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  1. #10151
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    I didn't let myself look at my entire portfolio for a long time. I finally took a look today and shifted some stuff around.

    Across my investment accounts, I'm now 50% equities, 39% bonds and 11% gold.

    I'm wanting to move to an allocation of-
    30% - Stocks
    15% - Intermediate-term bonds
    40% - Long-term bonds
    7.5% - Gold
    7.5% - Commodities

    The main issue I'm having is a lack of availability of treasury bond index funds/ETFs in my 401k. The closest we've got is VBTLX but that is exposed to corporate bonds, which I expect to tank in the not too distant future. My 401K is larger than my IRA/Roth IRA and brokerage account combined, so I won't be able to achieve the asset allocation I want even if I move my the entirety of my other accounts to mid term and long term T Bonds indices.
    You might like this guy's stuff.


  2. #10152
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    16,243

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    T Bonds indices.
    Brock used to talk about that; risk in duration bond funds. Heís right. Iím 98% cash because thereís just too much risk in duration. Downside risk just not worth it.

    If you have target funds maybe dig into the holdings a little deeper. Or perhaps a real asset fund that has tips and commodities.

    Iím with Stu sitting on the sideline. The risk reward just isnít there. 20% up or down seems reasonable for equity

    If I had to pick a long term equity it would probably be China FXI. 3.5% dividend. Near multi year lows, Higher yield on Currency, (RMB has been weak) and they havenít really used any stimulus yet. China stocks and bonds are getting added to MSCI indices regularly now which makes them investable for institutions.

    PFF was a good buy at $26. Kicking myself on that one.

  3. #10153
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Squaw valley
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    2,902
    Emerging markets are very cheap, us still expensive.

    I've been shorting the russel 2000 and buying turkey, Russia, Greece, Singapore, Malaysia, Poland, Eastern Europe, Italy, Spain

    Not all emerging, but all with cape ratio under 10.

    Still have 50 percent in less than 2 year treasuries.

    Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

  4. #10154
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    13,071
    Every time I read this thread I cannot keep myself from thinking that the grandma with the cash under the mattress or in coffee cans hidden about was on to something that just fails to resonate generation after generation.

  5. #10155
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    9,467

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark View Post
    Every time I read this thread I cannot keep myself from thinking that the grandma with the cash under the mattress or in coffee cans hidden about was on to something that just fails to resonate generation after generation.
    Iíll always hate the mkt. I think people in the USA are generally over sold stocks and not qualified to handle the risk. I meet a lot of seniors who were whip sawed and wiped out in 2008. Same probably now. Now, if you dollar cost average into the mkt your whole life, then fine. Or if you picked good stocks you like, fine. But the whole industry is geared to fuck the little guy. My best trading was always in stocks that went to zero, so Iím a bit negative. Have to be.

    Probably doesnít help bonds pay shit, but thatís only part of the same problem with us bailing out everyone with trillion dollar packages.

    Weíre scraping resin at this point.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  6. #10156
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    16,243
    In 2009-2010 300 banks went bankrupt. It was almost a daily event. I have to think retail and restaurants will have the same fate. When the dominoes start falling it will happen fast. They were already weak from getting Amazon'd

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...3present)#2008

  7. #10157
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    1,021
    The precious metal funds I owned started to go south this morning for some reason..so I sold.. Completely in cash now...
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  8. #10158
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    STL
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    In 2009-2010 300 banks went bankrupt. It was almost a daily event. I have to think retail and restaurants will have the same fate. When the dominoes start falling it will happen fast. They were already weak from getting Amazon'd

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...3present)#2008
    Four Seasons near me closed, laid off 300 people. No date to return.

    Some incredibly bad things happening.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  9. #10159
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    13,200
    Pretty much every restaurant and hotel in town is closed (big tourist town). Those guys are toast if this goes 2 months. We are going to see a bunch of Bk's and deaths from this.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  10. #10160
    25% GDP hit for two quarters is a 12.5% annual GDP drop, putting APAC/EU/AMER all in brown. 2009 was much better than that -->

    Click image for larger version. 

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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recession

  11. #10161
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    canada
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    i would imagine all tourism/travel related industries are toast for the rest of the year, entertainment (sports, shows, concerts), amusement parks, and movie theatre's. who's going to want to travel internationally anywhere this year, much less to the USA aka the global epicentre, or be in any kind of crowded space. hell, would nations even let their citizens travel to the US this summer? i would think at a minimum they would probably require a mandatory 14 day quarantine upon return, who's going to sign up for that? even restaurants and bars are going to take a huge prolonged hit. i probably do all of those things more than the average person, and on average spend 20+ days a year in the states as a tourist.. i've mentally written off the entire year as far as travel/entertainment.

    but who knows, this post may age very poorly.

  12. #10162
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    Quote Originally Posted by grapedrink View Post
    i would imagine all tourism/travel related industries are toast for the rest of the year, entertainment (sports, shows, concerts), amusement parks, and movie theatre's. who's going to want to travel internationally anywhere this year, much less to the USA aka the global epicentre, or be in any kind of crowded space. hell, would nations even let their citizens travel to the US this summer? i would think at a minimum they would probably require a mandatory 14 day quarantine upon return,
    And they should probably be subject to a 14-day quarantine upon *entering* - so no sightseeing for 14-days, then a 14-day quarantine when returning to the home country. I'd wager NOBODY is going to sign up for that.

