Is the stock market going to tank?

[kokomas]

2% mortgage baby, hit me!

Waiting for that too but wholesale and retail spreads widening going to prevent that for a while

[rideit]

Of course, but here’s to hoping.
Maybe some negative rates, where we get paid 2% to borrow money?
After all, that’s what Trump essentially wanted.

[rideit]

Ahhhh...limits.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rout-...221631295.html

[Brock Landers]

That would be based on how long a virus inspired slowdown happens. But the jobs report Friday reported strong numbers and 3% wage growth yoy. So before the virus, not a concern and coming off a solid base so any road to deflation wouldn’t exactly have a head start. But say...3-4 months of continued quarantining, bets are off

Artificially inspired low oil prices wouldn’t really lead to deflation. Bankruptcies in shale operators when hedges roll off or debt servicing comes due in higher cost basins, could be many months out. And a lot of those companies either went under or were bought or whatever in 2016. Oil service companies will get absolutely whacked, there may be difficulties there as e+p reduces capex. Which is a certainty.

[Brock Landers]

Id agree, but I think that the timeframe for shale is even a little longer than virus-inspired long term impacts to asset prices and the economy in general.

[mcsquared]

Back in September, my in laws who are your typical devout Christians who for some strange reason think Trump is the new Jesus were visiting. I had just put one of my investment properties on the market. My FIL asked me "Why are you selling now?". I flat out told him that I don't think Trump is equipped to handle anything and this Bull run we were in was going to end badly. He literally rolled his eyes at me when I said I was going to take the profits and invest in long term treasuries. I hope he remembers that conversation.

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[Benny Profane]

I seem to recall that I asked about deflation earlier in this thread. Seems to be more of a probability now.

No, I'm thinking inflation, of things we can't get anymore.

[rideit]

Anyone think we might see a rally of sorts tomorrow from bottom-feeding buyers?

[iceman]

I'm expecting carnage. So you're probably right.

[4matic]

Averaging down often works...

Yeah. Depends on your time frame and leverage.

[huckbucket]

Note that S Korea are reporting a decline in new cases for the fourth straight day (518➡️483➡️367➡️248). They are conservatively 3 weeks into this and have used aggressive quarantines and testing. China is showing a similar pattern one month in. The US won't fare so well because we were caught flat footed, but the S Korean experience suggests that we won't see massive, long term issues that we all fear.

[Cono Este]

There are some folks who are going to get tapped out by the margin clerks this week.

And that’s when it gets interesting.

Trump gap filled?

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[Cono Este]

Dec, 2018. We hit 2467 in the SPU.

I’ll be a monkeys uncle if we don’t hit that this month.




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[Toadman]

Damn, Asian markets took a big hit on Monday. Sounds like the Euro markets will also take a beating, which means USA markets are going to get a big old fashioned butt whooping.

Who will Trump blame for the carnage?

[4matic]

Low rates and low oil prices help the 50% that don’t own stock. This will be mostly a financial event.

[4matic]

30y @.97%

[Kevo]

Low rates and low oil prices help the 50% that don’t own stock. This will be mostly a financial event.

Not when mandatory quarantines go into effect and retail, hospitality, education and transportation workers stop earning paychecks.

[Deebased]

Lots of crazy talk going on. People panic buying purell, canceling trips.

Imagine, just imagine the hit this economy will take if in 4 weeks we still have a growing problem.

If the containers from China stop moving?




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They have stopped moving. Last ones in the water unload in the first two weeks of April.

Meanwhile production in china is not resuming.


Strike China from the supply chain for the next quarter....

[Micol]

HF

[Meathelmet]

Boom.

European exchanges are taking a beating.

Trump is sweating. Drop of oil prices can annihilate shale industry states, the core (economy) of his supporters.
Byebye elections.

[kokomas]

Boom.

European exchanges are taking a beating.

Trump is sweating. Drop of oil prices can annihilate shale industry states, the core (economy) of his supporters.
Byebye elections.

Yeah, Putin not acting like Trump's friend, interesting

[schuss]

Yeah, Putin not acting like Trump's friend, interesting

Putin just wants to year down anyone he perceives as doing better than Russia. Trump is a useful idiot on that mission.

[huckbucket]

So what are we buying today?

[Marshall Tucker]

Interesting times. Circut breaker by 10 EST?

[Cono Este]

So what are we buying today?

Patience


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