Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

If retired person is in the right mix they didn't lose much as of today. 70/30 mix
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...formance/vtinx

[MultiVerse]

Why? Look at today's market. What's the problem? This is a prime example of capitalism at it's most evil. The WS gamblers are salivating at an even cheaper workforce and real estate in the near future.

Apples and oranges. Even a theoretically less costly labor force only goes so far. The problem with the "capitalism at it's most evil" narrative is it can apply to any setting to argue both for and against any policy. It’s like describing everything in terms of being God’s will — unfalsifiable.

[Cono Este]

If retired person is in the right mix they didn't lose much as of today. 70/30 mix
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...formance/vtinx

Who the fuck would continue to work, with a yr or two timeline, for the mkt to “come back”? I told him he was still up a lot the last three yrs?

Just another bozo I will piss off in the lockeroom with a snide remark.




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[Kevo]

There's two trailer parks in my town. One is about a 1/4 mile east of my neighborhood and has ~100 lots. Over a dozen trailers have come on the market in the past week. Most are FSBO. Their residents have lost their hourly jobs and are going to lose everything else, not that anybody ever has equity in a depreciating mobile home. The town is using a disaster relief fund to buy food from local restaurants and give out free food to people in need, but that fund isn't very big and will run out soon.

Meanwhile, someone just closed on a house in my neghborhood that was for sale for $689k and sold for $720k in a weekend.

[GeezerSteve]

If retired person is in the right mix they didn't lose much as of today. 70/30 mix
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...formance/vtinx

Largely true, although the weird tracking of corporate bonds and equity markets -- both the up and the down -- kinda threw a wrench in the classic 100 - your age mix. We have been more conservative than that -- more like 90 or 85 minus our age.

[heckacali]

There's two trailer parks in my town. One is about a 1/4 mile east of my neighborhood and has ~100 lots. Over a dozen trailers have come on the market in the past week. Most are FSBO. Their residents have lost their hourly jobs and are going to lose everything else, not that anybody ever has equity in a depreciating mobile home. The town is using a disaster relief fund to buy food from local restaurants and give out free food to people in need, but that fund isn't very big and will run out soon.

Meanwhile, someone just closed on a house in my neghborhood that was for sale for $689k and sold for $720k in a weekend.

You live in Truckee also, eh?

[Cono Este]

There's two trailer parks in my town. One is about a 1/4 mile east of my neighborhood and has ~100 lots. Over a dozen trailers have come on the market in the past week. Most are FSBO. Their residents have lost their hourly jobs and are going to lose everything else, not that anybody ever has equity in a depreciating mobile home. The town is using a disaster relief fund to buy food from local restaurants and give out free food to people in need, but that fund isn't very big and will run out soon.

Meanwhile, someone just closed on a house in my neghborhood that was for sale for $689k and sold for $720k in a weekend.

I’m actually looking at property, and inventory is still low and being snapped up quickly.


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[Benny Profane]

There's two trailer parks in my town. One is about a 1/4 mile east of my neighborhood and has ~100 lots. Over a dozen trailers have come on the market in the past week. Most are FSBO. Their residents have lost their hourly jobs and are going to lose everything else, not that anybody ever has equity in a depreciating mobile home. The town is using a disaster relief fund to buy food from local restaurants and give out free food to people in need, but that fund isn't very big and will run out soon.

Meanwhile, someone just closed on a house in my neghborhood that was for sale for $689k and sold for $720k in a weekend.

That's another example of how capitalism is evil, although I would think that person who just bought the house wan't too bright. Who in their right mind would overbid on a home that essentially is overpriced in the first place at a time like this? What the fuck is the rush? In six months to a year, the world is going to be very different, and I highly doubt homes will be even more expensive outside of trophy neighborhoods.

Something tells me the homeless issue in Denver and SF, among other cities, is going to be that much worse in short time.

