Is the stock market going to tank?

**jono** · 12-25-2018, 07:33 AM

About 1 quarter from when the market was going to go up until inflation showed up. It's easy to say Twitter trade wars are different now, but are they really?

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2018, 07:45 AM

https://mobile.twitter.com/5thrule/s...-12-25-18.html

**4matic** · 12-25-2018, 09:32 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

You know, here we go again. A common refrain from dumbass retired folk is, boo hoo, I "lost" all my retirement savings in 08 when the market crashed. No you didn't . You followed this stupid advice. You sold when you were down, just like you probably bought when the market was high. It was your own damn fault. The market was/is up since then, what, double? Triple? The only people who "lose" money have margin calls and /or placed their futures bets wrong. Just chill. Shit happens.

What’s your mix? No threshold for capital preservation?

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2018, 09:34 AM

50/50, but concentrated in high dividend stocks. Easy.

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2018, 10:52 AM

Originally Posted by Bromontane

US is king for the century.

Highly doubtful the way things are going now. My bet is on China. Trump and Brexit are accelerating the demise of the west.

**Micol** · 12-25-2018, 10:59 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

In the bigger picture that is a perfectly normal correction.

A 50% correction of the entire move up from 666 move is 1650. Interesting that this intersects at the breakout from the double top.

A 50% correction of the entire move up from the double top at 1575 is 2150. Not unusual.

Between 1650 and 2200 is decent value technically.

Interesting that the 33% off the entire move almost directly intersects with 50% off the double top. So you have a confluence of fib numbers around 2150.

man, i dont know wabt all this means ,but sounds good, i’ll take three

**liv2ski** · 12-25-2018, 11:26 AM

Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

That piece of shit had plenty of support from all the big lobbies who wanted that tax bill slammed through and signed. Many of them are still protecting 45 and accessories to the treason happening right before our eyes for fear of losing everything they gained the past year including two US Supreme Court justices if it comes out that 45 and his shadow wasn't actually fairly elected. Now they're shitting bricks at the prospect of President Pelosi and the markets are reflecting that anxiety.

Wait...what? Damn, and I thought I was talking some crazy stuff yesterday. You hung over too?

**SumJongGuy** · 12-25-2018, 11:42 AM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Wait...what? Damn, and I thought I was talking some crazy stuff yesterday. You hung over too?

Pretty seriously thinking Mueller's also got Pence going down. That leaves Speaker of the House President Pelosi when it goes down.

**SumJongGuy** · 12-25-2018, 11:44 AM

Originally Posted by Bromontane

It'll probably be that way until Bezos' AI-child destroys humanity.

I left the door open and our new ROOMba escaped. That's how SkyNet got started.

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2018, 12:22 PM

Originally Posted by Bromontane

China lacks the population growth (one child), faces harsh regional competition (constrained by Russia, Japan, Phillipines, Taiwan, India, Iran), a rapidly appreciating workforce (labor costs up 600% last few decades, now >Mexican), overdependence on exports whose safety is ensured by Americans, a host of domestic conflicts, and terrible geographic hurdles. As well as a zombie economy. The US is re-industrializing right now with best-in-world natural barriers, ports, inland shipping, allies next door, a competent and sophisticated workforce, the best navy with no local threats to prevent its deployment, etc. It's not an accident or a hiccup that the US is a magnet for international talent & commerce. It'll probably be that way until Bezos' AI-child destroys humanity.

Really? China is a "zombie economy"? What the fuck. They have their issues, sure, but, a shitload of momentum. They're number two and soon to be one, if Trump keeps his shit flowing. And Russia is "constraining" China? How? Russia is at best a third world oligarchy dependent upon one resource, which, when the value of that commodity tanks, they're pretty much nothing. Ditto for the Philippines and, wtf?, Iran. What are you talking about? I'll give you Taiwan and India, although India has severe pollution and infrastructure issues, overpopulation, corruption, and Modi just screwed up there monetary system for years. Japan is facing the same demographic issues that you say China is, although they have a big head start on the rest of the world as far as their population dying off, and they compound it with their xenophobia by not allowing any immigration and severely discriminating against any non Japanese, including well healed and educated westerners. They're doomed to being China's bitch in this century, unless we come to rescue them. Even then......