  13. #10163
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
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    1,432
    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Pretty much every restaurant and hotel in town is closed (big tourist town). Those guys are toast if this goes 2 months. We are going to see a bunch of Bk's and deaths from this.
    NYT "Restaurant analysts and operators have been quoting an estimate that 75 percent of the independent restaurants that have been closed to protect Americans from the coronavirus won’t make it."

    That would just leave Blimpie's Subs in my town.

  14. #10164
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Eburg
    Posts
    13,315
    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Pretty much every restaurant and hotel in town is closed (big tourist town). Those guys are toast if this goes 2 months. We are going to see a bunch of Bk's and deaths from this.
    Oh yeah, good chance we're heading to all time high small biz BK filings. Some small biz LLCs and corps w/o principal personal guaranties will forego BK and just close their doors, but that opportunity will occur less than in the past because after 2008, nearly all creditors, suppliers and landlords have been routinely requiring personal guaranties. Many brick & mortar retail landlords will go down. Urban and small town landscapes will change. Amazon will increase market share. My semi-retirement plan was to avoid court appearances, but I got a feeling my future will include plenty o' appearances in BK court the next 3 years.

  15. #10165
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    canada
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    And they should probably be subject to a 14-day quarantine upon *entering* - so no sightseeing for 14-days, then a 14-day quarantine when returning to the home country. I'd wager NOBODY is going to sign up for that.
    i just assumed trump would be dumb enough to not make that a requirement

  16. #10166
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    The Queen City North Carolina
    Posts
    1,189
    Quote Originally Posted by grapedrink View Post
    i would imagine all tourism/travel related industries are toast for the rest of the year, entertainment (sports, shows, concerts), amusement parks, and movie theatre's. who's going to want to travel internationally anywhere this year, much less to the USA aka the global epicentre, or be in any kind of crowded space. hell, would nations even let their citizens travel to the US this summer? i would think at a minimum they would probably require a mandatory 14 day quarantine upon return, who's going to sign up for that? even restaurants and bars are going to take a huge prolonged hit. i probably do all of those things more than the average person, and on average spend 20+ days a year in the states as a tourist.. i've mentally written off the entire year as far as travel/entertainment.

    but who knows, this post may age very poorly.
    You're probably right because of the timing. My kids are out of school until a minimum of 5/15. I am not planning on a "summer vacation" just yet, because I have no idea if A) they will have to go back to school for some extended time into mid-june and B) Despite my job needing to travel, I am not exposing my family.
    We have already shelved two ski trips. I had a friend say that demand is gone and not able to come back because it's like a haircut. If i have to skip this month, I won't get two haircuts next month. The barber has lost that revenue forever.
    Now it's not quite that inelastic, but even if I go to SLC in july, I am not going to spend nearly the money to fish or hike as I would have skiing. So my dollars are gone.
    I suspect people may spend their money closer to home but would you wan't to rent an airbnb in a month or two?

  17. #10167
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    7,349
    I posted a few days ago about a symptomatic physician in my wife's group being tested last Saturday. Today is day seven and still no result. A physician, who could be seeing patients, cannot get a test result in a week.

  18. #10168
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Eburg
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mazderati View Post
    I posted a few days ago about a symptomatic physician in my wife's group being tested last Saturday. Today is day seven and still no result. A physician, who could be seeing patients, cannot get a test result in a week.
    That is fucked. HC workers in regular contact with patients should be the highest priority for testing.

  19. #10169
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    1,021
    Quote Originally Posted by Mazderati View Post
    I posted a few days ago about a symptomatic physician in my wife's group being tested last Saturday. Today is day seven and still no result. A physician, who could be seeing patients, cannot get a test result in a week.
    Don't forget..Trump is not responsible.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  20. #10170
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    Shit. Posted in wrong thread.

  21. #10171
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    Nov 2005
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    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
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    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    Don't forget..Trump is not responsible.
    The buck stops...anywhere but here.
    Forum Cross Pollinator

  22. #10172
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Nashville TN
    Posts
    704
    Quote Originally Posted by grapedrink View Post
    i just assumed trump would be dumb enough to not make that a requirement
    nah, he's smart when it comes to xenophobia. That's probably the one area where his self-assessment lines up with reality.

  23. #10173
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    Apr 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by the propagandist formerly monikered brostoyevski View Post
    You might like this guy's stuff.

    Watched the video and read his report. I like his stuff, but have no idea how to execute the long term volatility aspect of his portfolio. Sounds like that's a very active strategy that involves options trading up/down from current market positions at any given time.

    Please correct me if I'm wrong. I'd love to buy a mutual fund or ETF that accounts for the long vol portion of his dragon portfolio.

  24. #10174
    As far as I know you're right. There are volatility ETFs that can be really effective for short periods but the expense ratio likely erodes the benefit. He did reinforce the notion of a 20% gold position by saying it's a volatility hedge on its own. You could ask him directly though, there're many in similar positions.

  25. #10175
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by the propagandist formerly monikered brostoyevski View Post
    As far as I know you're right. There are volatility ETFs that can be really effective for short periods but the expense ratio likely erodes the benefit. He did reinforce the notion of a 20% gold position by saying it's a volatility hedge on its own. You could ask him directly though, there're many in similar positions.
    Here is what it says in his report-
    Name:  Screen Shot 2020-03-27 at 2.11.25 PM.png
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    I really wish those indices were available as ETFs. I can't find them with the research I've done so far.

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