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  1. #9901
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    534
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Bold, but the gears of Heloc approval may grind to very slow soon.
    Closed on it a few months ago. Yet to touch it, no plan to other than to be prepared to buy RE quickly w cash if market went south. Real estate/stocks, same thing....

  2. #9902
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    40,971
    Stocks. But, not now.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  3. #9903
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    27,206
    Hey, everybody, I know, let’s just print money!
    Forum Cross Pollinator

  4. #9904
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,194
    Dollar coming off is a good thing

  5. #9905
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    1,021
    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    Hey, everybody, I know, let’s just print money!
    The Fed definitely went all in.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  6. #9906
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    27,206
    Granted, desperate time call for desperate measures, I get that. But I can’t even imagine the deficit in ten years.
    Forum Cross Pollinator

  7. #9907
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    1,021
    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    Granted, desperate time call for desperate measures, I get that. But I can’t even imagine the deficit in ten years.
    When this is over the deficit will probably cause to dollar to do a 180 versus other currencies..
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  8. #9908
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    5,668
    That is assuming other countries are doing better than we are, which, well, I kinda doubt that. The entire euro zone is doing worse with the outbreak than we are, with countries like Italy and Spain with unemployment levels over 10% pre-corona (20+% youth unemployment also) they are going to get creamed.
    Live Free or Die

  9. #9909
    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    When this is over the deficit will probably cause to dollar to do a 180 versus other currencies..
    No, other currencies fail, then dollar fails. TRY, BRL, JPY, EUR, GBP already moving in this direction. Dollar flight is not purely an expression of confidence/reserve currency flight. Much of it is a shortage of dollars globally (to service debt, balance current account), a persistent issue since Bretton Woods & the fall of the GBP.

  10. #9910
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    40,971
    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    When this is over the deficit will probably cause to dollar to do a 180 versus other currencies..
    Which currencies? This is a worldwide pandemic.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  11. #9911
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,194

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    China hasnt even started new major stimulus and is already getting back to production. That combined with trillions in USD reserve and a favorable interest spread makes EM look interesting. China will invest in local markets through belt and road to dominate the region. Bullish RMB and EM debt:



    The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, or B&R) is a global development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 involving infrastructure development and investments in nearly 70 countries and international organizations in Asia, Europe, and Africa.

  12. #9912
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    2,359
    B&R?

  13. #9913
    4matic - how heavily invested in Chinese securities are you? As I understand it you'r 75% USD with some US bonds.

  14. #9914
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,194

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by the artist formerly known as brostoyevski View Post
    4matic - how heavily invested in Chinese securities are you? As I understand it you'r 75% USD with some US bonds.
    Zero. Considering move to 98% cash today with Fed providing liquidity. Im long dollar in domestic money market but not directly vs other currency.

    I have owned EMB in the past and it made a good low last week. Yields 5.9% and EM currency is weak so there is a potential kicker.

    The conundrum I have is that I dont need extra risk to meet my long term goals. Capital preservation is more important than alpha for me. With the USD long term risk free rate at 1% cash has little downside for my glide path.

  15. #9915
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    2,547
    Money printer go Brrr.

    https://brrr.money/

    Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

  16. #9916
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,194
    Fed buying Corp debt etfs. LQD and so forth. We are Japan.

  17. #9917
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Sydney/Avon
    Posts
    541
    Great analysis from Lyn Alden covering monetary policy, oil collapse, bullion demand, and liquidity problems

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...exters-pyramid

  18. #9918
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    284
    Toilet paper shortages solved. Unlimited QE means USD will soon be worthless so you can start wiping with those $100s

  19. #9919
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    the ham
    Posts
    7,512
    Insiders buying the bailout already. DOW, XOM, DELL, SBGI (no surprise there)

  20. #9920
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,194
    Quote Originally Posted by MCS5280 View Post
    Toilet paper shortages solved. Unlimited QE means USD will soon be worthless so you can start wiping with those $100s
    Dollar is at decades high right now.

  21. #9921
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    2,547
    Yeah, MCS5280 was a bit early. USD deflation first, then hyperinflation.

    Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

  22. #9922
    ^^Lyn Alden is sharp, like her work.

    Every dollar the Fed prints to monetize Federal or Private debt is capital shielded from creative destruction. As that's where new ideas & productivity come from, perpetual monetization means the new economy will be one of stasis, wealth/incomes frozen in time to avoid the fear of volatility needed to reorganize. Rather than pay for the cost of failed bets on credit, the wealthy get a free pass on the back of society's forward productivity (USD). Corporatism = corporate socialism.

    Schumpeter

    "that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one. This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism. p83 of Cap, Soc, Dem

    The problem that is usually being visualized is how capitalism administers existing structures, whereas the relevant problem is how it creates and destroys them.

  23. #9923
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The Mayonnaisium
    Posts
    7,344
    Bought BRK and XOM.

  24. #9924
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Sydney/Avon
    Posts
    541
    Quote Originally Posted by the artist formerly known as brostoyevski View Post
    ^^Lyn Alden is sharp, like her work.
    Think i actually started following her when you had posted a link or two way back in the BTC thread. Easier to read/process for non-technical types like me.

  25. #9925
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    548
    I bailed today. Lost about 25% overall, 40% in my bank stock, the 45% of my portfolio moved to bonds last fall saved me even more heartburn. Moved a sizeable amount to cash (45%), left the 45% in Bonds; the remaining 10% spead out amongst the bank stock and others so I keep and eye for future movement.

    I'm thinking it will be 60 days before we see small business back up and running, that will be my indicator.

    BTW - 10yrs or less from retirement

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