Is the stock market going to tank?

**Cono Este** · 03-27-2020, 08:15 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

In 2009-2010 300 banks went bankrupt. It was almost a daily event. I have to think retail and restaurants will have the same fate. When the dominoes start falling it will happen fast. They were already weak from getting Amazon'd

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...3present)#2008

Four Seasons near me closed, laid off 300 people. No date to return.

Some incredibly bad things happening.

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**liv2ski** · 03-27-2020, 08:51 AM

Pretty much every restaurant and hotel in town is closed (big tourist town). Those guys are toast if this goes 2 months. We are going to see a bunch of Bk's and deaths from this.

**grapedrink** · 03-27-2020, 10:36 AM

i would imagine all tourism/travel related industries are toast for the rest of the year, entertainment (sports, shows, concerts), amusement parks, and movie theatre's. who's going to want to travel internationally anywhere this year, much less to the USA aka the global epicentre, or be in any kind of crowded space. hell, would nations even let their citizens travel to the US this summer? i would think at a minimum they would probably require a mandatory 14 day quarantine upon return, who's going to sign up for that? even restaurants and bars are going to take a huge prolonged hit. i probably do all of those things more than the average person, and on average spend 20+ days a year in the states as a tourist.. i've mentally written off the entire year as far as travel/entertainment.

but who knows, this post may age very poorly.

**skaredshtles** · 03-27-2020, 10:41 AM

Originally Posted by grapedrink

i would imagine all tourism/travel related industries are toast for the rest of the year, entertainment (sports, shows, concerts), amusement parks, and movie theatre's. who's going to want to travel internationally anywhere this year, much less to the USA aka the global epicentre, or be in any kind of crowded space. hell, would nations even let their citizens travel to the US this summer? i would think at a minimum they would probably require a mandatory 14 day quarantine upon return,

And they should probably be subject to a 14-day quarantine upon *entering* - so no sightseeing for 14-days, then a 14-day quarantine when returning to the home country. I'd wager NOBODY is going to sign up for that.

**SKIP IN7RO** · 03-27-2020, 10:42 AM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Pretty much every restaurant and hotel in town is closed (big tourist town). Those guys are toast if this goes 2 months. We are going to see a bunch of Bk's and deaths from this.

NYT "Restaurant analysts and operators have been quoting an estimate that 75 percent of the independent restaurants that have been closed to protect Americans from the coronavirus won’t make it."

That would just leave Blimpie's Subs in my town.

**GeezerSteve** · 03-27-2020, 10:44 AM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Pretty much every restaurant and hotel in town is closed (big tourist town). Those guys are toast if this goes 2 months. We are going to see a bunch of Bk's and deaths from this.

Oh yeah, good chance we're heading to all time high small biz BK filings. Some small biz LLCs and corps w/o principal personal guaranties will forego BK and just close their doors, but that opportunity will occur less than in the past because after 2008, nearly all creditors, suppliers and landlords have been routinely requiring personal guaranties. Many brick & mortar retail landlords will go down. Urban and small town landscapes will change. Amazon will increase market share. My semi-retirement plan was to avoid court appearances, but I got a feeling my future will include plenty o' appearances in BK court the next 3 years.

**grapedrink** · 03-27-2020, 10:52 AM

Originally Posted by skaredshtles

And they should probably be subject to a 14-day quarantine upon *entering* - so no sightseeing for 14-days, then a 14-day quarantine when returning to the home country. I'd wager NOBODY is going to sign up for that.

i just assumed trump would be dumb enough to not make that a requirement

**ncskier** · 03-27-2020, 10:52 AM

Originally Posted by grapedrink

i would imagine all tourism/travel related industries are toast for the rest of the year, entertainment (sports, shows, concerts), amusement parks, and movie theatre's. who's going to want to travel internationally anywhere this year, much less to the USA aka the global epicentre, or be in any kind of crowded space. hell, would nations even let their citizens travel to the US this summer? i would think at a minimum they would probably require a mandatory 14 day quarantine upon return, who's going to sign up for that? even restaurants and bars are going to take a huge prolonged hit. i probably do all of those things more than the average person, and on average spend 20+ days a year in the states as a tourist.. i've mentally written off the entire year as far as travel/entertainment.

but who knows, this post may age very poorly.

You're probably right because of the timing. My kids are out of school until a minimum of 5/15. I am not planning on a "summer vacation" just yet, because I have no idea if A) they will have to go back to school for some extended time into mid-june and B) Despite my job needing to travel, I am not exposing my family.
We have already shelved two ski trips. I had a friend say that demand is gone and not able to come back because it's like a haircut. If i have to skip this month, I won't get two haircuts next month. The barber has lost that revenue forever.
Now it's not quite that inelastic, but even if I go to SLC in july, I am not going to spend nearly the money to fish or hike as I would have skiing. So my dollars are gone.
I suspect people may spend their money closer to home but would you wan't to rent an airbnb in a month or two?

**Mazderati** · 03-27-2020, 10:56 AM

I posted a few days ago about a symptomatic physician in my wife's group being tested last Saturday. Today is day seven and still no result. A physician, who could be seeing patients, cannot get a test result in a week.