[jackstraw]

If retired person is in the right mix they didn't lose much as of today. 70/30 mix
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...formance/vtinx

I'm not that age, but I'm relatively conservative just because. I'm down 8% ytd.

[LeeLau]

60+ age group should have had large cash/CD/T-bill position before the Covid-19 crash. 60+ boomers who bought into equity markets after 2008 and failed to rebalance via profit taking every year or so after 2015 did it wrong.

Bingo.

[ncskier]

If you have the expertise, sure, but if you don't, you're going to be the bag holder.

I’ve owned plenty on the past. I just didn’t see anything worth owning the past 5-6 years. Nothing to seemed to pencil out.


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[Kevo]

That's another example of how capitalism is evil, although I would think that person who just bought the house wan't too bright. Who in their right mind would overbid on a home that essentially is overpriced in the first place at a time like this? What the fuck is the rush? In six months to a year, the world is going to be very different, and I highly doubt homes will be even more expensive outside of trophy neighborhoods.

Something tells me the homeless issue in Denver and SF, among other cities, is going to be that much worse in a short time.

I walked by the house in question after the new owners took possession. Lots of toddler-aged toys in the yard. Best guess- people do all kinds of stupid shit "for baby".

Homelessness might take off but first, a landlord would need to convince a county sheriff to evict people. That's not going to happen anytime soon.

I’m actually looking at property, and inventory is still low and being snapped up quickly.


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I'm still thinking about picking up an investment property in the mountains. If summer 2020 and ski season 20/21 gets canceled there is going to be a ton of desperate second home owners.

You live in Truckee also, eh?

I live in Golden, CO but I bet the same story is playing out in similar places all over the country right now.

[altacoup]

Hey, fuck, I'm cool. I've got mine. I've even made a little money out of all of this. I live literally on a hill in a prosperous town filled with the top 5% and patrolled by a very well paid police force. Just bring back skiing and Euro travel and no whoop. Good luck to the rest of you.

That’s why I always knew you were a maga hat douche bag.

Based on how round you look in your avatar I’m saying you’re the father of the two.

[4matic]

I'm still thinking about picking up an investment property in the mountains. If summer 2020 and ski season 20/21 gets canceled there is going to be a ton of desperate second home owners.
.

Without a vaccine any flare up next winter will put the season at risk quickly. Can companies risk corporate housing?

MTN up 6% today seems optimistic

[Benny Profane]

That’s why I always knew you were a maga hat douche bag.

Based on how round you look in your avatar I’m saying you’re the father of the two.

You can see my butt in that little picture? Damn. I knew that parka made it look big.

[Benny Profane]

I walked by the house in question after the new owners took possession. Lots of toddler-aged toys in the yard. Best guess- people do all kinds of stupid shit "for baby".

Homelessness might take off but first, a landlord would need to convince a county sheriff to evict people. That's not going to happen anytime soon.

Denver used to be quite the boom and bust town before they diversified out of fossil fuels, but you guys have had quite the decade , after you somehow avoided getting sucked into the housing bubble. You really have to wonder if that's substainable in a 20% UE world. Great place to live, but you gotta have a decent two income household to support high seven figure house prices. I live in a town that is pretty prosperous, but, a lot of homes are still underwater or treading water from '08 here. Sure hope those mommies that forced their men to buy those expensive playpens can deal with the kids and aren't thinking they can retire on the appreciation. Doubtful they'll see much for a decade after this. Great time to sign a lease right now, since landlords would be happy to see you, and wait to see how the wind blows. It's going to be tough for a while. Just talked to my accountant, and his business clients are freaking, and he is too, because they pay him.

And, I'm assuming that most of the homeless roaming downtown Denver aren't middle class people foreclosed upon, but those trailer park types mentioned who are one missed payment from the sidewalk. Lots of them.

[XXX-er]

so the pension fund was pretty much 100% fully funded so I'm assuming that should be OK ?