Now, you say "The US is re-industrializing right now with best-in-world natural barriers, ports, inland shipping, allies next door, a competent and sophisticated workforce", which is something. Our infrastructure is crumbling, with no real hope in sight after the trillions dollar deficit tax bill was just passed. We're broke, and will be really broke pretty soon, with no political will to spend enough to bring us into the twenty first century, infrastructure wise. Fuck, that tunnel that is desperately needed between Jersey and NY to keep the Acela corridor and freight running in the northeast still isn't funded (thanks, fat ass Christie. You should rot in hell with no twinkie supply for that one), and may never be, while the only tunnel is on life support after Sandy and will have to be closed soon. Pathetic. Our roads and highways and bridges are crumbling, so I don't know why you're so optimistic about our "inland shipping" state of affairs. And, really, "allies next door"??? Do you read the papers? The Mexicans despise us because of Trump. He's totally pissed off the Canadians. The Canadians! Shit, they're almost American, and they've sent their boys off to die in our stupid wars. How"s that working out right now? As far as "a competent and sophisticated workforce", I really don't think so. That is what happens when you defund public education, and make it impossible to get a higher education unless you're rich or go into lifelong servitude to the financial system. That is not going to get any better with what Devos is doing, probably a LOT worse.
Where is this re-industrializing you speak of? And how many are being employed? You're not falling for that fantasy that America will be back to the fifties, when millions grabbed the lunchpail and punched in to a middle class one family earning job? Ain't happening. Sure, some factories are opening, but, they're filled with robots, and they'll be filled with more robots as that tech matures. And if the mood swings, it will be pretty easy to relocate to Mexico or some other cheaper country when the numbers work, assuring minimal wage gains. Don't forget that containerized shipping is a recent technology that has changed the world economy drastically, and they're starting to even turn those big beasts into robots, too.

**Bunion 2020** · 12-25-2018, 12:29 PM

Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

I left the door open and our new ROOMba escaped. That's how SkyNet got started.

Now that was funny................. Kudos.

**El Chupacabra** · 12-25-2018, 12:35 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Really? China is a "zombie economy"? What the fuck. They have their issues, sure, but, a shitload of momentum. They're number two and soon to be one, if Trump keeps his shit flowing. And Russia is "constraining" China? How? Russia is at best a third world oligarchy dependent upon one resource, which, when the value of that commodity tanks, they're pretty much nothing. Ditto for the Philippines and, wtf?, Iran. What are you talking about? I'll give you Taiwan and India, although India has severe pollution and infrastructure issues, overpopulation, corruption, and Modi just screwed up there monetary system for years. Japan is facing the same demographic issues that you say China is, although they have a big head start on the rest of the world as far as their population dying off, and they compound it with their xenophobia by not allowing any immigration and severely discriminating against any non Japanese, including well healed and educated westerners. They're doomed to being China's bitch in this century, unless we come to rescue them. Even then......

Now, you say "The US is re-industrializing right now with best-in-world natural barriers, ports, inland shipping, allies next door, a competent and sophisticated workforce", which is something. Our infrastructure is crumbling, with no real hope in sight after the trillions dollar deficit tax bill was just passed. We're broke, and will be really broke pretty soon, with no political will to spend enough to bring us into the twenty first century, infrastructure wise. Fuck, that tunnel that is desperately needed between Jersey and NY to keep the Acela corridor and freight running in the northeast still isn't funded (thanks, fat ass Christie. You should rot in hell with no twinkie supply for that one), and may never be, while the only tunnel is on life support after Sandy and will have to be closed soon. Pathetic. Our roads and highways and bridges are crumbling, so I don't know why you're so optimistic about our "inland shipping" state of affairs. And, really, "allies next door"??? Do you read the papers? The Mexicans despise us because of Trump. He's totally pissed off the Canadians. The Canadians! Shit, they're almost American, and they've sent their boys off to die in our stupid wars. How"s that working out right now? As far as "a competent and sophisticated workforce", I really don't think so. That is what happens when you defund public education, and make it impossible to get a higher education unless you're rich or go into lifelong servitude to the financial system. That is not going to get any better with what Devos is doing, probably a LOT worse.
Where is this re-industrializing you speak of? And how many are being employed? You're not falling for that fantasy that America will be back to the fifties, when millions grabbed the lunchpail and punched in to a middle class one family earning job? Ain't happening. Sure, some factories are opening, but, they're filled with robots, and they'll be filled with more robots as that tech matures. And if the mood swings, it will be pretty easy to relocate to Mexico or some other cheaper country when the numbers work, assuring minimal wage gains. Don't forget that containerized shipping is a recent technology that has changed the world economy drastically, and they're starting to even turn those big beasts into robots, too.