**GeezerSteve** · 03-27-2020, 10:57 AM

Originally Posted by Mazderati

I posted a few days ago about a symptomatic physician in my wife's group being tested last Saturday. Today is day seven and still no result. A physician, who could be seeing patients, cannot get a test result in a week.

That is fucked. HC workers in regular contact with patients should be the highest priority for testing.

**up an down** · 03-27-2020, 11:01 AM

Originally Posted by Mazderati

I posted a few days ago about a symptomatic physician in my wife's group being tested last Saturday. Today is day seven and still no result. A physician, who could be seeing patients, cannot get a test result in a week.

Don't forget..Trump is not responsible.

**Mazderati** · 03-27-2020, 11:33 AM

Shit. Posted in wrong thread.

**rideit** · 03-27-2020, 11:46 AM

Originally Posted by up an down

Don't forget..Trump is not responsible.

The buck stops...anywhere but here.

**Mr. Mike** · 03-27-2020, 11:48 AM

Originally Posted by grapedrink

i just assumed trump would be dumb enough to not make that a requirement

nah, he's smart when it comes to xenophobia. That's probably the one area where his self-assessment lines up with reality.

**Kevo** · 03-27-2020, 12:48 PM

Originally Posted by the propagandist formerly monikered brostoyevski

You might like this guy's stuff.

Watched the video and read his report. I like his stuff, but have no idea how to execute the long term volatility aspect of his portfolio. Sounds like that's a very active strategy that involves options trading up/down from current market positions at any given time.

Please correct me if I'm wrong. I'd love to buy a mutual fund or ETF that accounts for the long vol portion of his dragon portfolio.

**Kevo** · 03-27-2020, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by the propagandist formerly monikered brostoyevski

As far as I know you're right. There are volatility ETFs that can be really effective for short periods but the expense ratio likely erodes the benefit. He did reinforce the notion of a 20% gold position by saying it's a volatility hedge on its own. You could ask him directly though, there're many in similar positions.

Here is what it says in his report-

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I really wish those indices were available as ETFs. I can't find them with the research I've done so far.

**Cono Este** · 03-27-2020, 03:28 PM

The Global Pandemic risk factor.

I thought the airlines got hit hard after 911, but just look at them, and so many other businesses now.

I can’t help feel like this won’t change the rest of our lives.

What are the new longs?

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**iceman** · 03-27-2020, 03:38 PM

Barbed wire and tasers?

**Benny Profane** · 03-27-2020, 03:40 PM

Drone carrying lazers. Pew, pew.

**Name Redacted** · 03-27-2020, 03:42 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I can’t help feel like this won’t change the rest of our lives.

What are the new longs?

Ecolab- or anything cleaning and sanitizing related
Medical grade PPE of any type. Probably lots of new developing technology coming down the pike for this. Dental offices and other medical offices will not be able to function without a new paradigm in sanitization. Even nail salons, barber shops, the airlines, restaurants, public places will need to be stepping up cleaning protocols to give the public comfort in knowing that they are sanitary.

**skaredshtles** · 03-27-2020, 03:42 PM

Bootstraps

**iceman** · 03-27-2020, 03:42 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Drone carrying lazers.

Call me crazy but I think they'd work better the other way around.

**Benny Profane** · 03-27-2020, 03:44 PM

Originally Posted by GeezerSteve

Oh yeah, good chance we're heading to all time high small biz BK filings. Some small biz LLCs and corps w/o principal personal guaranties will forego BK and just close their doors, but that opportunity will occur less than in the past because after 2008, nearly all creditors, suppliers and landlords have been routinely requiring personal guaranties. Many brick & mortar retail landlords will go down. Urban and small town landscapes will change. Amazon will increase market share. My semi-retirement plan was to avoid court appearances, but I got a feeling my future will include plenty o' appearances in BK court the next 3 years.

I remember reading a piece about the guys that were unraveling Lehman after the crash, and one of them said that he had a job for ten years, it was so big and complex. That's a nice chunk of one's career. Well, just after the ten years is up, lookey here, a new vein in the gold mine, and it's a big one. Ten years more!

**gravitylover** · 03-27-2020, 04:10 PM

I like that Ecolab idea, let's talk about the "next thing" some more.

**SkiCougar** · 03-27-2020, 05:22 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

The Global Pandemic risk factor.

I thought the airlines got hit hard after 911, but just look at them, and so many other businesses now.

I can’t help feel like this won’t change the rest of our lives.

What are the new longs?

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bull bear tracker site has the doom calls up:

"SCPA’s April forecasts:
100%- relief rally will peak by April 8, 2020
100%- 2020 low will be breached by April 30, 2020
SCPA’s long term forecast is for all eight of the global indices to bottom between September and November of 2022. At the bottom the minimum decline will be 79% below the 2020 highs."

now that 79% is just throwing something up and seeing if it sticks, but hard to argue that we will not hit new lows by april 30, the fed and congress have shot their wads now and governors are still talking about keeping things shut until may.