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  1. #8051
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    15,344

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    I just think the P in PE gonna disappoint this year and multiple is already high. This theme is why I picked AMZN short. Costs going to rise more than expected. Stop at new highs and adjust with time.

  2. #8052
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    2,183
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I think Short amazon looks interesting. The blue van army is not going to end well. FedEx is struggling for a similar reason.

    I have a 30 day old order for mouthwash that still hasn’t been delivered. I get offered a refund tomorrow

    “We’re very sorry your delivery is late. If you have not received your package by today, you can come back here the next day for a refund or replacement.”




    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Amazon is at the bleeding edge of fuck you deal, retail culture. I don’t think that’s going to disappear until the economy tanks, and maybe not even then

  3. #8053
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Seattle, Wa
    Posts
    47
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I think Short amazon looks interesting. The blue van army is not going to end well. FedEx is struggling for a similar reason.
    AMZN keeps banging its head on $2000 for the last year and a half. One of these quarters they are going to exceed their revenue numbers significantly and AMZN will blow through that $2000 number. Do you want to bet against that happening at the end of this month?

  4. #8054
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    15,344
    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lavigne View Post
    AMZN keeps banging its head on $2000 for the last year and a half. One of these quarters they are going to exceed their revenue numbers significantly and AMZN will blow through that $2000 number. Do you want to bet against that happening at the end of this month?
    Never sell a triple top because there's no such thing? Sure.

    I would be nervous ahead of earnings if it were closer to an all time high but for right now i still like the risk reward on the trade. We'll see when we get closer to earnings. The low on 1/5 was $1880 so let's use that as timestamp for the short. It's $1883 today with stop at new highs. (New highs is a poor place for a stop but for this hypothetical it's fine)

    When the 20k blue vans have to start meeting safety requirements and regulation like Uber faces, especially in California, costs and scrutiny are going to rise more than anticipated. Amazon can't just wash their hands completely while continuing to union bust. I think it is good for FDX to get control of what they do best and step away from competing for last mile. Otoh, if a company is going to be rewarded for growing revenue in high margin businesses like cloud I'd go with GOOG or MSFT.

  5. #8055
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    262
    The music will keep playing until the Fed drops the other shoe

  6. #8056
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    15,344
    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    Amazon is at the bleeding edge of fuck you deal, retail culture. I don’t think that’s going to disappear until the economy tanks, and maybe not even then

    I'm talking stocks, not the business, it was the same with TSLA the other way. AMZN was $1600 less than a year ago and has underperformed the indexes and sector. A 50% correction of that move is $1750 which is an even money trade vs new high regardless of what the business does. IF the news fits my narrative and costs rise a test of $1600 is easy.

  7. #8057
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    15,344
    Quote Originally Posted by MCS5280 View Post
    The music will keep playing until the Fed drops the other shoe
    For the indexes, probably. APPL could go to $500 no problem. MSFT to $200. I wouldn't short either of those.

  8. #8058
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    38,262
    Yeah, you're good until November.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  9. #8059
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Haven Line heading north
    Posts
    2,716
    I have no idea what will end this, but we’re 12 years into one of the greatest rallies in history and stocks are still ripping higher? I’m sorry, but this is some bad juju.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  10. #8060
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    26,003
    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    I have no idea what will end this, but we’re 12 years into one of the greatest rallies in history and stocks are still ripping higher? I’m sorry, but this is some bad juju.
    It’s only rational to have a healthy fear of heights.
    StokePimpin' ain't easy

  11. #8061
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    slc
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    11,294
    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    I have no idea what will end this, but we’re 12 years into one of the greatest rallies in history and stocks are still ripping higher? I’m sorry, but this is some bad juju.
    I am not an economist, but: Interest rates are still at historic lows. There's few options available besides stocks that provide returns significantly above inflation. Until that changes that's where money will flow and prices will keep going up. How many clockwise turns do you have to make on that spigot before there's not enough flow to feed the beast and the whole thing collapses into itself like a dying star? The hell if I know.

  12. #8062
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    38,262
    Yup, bottom line, but where will all this money go with no inflation and low interest rates?