And a very Merry Christmas to you as well!

**dunfree** · 12-25-2018, 12:36 PM

China's a magnet for bullshit "experts". This poster included.

**jono** · 12-25-2018, 12:49 PM

Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

Pretty seriously thinking Mueller's also got Pence going down. That leaves Speaker of the House President Pelosi when it goes down.

I know they're more educated and paying closer attention as a general rule, but if you're going to start taking your US history and constitution lessons from over-interested Canadians you should go whole hog: step back from the keyboard and just learn whatever you can. No need to post about it.

**Cono Este** · 12-25-2018, 02:34 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

You know, here we go again. A common refrain from dumbass retired folk is, boo hoo, I "lost" all my retirement savings in 08 when the market crashed. No you didn't . You followed this stupid advice. You sold when you were down, just like you probably bought when the market was high. It was your own damn fault. The market was/is up since then, what, double? Triple? The only people who "lose" money have margin calls and /or placed their futures bets wrong. Just chill. Shit happens.

You are 100% right, I hear that all the time.

But to be fair, when you took bad advice to begin with, and your 65, in this situation getting smart is not a bad idea. Way too many people are over invested, and unqualified to invest in the mkt in this country, and one day a bear mkt will come, and stay. But the stock pumpers don’t care. Annuities etc get such a bad rap in this country but overseas they are pretty much all retirement age people are in. In chile your National SS equivalent is automatically annutized when you retire. It’s the law.

I’ve been telling people for two yrs, if you rode this mkt all the way back, and are nearing retirement, you’re greedy, or dumb to not lighten up.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

**SumJongGuy** · 12-25-2018, 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by jono

I know they're more educated and paying closer attention as a general rule, but if you're going to start taking your US history and constitution lessons from over-interested Canadians you should go whole hog: step back from the keyboard and just learn whatever you can. No need to post about it.

Don't make a fuck bit of difference where the constitutional lessons come from. If Trump and Pence go down next month, the Speaker of the House takes over. And, that is Nancy Pelosi starting as the new Speaker of the House next month.

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2018, 06:09 PM

Originally Posted by Bromontane

We are where we are for a lot of reasons.

And a lot of luck. When in history has a great power participated in two major wars with no direct loss to that country besides military damage? And then we all think that we're exceptional because we had such a head start into the late twentieth century while the rest of the world rebuilt. Now that they've caught up, some don't realize that we really aren't that special, but many others can't accept that. The Brits have the same issue, and their arrogance goes back much further. Good luck with that.

Did you really think China would be where they are now when Nixon visited? We're you born then? Don't underestimate those people.

**Toadman** · 12-25-2018, 07:36 PM

Originally Posted by Bromontane

China lacks the population growth (one child), faces harsh regional competition (constrained by Russia, Japan, Phillipines, Taiwan, India, Iran), a rapidly appreciating workforce (labor costs up 600% last few decades, now >Mexican), overdependence on exports whose safety is ensured by Americans, a host of domestic conflicts, and terrible geographic hurdles. As well as a zombie economy. The US is re-industrializing right now with best-in-world natural barriers, ports, inland shipping, allies next door, a competent and sophisticated workforce, the best navy with no local threats to prevent its deployment, etc. It's not an accident or a hiccup that the US is a magnet for international talent & commerce. It'll probably be that way until Bezos' AI-child destroys humanity.

China definitely has a social issue with the ratio of men to women. They have relaxed the one child policy. But it has created an issue over the past decades with the favoring of a male child over a female child. That seems to be held in check by the communist gov't.

