Is the stock market going to tank?

[Benny Profane]

https://marker.medium.com/robert-shi...f-f157eceb4c7d

[rideit]

Blowoff Top, anyone?

https://www.marketwatch.com/

[4matic]

Cannabis stocks look like bankruptcy. Legalization has taken the mystery out of it and demand just not there. Will it become a small boutique industry?

[Ted Striker]

When WA legalized, stores popped up on every corner in this town. A year later many of them were struggling to stay open. Now half of them are gone, and the successful ones have diversified their product lines to include non-cannabis products.

[4matic]

Big concern is price compression. Legal price per gram has been halved in one year.

[Kinnikinnick]

Here’s a stock related question.

Guy I’m related to worked for a corporation and built up some sizable stock options/grants. Gets laid off and ends up with a bunch of stock. I told him to sell half that shit right there but boneheaded didn’t and stock went down quite a bit. So his basis is a lot higher than current price so if he sells now he has tens of thousands of loss which would take years to write off on tax deductions so he bitches if I tell him to sell half.

WWMD if you were this guy?


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[Harry]

WWMD if you were this guy?

Cash out, buy a 72 Eldorado with tire chains, and move to a ski town.


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[Benny Profane]

The ghosts of Arthur Anderson and Enron stir.

https://thedig.substack.com/p/wework...dnt-warn-about

[4matic]

Saudi Aramco is valued at $1.9T. All the oil and gas companies listed in the USA are worth about $1.1T. XOM, CHV, all of them.

I think the risk is how will SA respond to lower profitability and consumption? Will they eventually abandon OPEC to take more market share?

[xyz]

When WA legalized, stores popped up on every corner in this town. A year later many of them were struggling to stay open. Now half of them are gone, and the successful ones have diversified their product lines to include non-cannabis products.

I remember back in 2015 in WA at a Mexican restaurant. While waiting in line to pay my bill this super super stoned dude asked me if a wanted a few garbage bags of weed, for free. He grew way more than he could sell or some shit and just wanted it gone. I was headed back to border so I thought it’d be best if turned down his offer. I recall thinking legal weed doesn’t have much a chance...He couldn’t give it away.

[JimmyCarter]

Nobody seems to believe Lockheed about the whole fusion thing, but they did have a key patent issued last year and the Skunk Works has had some notable successes in the past. If they get it to work it will be the most valuable company on the planet, seems like it might be worth buying a few shares on a flyer.

So ice inspired me to take a run on LMT at the beginning of the year and it's +43% and rising.

I owe you a beer or two. You just may need to collect before Iran blows us all up.

[4matic]

I think Short amazon looks interesting. The blue van army is not going to end well. FedEx is struggling for a similar reason.

I have a 30 day old order for mouthwash that still hasn’t been delivered. I get offered a refund tomorrow

“We’re very sorry your delivery is late. If you have not received your package by today, you can come back here the next day for a refund or replacement.”




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[byates1]

I love this thread.

[406]

I would only think amazon will take a big drop if they get hit in the cloud computing...not like they are making much money with retail.

Good call on LMT, I have been thinking about buying some BA if it drops a little more. Both are well positioned for the Space Farce. Figure BA will get the 737 fixed soon enough.

[4matic]

Markets are underpricing wage inflation at the low end affecting consumer profits.

[Toadman]

But are they overpricing the phase 1 China trade deal signing on January 15th? DOW 30k next Wed?

[rideit]

From the highest highs, to...

[4matic]

I just think the P in PE gonna disappoint this year and multiple is already high. This theme is why I picked AMZN short. Costs going to rise more than expected. Stop at new highs and adjust with time.

[dunfree]

I think Short amazon looks interesting. The blue van army is not going to end well. FedEx is struggling for a similar reason.

I have a 30 day old order for mouthwash that still hasn’t been delivered. I get offered a refund tomorrow

“We’re very sorry your delivery is late. If you have not received your package by today, you can come back here the next day for a refund or replacement.”




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Amazon is at the bleeding edge of fuck you deal, retail culture. I don’t think that’s going to disappear until the economy tanks, and maybe not even then

[Steve Lavigne]

I think Short amazon looks interesting. The blue van army is not going to end well. FedEx is struggling for a similar reason.

AMZN keeps banging its head on $2000 for the last year and a half. One of these quarters they are going to exceed their revenue numbers significantly and AMZN will blow through that $2000 number. Do you want to bet against that happening at the end of this month?

[4matic]

AMZN keeps banging its head on $2000 for the last year and a half. One of these quarters they are going to exceed their revenue numbers significantly and AMZN will blow through that $2000 number. Do you want to bet against that happening at the end of this month?

Never sell a triple top because there's no such thing? Sure.

I would be nervous ahead of earnings if it were closer to an all time high but for right now i still like the risk reward on the trade. We'll see when we get closer to earnings. The low on 1/5 was $1880 so let's use that as timestamp for the short. It's $1883 today with stop at new highs. (New highs is a poor place for a stop but for this hypothetical it's fine)

When the 20k blue vans have to start meeting safety requirements and regulation like Uber faces, especially in California, costs and scrutiny are going to rise more than anticipated. Amazon can't just wash their hands completely while continuing to union bust. I think it is good for FDX to get control of what they do best and step away from competing for last mile. Otoh, if a company is going to be rewarded for growing revenue in high margin businesses like cloud I'd go with GOOG or MSFT.

[4matic]

Amazon is at the bleeding edge of fuck you deal, retail culture. I don’t think that’s going to disappear until the economy tanks, and maybe not even then

I'm talking stocks, not the business, it was the same with TSLA the other way. AMZN was $1600 less than a year ago and has underperformed the indexes and sector. A 50% correction of that move is $1750 which is an even money trade vs new high regardless of what the business does. IF the news fits my narrative and costs rise a test of $1600 is easy.

[4matic]

The music will keep playing until the Fed drops the other shoe

For the indexes, probably. APPL could go to $500 no problem. MSFT to $200. I wouldn't short either of those.

[Benny Profane]

Yeah, you're good until November.

[Stu Gotz]

I have no idea what will end this, but we’re 12 years into one of the greatest rallies in history and stocks are still ripping higher? I’m sorry, but this is some bad juju.