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  13. #8063
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    38,262
    X

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  14. #8064
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    slc
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    Remember pre-2008 when there were tons of online savings accounts that were yielding 4-5%, sometimes more if you had a large enough balance (I memba, I had one)? 4-5+%, fully liquid and FDIC insured. Good luck finding anything remotely like that today, any time in the last decade, or any time in the foreseeable future.

  15. #8065
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    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
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    38,262
    Real estate speculation only happening in certain markets, and many of them are back to bubble levels. The new tax bill has eliminated a lot of write-offs there.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  16. #8066
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    Big in Japan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dantheman View Post
    Remember pre-2008 when there were tons of online savings accounts that were yielding 4-5%, sometimes more if you had a large enough balance (I memba, I had one)? 4-5+%, fully liquid and FDIC insured. Good luck finding anything remotely like that today, any time in the last decade, or any time in the foreseeable future.
    Yup. If I could have safe, guaranteed 5% like then, I'd be there, along with millions of boomers and even the wealthy, who had a major chunk of their money in T bills and the like. The markets would crash.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  17. #8067
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    Jong Kong
    Posts
    87
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...art-2015-12-18

    The derivatives are comical..

    Sent from my SM-G950U using TGR Forums mobile app
    "Skiing is the easy part, Carl."

  18. #8068
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    15,344

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    FDX was wise to change course. Now AMZN needs them so they have some price stability.

  19. #8069
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    15,344

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dantheman View Post
    I am not an economist, but: Interest rates are still at historic lows. There's few options available besides stocks that provide returns significantly above inflation. Until that changes that's where money will flow and prices will keep going up. How many clockwise turns do you have to make on that spigot before there's not enough flow to feed the beast and the whole thing collapses into itself like a dying star? The hell if I know.
    This is why when the music stops it will be fast and harsh. Interest rates are low for a reason.

    I was watching Bloomberg Real Yield and three fixed income managers agreed on one thing. 10y UST goes to zero.

    Earnings consensus for 2020 is 8-10% growth this year. I don’t believe it.

    Risk adjusted forward return in stocks is way too high right now.

  20. #8070
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    15,344

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Howard been negative for a while but always a good listen. I’m risk averse like him.


    Oaktree’s Marks Says Odds Are Not in Investors’ Favor Right Now https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...ight-now-video

  21. #8071
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    Oct 2003
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    Big in Japan
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    Quote Originally Posted by m20adb View Post
    Take a look at two data points:

    1- Value of US commercial & residential real estate market 2010/2011/2012 (pick one year, doesn't matter)
    2 - Value of US commercial & residential real estate market @ end of 2019

    The problem is that real estate valuation changes induce the perception of wealth while actually taking inflationary credit from the whole country and pooling it up in hot markets. Some benefit, most lose purchasing power in housing & those two camps argue with each other about whether it's good or not. It's zero sum as no productivity gains result from the shifting of resources, they're just moved to different locations. And to the extent they're achieved through increasing leverage, they jeopardize the stability of the overall system.
    Certainly makes living in a nice ski town or beach place very expensive.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  22. #8072
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
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    Yeah, well, I'm an average schmoe and can't afford a forty year old condo in ski country, so, ya, assets propped.

    Fucking Jersey shore in a cool place is at least a half million. The Jersey shore. Those assets also propped by government policies for rich people.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  23. #8073
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
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    48,026
    well there's like 30 million people who live within ~3 hrs. of the jersey shore, and very limited coastline, and the beaches are actually nice, so it's not just the government proppping it up. Even if you couldn't get insurance at all people would pay money for it. Less money, but real money.

  24. #8074
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    The 8th best place in the LBP
    Posts
    3,007
    My in-laws just sold their empty lot in Ortley Beach for 400k. House got wiped out by Sandy and they could not afford to rebuild. It was a great place, I miss going there when we visit. Half block from the beach, prime.

  25. #8075
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
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    LV-426
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    16,236
    Quote Originally Posted by m20adb View Post
    There's that, but there's also the generalized impoverishing of the average American by using inflationary credit to prop up asset markets, dilute purchasing power & generally make regular life less attainable for each generation.
    When I read your posts, I can't help but add - at the end of each one -

    "PARKLIFE!"
    Quote Originally Posted by powder11 View Post
    if you have to resort to taking advice from the nitwits on this forum, then you're doomed.

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