When it comes to infrastructure, well the USA screwed the pooch with that one. The US lags big time when it comes to logistics efficiencies, Our ports? I don't think you have any clue in regards to how bad the US measures on through put with the modern ports in Europe and Asia. I spent 27 years of my career dealing with the bullshit that is the US port and rail infrastructure. I'll give you the short version; the US is waaay behind. ILA and ILWU unions have neutered attempts at getting a more efficient system. Class 1 railroads have done little in the way of upgrading their networks. Sure, Buffett has snagged a oligopoly class 1 BNSF company. He was smart. He knew he could get good returns with an inefficient company like the BNSF, because there isn't much competition. Our wonderful FTC and DOT hosed the US business community with the mergers of BN and SF along with the UP and SP.

China does have issues. I met with a economics analyst from Hong Kong a few weeks back, and he advised us of some of the internal issues that Xi is dealing with. GDP in China is fundamentally built on 3 pillars. Middle class spending, which is restrained now based on Trump's trade war. #2 asset growth. That's been curtailed also due to Trump's trade war. And 3rd RE appreciation. That has stalled. So, China too is seeing it's economic growth threatened. Over 500 companies that are affiliated with the auto industry have been allowed to fail by the Communist Chinese gov't. Xi si going to back communist gov't industries and companies Xi has also locked down on capital out flows. There are numerous Chinese owned factories that have opened up in 3rd world SE Asian countries. Xi has basically told those companies they have to make it on their own merits, and there will be no RMB (Yuan) allowed to flow out of China to support this companies.

Anyone who has been to mainland China lately will see the conspicuous consumption. That's being curtailed The emerging middle class are not too happy with the wealth of the connected show casing that wealth. I can say from my last trip to Shanghai how different it is from several years ago. The communist ideology can't coexist with capitalism. Xi will have to figure out how to do that tap dance for China to grow without social unrest in the future.

As for the stock market. I have no idea what the future holds. We have a very unpredictable POTUS in the WH.

**tbssux** · 12-25-2018, 09:43 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Dude, we didn't vote for him. Yeah, everybody likes tax cuts, but, c'mon.

Wealthy people did vote for Trump. Probably for tax cuts (or maybe for decreased regulation. Or perhaps his enlightened views toward women?). Whatever the reason, the top four brackets owe the bottom two brackets a big fucking apology at the moment:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ons-by-income/

**Canesfootball** · 12-25-2018, 09:59 PM

These guys have a great handle on what is going on globally and how the banking system works.
https://www.alhambrapartners.com/commentaryanalysis/

When guys like Drunkenmiller are saying the market is only going to return 0 to 5% per year for the next 5+ years you need to pay attention. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...nterview-video

**Canesfootball** · 12-25-2018, 10:06 PM

https://twitter.com/mnicoletos/statu...068633601?s=19

Great chart of the gdp of the world's economies since 1961. China is in a totally debt fueled bubble. Looks a lot like Japan in the 80's through the end of the 90's. China won't experience a western style debt crisis due to most of their debt being owned internally. But they will enter a long term no growth situation if they don't forgive all of the debt in the system. But in doing that they make it hard for any outside money to ever come back to China.

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2018, 10:26 PM

Originally Posted by tbssux

Wealthy people did vote for Trump. Probably for tax cuts (or maybe for decreased regulation. Or perhaps his enlightened views toward women?). Whatever the reason, the top four brackets owe the bottom two brackets a big fucking apology at the moment:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ons-by-income/

By "we", I meant CT.. and most of this region. If you want stats, check the electoral college by county.

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2018, 10:32 PM

Originally Posted by Bromontane

How capital works in a system like China's:

Attachment 261607

Tell you what. Take a train from Chicago to NYC, cab it to JFK, fly to Beijing, jump on a high speed train to Shanghai, and then get back to us about misappropriation of capital.

**iceman** · 12-25-2018, 10:55 PM

China used more concrete in 3 years than the US has used in its history.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmc.../#670cc9134131

**tbssux** · 12-26-2018, 12:19 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

By "we", I meant CT.. and most of this region. If you want stats, check the electoral college by county.

If you break down CT voters by income, you'd likely find wealthier CT voters going for Trump, lower income voters going for Hillary.
My comment was towards bankers (and lawyers and docs) in Greenwich, not TSA employees from Hartford.

So quit trying to obfuscate. Wealthy voted for Trump for tax cuts (wealthy evangelicals, for tax cuts and SCOTUS appointments.)
Those who voted for tax cuts and are losing money in market are reaping their just rewards now. Just like Bernie Bros who stayed home or voted for Jill fucking Stein.