I got funds that obviously invest in stock which are down 30% right now, but I don't hold any stocks and the cash still seems to be cash

[Harvey44]

I'm wondering if the 60+ age group that over-invested in the equities and high yield market after 2008 in order to try and get their portfolio back to 2006 levels, will now embrace cash a bit more in the future? Or will they return with gusto again and try to recoup these latest losses?

61.5 here. Spent my whole investment life (started at 28) with a 95/5 split, and woke up one day in 2016, scared, realizing my timeline was no longer "infinite." Went to 60/40 in one day, the only rebalance I ever did. Never stopped buying, most of whatever I've made was made by continuing to buy through the crashes.

I don't know shit about shit. Don't own anything individual stocks, just ultra low cost funds (VG), but I never sold anything ever, beyond that one rebalance. Wouldn't have the first idea about how to short. My buddy made 400k doing it last month, and recommended I do the same. Not for me.

My biz partner, same age and income as me for the last 30 years, choked in 2008, moved to cash at the bottom and is worth about a 1/3 of what I got.

Read a John Bogle book when I was young and made it my religion. Be interesting to see what brand of dog food I get to eat in retirement. I'm calling it at 65, that was always the bar, and I ain't letting em move it on me. Want to ski while I still can.

After yesterday down about 10% from the peak.

[liv2ski]

I'm still thinking about picking up an investment property in the mountains. If summer 2020 and ski season 20/21 gets canceled there is going to be a ton of desperate second home owners.

I have always wanted a place up at Mammoth. During the last implosion a nice 1bdrm / 1bath place that was 800 sqft sold for $125k at the low. Now more like $300k. Is it possible it gets cut in half again or $150k??? Who knows, but assume yes. So monthly expenses are $150 property tax, $40 insurance and $600 HOA fees for about $800 per month or $9,600 a year. I can rent a place for that amount for 4 months in peak season without doing the $150k cash investment. I think I will just rent and fuck owning it unless I win the lotto.

[Benny Profane]

I have always wanted a place up at Mammoth. During the last implosion a nice 1bdrm / 1bath place that was 800 sqft sold for $125k at the low. Now more like $300k. Is it possible it gets cut in half again or $150k??? Who knows, but assume yes. So monthly expenses are $150 property tax, $40 insurance and $600 HOA fees for about $800 per month or $9,600 a year. I can rent a place for that amount for 4 months in peak season without doing the $150k cash investment. I think I will just rent and fuck owning it unless I win the lotto.

Two big unknowns. Special assesments for major repairs of an older (70s-80s) condo complex (and resistance from absentee owners for repairs), and the assumption that the rental market will be so robust in a challenged market for travel.
Is Mammoth more of a local (L.A. and S.F.) market? That could be good for your plan, because less airline dependant.

[up an down]

Mark Hulberts latest article..... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...?mod=home-page. ..... Mark Hulbert
Opinion: Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it
Published: April 9, 2020 at 2:43 p.m. ET
By Mark Hulbert
295
U.S. market history points to a final bottom in Aug

[Benny Profane]

Mark Hulberts latest article..... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...?mod=home-page. ..... Mark Hulbert
Opinion: Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it
Published: April 9, 2020 at 2:43 p.m. ET
By Mark Hulbert
295
U.S. market history points to a final bottom in Aug

The problem with historical correlations is the staggering UE numbers and Fed intervention now, in such a short time frame. There is no precedent.

[up an down]

The problem with historical correlations is the staggering UE numbers and Fed intervention now, in such a short time frame. There is no precedent.

True.. I agree that 2008 and 2020 are different from the past bear markets... but historical patterns can be similar.. especially behavior patterns.

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[up an down]

True.. I agree that 2008 and 2020 are different from the past bear markets... but historical patterns can be similar.. especially behavior patterns.

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Another good article. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...lapse-k8s8guo6

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[Ted Striker]

Series of step downs or slow erosion?