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  1. #10176
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    9,462

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    The Global Pandemic risk factor.

    I thought the airlines got hit hard after 911, but just look at them, and so many other businesses now.

    I can’t help feel like this won’t change the rest of our lives.

    What are the new longs?


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  2. #10177
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    49,274
    Barbed wire and tasers?

  3. #10178
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,015
    Drone carrying lazers. Pew, pew.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  4. #10179
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    8,762
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    I can’t help feel like this won’t change the rest of our lives.

    What are the new longs?
    Ecolab- or anything cleaning and sanitizing related
    Medical grade PPE of any type. Probably lots of new developing technology coming down the pike for this. Dental offices and other medical offices will not be able to function without a new paradigm in sanitization. Even nail salons, barber shops, the airlines, restaurants, public places will need to be stepping up cleaning protocols to give the public comfort in knowing that they are sanitary.

  5. #10180
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    5,069
    Bootstraps

  6. #10181
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    49,274
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Drone carrying lazers.
    Call me crazy but I think they'd work better the other way around.

  7. #10182
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,015
    Quote Originally Posted by GeezerSteve View Post
    Oh yeah, good chance we're heading to all time high small biz BK filings. Some small biz LLCs and corps w/o principal personal guaranties will forego BK and just close their doors, but that opportunity will occur less than in the past because after 2008, nearly all creditors, suppliers and landlords have been routinely requiring personal guaranties. Many brick & mortar retail landlords will go down. Urban and small town landscapes will change. Amazon will increase market share. My semi-retirement plan was to avoid court appearances, but I got a feeling my future will include plenty o' appearances in BK court the next 3 years.
    I remember reading a piece about the guys that were unraveling Lehman after the crash, and one of them said that he had a job for ten years, it was so big and complex. That's a nice chunk of one's career. Well, just after the ten years is up, lookey here, a new vein in the gold mine, and it's a big one. Ten years more!

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  8. #10183
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Southeast New York
    Posts
    7,300
    I like that Ecolab idea, let's talk about the "next thing" some more.

  9. #10184
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Loveland, Chair 9.
    Posts
    4,454
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    The Global Pandemic risk factor.

    I thought the airlines got hit hard after 911, but just look at them, and so many other businesses now.

    I can’t help feel like this won’t change the rest of our lives.

    What are the new longs?


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    bull bear tracker site has the doom calls up:

    "SCPA’s April forecasts:
    100%- relief rally will peak by April 8, 2020
    100%- 2020 low will be breached by April 30, 2020
    SCPA’s long term forecast is for all eight of the global indices to bottom between September and November of 2022. At the bottom the minimum decline will be 79% below the 2020 highs."

    now that 79% is just throwing something up and seeing if it sticks, but hard to argue that we will not hit new lows by april 30, the fed and congress have shot their wads now and governors are still talking about keeping things shut until may.
    Eat em up Houston Cougars !

  10. #10185
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    13,138
    Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post
    At the bottom the minimum decline will be 79% below the 2020 highs." By april 30, the fed and congress have shot their wads now and governors are still talking about keeping things shut until may.
    You're giving me a boner man, stop it.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  11. #10186
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,205
    Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post
    bull bear tracker site has the doom calls up:
    Search: Michael Markowski fraud

  12. #10187
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    8,762
    OH! You thought that bailout was just for you? Gotta put a little honey on top for the guy who's gonna sign it.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/bonanza-r...122407900.html

  13. #10188
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    LV-426
    Posts
    16,666
    Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post
    bull bear tracker site has the doom calls up:

    "SCPA’s April forecasts:


    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Search: Michael Markowski fraud
    ^^^ This.
    Quote Originally Posted by powder11 View Post
    if you have to resort to taking advice from the nitwits on this forum, then you're doomed.

  14. #10189
    Join Date
    Apr 2019
    Location
    New Mexico
    Posts
    202
    even after crazy last month, Vail Resorts is still trading at 21 P/E wtf

  15. #10190
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,015
    Quote Originally Posted by Lvovsky View Post
    even after crazy last month, Vail Resorts is still trading at 21 P/E wtf
    The elites have just been saved with my and your money. Their playgrounds are safe from extinction.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  16. #10191
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    49,274
    Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post
    SCPA’s long term forecast is for all eight of the global indices to bottom between September and November of 2022. At the bottom the minimum decline will be 79% below the 2020 highs."
    So, Dow 5900? Hm.

  17. #10192
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    funland
    Posts
    4,648
    Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post
    bull bear tracker site has the doom calls up:

    "SCPA’s April forecasts:
    100%- relief rally will peak by April 8, 2020
    100%- 2020 low will be breached by April 30, 2020
    SCPA’s long term forecast is for all eight of the global indices to bottom between September and November of 2022. At the bottom the minimum decline will be 79% below the 2020 highs."

    now that 79% is just throwing something up and seeing if it sticks, but hard to argue that we will not hit new lows by april 30, the fed and congress have shot their wads now and governors are still talking about keeping things shut until may.
    There's a lot of times I have disagreed with you... but I keep seeing the movement of the market and asking myself "What the fuck is happening that I am not seeing?" and while I know I am a dumb motherfucker, I just can't get away from making the determination that this market has way more down to go.

    edit: and I have bet accordingly. If I am wrong, I will definitely get taught a lesson.

  18. #10193
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,015

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  19. #10194
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,015
    Que that scene from Apocalypse Now.

    https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...iter-1-2020-03

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  20. #10195
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    351
    Quote Originally Posted by Lone Star View Post
    There's a lot of times I have disagreed with you... but I keep seeing the movement of the market and asking myself "What the fuck is happening that I am not seeing?" and while I know I am a dumb motherfucker, I just can't get away from making the determination that this market has way more down to go.

    edit: and I have bet accordingly. If I am wrong, I will definitely get taught a lesson.
    Bear in mind that in the 2007/2008 market, it took quite a while for conditions on the ground (collapse of the mortgage industry) to actually greatly affect the market. Even after Bear Stearns got rescued in March 2008, the market stabilized and started climbing again. It took several more months before the real crash happened. But it had all been artificially propped up since 2007, when the mortgages started collapsing. So these things can take a while to play out. I am in your camp, I think we haven't seen the floor yet.

  21. #10196
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    the ham
    Posts
    7,529
    Add in that the actual human crisis isn't even half over.

  22. #10197
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    2,370
    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Striker View Post
    Add in that the actual human crisis isn't even half over.
    The consumer fiscal crisis is just picking up steam in China
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...arted-in-china

  23. #10198
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    1,021
    I was all set to buy some ProShares inverse etf shares.. Then I find out today that Vanguard does not allow the purchase of inverse or leveraged etfs... At least not in the
    IRA accounts....damnit!
    Last edited by up an down; 03-29-2020 at 01:22 PM.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  24. #10199
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    13,138
    Quote Originally Posted by Falcon3 View Post
    Bear in mind that in the 2007/2008 market, it took quite a while for conditions on the ground (collapse of the mortgage industry) to actually greatly affect the market. Even after Bear Stearns got rescued in March 2008, the market stabilized and started climbing again. It took several more months before the real crash happened. But it had all been artificially propped up since 2007, when the mortgages started collapsing. So these things can take a while to play out. I am in your camp, I think we haven't seen the floor yet.
    Name:  2008.JPG
Views: 270
Size:  55.2 KB
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  25. #10200
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    1,618
    Putting all of our allocations into cash tomorrow. Lost 9% from the peak and i don't care if we make it back. At least I don't have to think about it anymore.

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