit overall here and wait for the crash part deux all of you are waiting for. Too many people waiting for the next train though, so it may not ever come.

**406** · 06-02-2020, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by El Chupacabra

Now I need to listen to a FNM album.

I have bunch of 2.5% CDs ending in a few weeks, not sure what to do with that $.

I'm starting to think no second crash and fed just created massive inflation but protected the 1% by running up stocks.

**dschane** · 06-02-2020, 01:22 PM

I think the cruise line stocks exemplify the insanity of today's situation. They suffered huge losses, couldn't get any U.S. bailout $$$, announced they're each losing about $250M/month, Canada closed its ports to them through October, and the CDC currently has a no sail order through July 24th. Yet, their stocks are rising as if 1/1/2021 will likely, if not certainly, be better than 1/1/2020.

Yes, I'm aware that there are basically cruise addicts, but the numbers won't be close. You have to fly to a port (that will discourage some) and then you have to get on a cruise ship with 3000 - 5000 people who want to beat you to the buffet and on-tap soft serve ice cream before removing their dentures for the night (that will surprisingly deter less than the need to fly). But, however you slice it, any rational view says more likely than not, it will be years before 1/1/2020 numbers are back.

And if stock buybacks constituted the largest source of demand for stocks in the last few years, 401k holders who've been investing the whole time can't account for the diminished use of buybacks. Can the sport gambling Joes really make up for that loss in demand? Perhaps, I guess. So when sports return in some form, the market tanks? Every day, the news tries to explain why the market is up/down -- good news on some cure, the vaccine is now on the fast track (which isn't very fast) -- when it's not really explainable. And it may be "forward looking," but it's ridiculously optimistically forward looking then.

Until, as everyone notes, it isn't.

Anyway, it's kind of interesting. For the little it's worth, I pulled out of equities in 4/2019 and continue to watch from the sidelines.

**4matic** · 06-02-2020, 01:33 PM

TLT is near daily support testing a failed reverse H&S. I could see it back at 140. 10y at 1.25%. Especially if equities stay strong.

**4matic** · 06-02-2020, 01:39 PM

Originally Posted by dschane

I pulled out of equities in 4/2019 and continue to watch from the sidelines.

Buying this last dip was a grand slam home run. I fanned. I got it done hitting for average. I’m 98% stable value. 2% equity. I’d sure like to see the 30y back to 3%.

**LeeLau** · 06-02-2020, 02:02 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Buying this last dip was a grand slam home run. I fanned. I got it done hitting for average. I’m 98% stable value. 2% equity. I’d sure like to see the 30y back to 3%.

Yup me too. Gapered on buying "dumpster dives" which never really dumpstered.