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  1. #8251
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    Mar 2006
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    Nasdaq down 10% in 4 trading days

  2. #8252
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    A 50% drawdown requires 100% rally to break even.
    You're really good at math.

  3. #8253
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    Oct 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    Benny.

    But will you be alive to see it?

    Respectfully.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    It already happened. For fucks sake, does anybody have any money here?

    Besides, a pure equity only trade dropped that much. Go to Vanguard or Fidelity and check out their charts for mixed funds since then. Hardly as wild as that. Mine did great, but, I'm keeping that one to myself.

    The only people who really got hurt chucked it all over the side in late 08 and went to cash out of fear, and sat there for a long time. Dumb.

  4. #8254
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    You're really good at math.
    Well, when you throw out bullshit like gains from a bear market low you have to make sure it's in context.

  5. #8255
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    Mar 2006
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    It already happened. For fucks sake, does anybody have any money here?

    Besides, a pure equity only trade dropped that much. Go to Vanguard or Fidelity and check out their charts for mixed funds since then. Hardly as wild as that. Mine did great, but, I'm keeping that one to myself.

    The only people who really got hurt chucked it all over the side in late 08 and went to cash out of fear, and sat there for a long time. Dumb.
    So you're riding it down then? Good luck

    “Secret fund”. Lmfao

  6. #8256
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,887
    S&P futures just tagged 3121 and 10s are bouncing around new all-time lows (1.307 at lowest so far today and 1.314% currently. Previous all-time low at 1.321% after Brexit in 2016).

    My market focus is on mortgage rates, so this is a PSA: although rates are as low as they've been since 2012, they haven't fallen nearly as fast as Treasury yields, and they never will at times like this (unless we're talking about a QE3 type event where the Fed specifically targeted asset purchases on MBS and NOT Treasuries). But safe to say: when the global financial market is in full flight-to-safety mode, mortgage rates get shafted at first (relative to Treasuries, which so many people seem to think are the basis for mortgages).

    Can explain "why" in more detail if anyone's still awake, but long story short, when mortgage investors get their money back sooner than they expected (due to falling rates and refis), the underlying mortgages become less valuable relative to other fixed-income investments. That doesn't mean mortgage rates don't move lower, only that they move lower at a snail's pace at times, even when the 10yr is plummeting to all-time lows.

    (p.s. super double secret insane busy mode this week so I'm not subbing to this thread just yet, but figured I'd chime in for whatever reason. Feel free to PM if you have an urgent follow-up question or if you want to argue).

  7. #8257
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    /\Mortgage rates are not as low because short rates are not as low. It's that simple.

  8. #8258
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    So you're riding it down then? Good luck

    “Secret fund”. Lmfao
    The fuck I'd tell you, day trading genius. My bet is you barely have anything in the market. All hat, no horse.

  9. #8259
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    The fuck I'd tell you, day trading genius. My bet is you barely have anything in the market. All hat, no horse.
    100% bonds since November 2018 and documented here. I don't need risk anymore. 3% a year and I'm good. If you've been reading this thread you can see my opinion for much lower rates is consistentl.

    Speaking of which, bond funds were off their highs when stocks were making their lows today. Downside could be about over short term.

  10. #8260
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    Nov 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    /\Mortgage rates are not as low because short rates are not as low. It's that simple.
    No, it's really not that simple at all. Same issues existed even when short term rates were lower than 10s, etc (which is most commonly the case anyway).

  11. #8261
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattig View Post
    No, it's really not that simple at all. Same issues existed even when short term rates were lower than 10s, etc (which is most commonly the case anyway).
    What's missing other than short term rates at zero? 30 year rate is barely off its all time low. I agree that there is a minimum administrative rate.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh

  12. #8262
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    All hat, no horse.
    I'll show you my brokerage balance if you show yours? deal?

  13. #8263
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    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    Investment account dickwaving?


  14. #8264
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Investment account dickwaving?
    Nope. Benny called me out. I've NEVER talked dollar amounts here. Only percentage of portfolio and allocation. I take it back. Benny will just make something up.

  15. #8265
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    Biggest two day percentage decline since 2008

  16. #8266
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Nope. Benny called me out. I've NEVER talked dollar amounts here. Only percentage of portfolio and allocation. I take it back. Benny will just make something up.
    Right.

    Dickwaving.

    NTTAWWT.


  17. #8267
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    Mar 2006
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    I sold some bonds. Just 1% to raise cash.

  18. #8268
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    Quote Originally Posted by medjool View Post
    Gamma exposure for MMs is now negative so volatility should start to pick up from here.
    Vol already at one year high.

  19. #8269
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    Name:  chickenlittle-e1322754718668.jpg
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  20. #8270
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    Maybe this Black Swan will stab Trump right in the heart, and we as a nation can rejoice. (I know, take it to polyass)
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  21. #8271
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    I want to see a chart of the activity of this thread with market volatility. One of you nerds could do that for sure. I expect a strikingly inverse relationship.

  22. #8272
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    It’s like fresh powder

  23. #8273
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcove View Post
    I want to see a chart of the activity of this thread with market volatility. One of you nerds could do that for sure. I expect a strikingly inverse relationship.
    Yep, my strategy is go 100% VXX when this thread moves to the top of the Padded Room. Book coming soon.

    --Retired Dentist

  24. #8274
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    Dec 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    Maybe this Black Swan will stab Trump right in the heart, and we as a nation can rejoice. (I know, take it to polyass)
    Far, far from a black swan event.

    Real selling. More to come.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  25. #8275
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    A swan can be any number of sizes, it’s the surprise.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

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