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  1. #8226
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
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    Loveland, Chair 9.
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    4,902
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Testing low end of the support range now at 3200. 10Y note right on all time low of 1.32%.
    given today with no reversal of two days down 1100 dow points, i'd bet 200 MDA tested within a month, there's no sign anywhere that the virus is being curtailed and economic affects just starting.
    TGR forums cannot handle SkiCougar !

  2. #8227
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    7,919
    I think a lot of people would disagree that putting up the capital (and taking all the risk of ruin), for a business to then use to be successful, is unearned income.

    Just because someone didn't sweat while working doesn't mean the money was unearned.

    Of course, there are exceptions to the above, but the general point stands.
    Live Free or Die

  3. #8228
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    19,814
    Quote Originally Posted by shroom View Post
    still trying to understand what the point of this stock market thing is besides aggregation iof wealth.
    Liquidity of assets is important. The ability to buy and sell cheaply and freely.

    I agree with you in that the nature of IPO's has changed. It used to be we raised capital to invest in early adopter businesses. Now it's to cash out early private investors and create "liquididty events."

  4. #8229
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    19,814
    Another big problem is automated trading. Look at December 2018 when the whole thing unraveled on basically nothing other than a few fed words. Momentum trading feeds on itself. If it starts melting the fed will have to act because there is no other way to stop it.

  5. #8230
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
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    13,294

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by ncskier View Post
    Why so angry? Markets go up, markets go down. If those old rich white dudes as you described where my dad, I wouldn’t be happy seeing them upset. How do you know they aren’t donating tons of appreciated shares to charities or using the cash flow to care for an aging spouse with Alzheimer’s. Being happy because you like to be a contrarian doesn’t make you smart it makes you an asshole.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Fuck that man. Nothing is free. Volatility is the price. Can’t handle it, should have never been in. Making mkts in 2001, I was the Enron option specialist among other issues, so take me with a grain of salt.

    Some dude old dude changed the channel on me the other day and when I told him off, he made some a joke how “money is everything” and walked off.

    Amateurs


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  6. #8231
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    Years ago 1-2% moves DAILY were common. We would test both sides of unchanged in search of price discovery all the time. Stocks have gone so far so fast that point moves have sticker shock. 1000 dow points aren't what is used to be. It's a difficult adjustment for sure.

    In 1987 500 points was 22% of the Dow Index value. We got that in one day. Today that would be 6000 Dow points.

  7. #8232
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
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    Loveland, Chair 9.
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    4,902
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Another big problem is automated trading. Look at December 2018 when the whole thing unraveled on basically nothing other than a few fed words. Momentum trading feeds on itself. If it starts melting the fed will have to act because there is no other way to stop it.
    that is entirely true.

    I shorted that early and rode it down(it was fantastic), it was govt intervention that reversed it at the rate it did. sure, it might have reversed on its own; but its speed of recovery was all because of intervention(unfortunately it was during the Christmas holiday so my availability to ride both sides was muted)
    TGR forums cannot handle SkiCougar !

  8. #8233
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Haven Line heading north
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    2,944
    Quote Originally Posted by Harvey44 View Post
    He moved it all at once?

    Brilliant IMHO.
    This will be my concern if the market continues to sell off. Folks like Kevo's parents rotating out of stocks 3-5 years earlier than expected as the rally runs out of steam. If I was in my 60's and had a high concentration of my wealth in the stock market, I am enjoying my historic good luck and calling it a day. I'm not going to risk a 20% drawdown for limited upside return.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  9. #8234
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    Mar 2006
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    19,814
    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    This will be my concern if the market continues to sell off. Folks like Kevo's parents rotating out of stocks 3-5 years earlier than expected as the rally runs out of steam. If I was in my 60's and had a high concentration of my wealth in the stock market, I am enjoying my historic good luck and calling it a day. I'm not going to risk a 20% drawdown for limited upside return.
    Like Benny says. The returns are better in stocks.

  10. #8235
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    Mar 2006
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    19,814
    Trying to hold 3200~. A weak close today is trouble. I might sell some bonds today to raise a little cash.

  11. #8236
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    United States of Aburdistan
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    7,281
    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    I'm not going to risk a 20% drawdown for limited upside return.
    Happened to my FIL 10-ish years ago, right as he retired early. It all came back and more.

  12. #8237
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    Mar 2006
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    19,814
    I don't consider 20% a large risk in stocks. If fear of a 20% drawdown scares you own too much stock. I don't own much stock because I can't stomach a 20% drawdown and also don't need that much risk either.

  13. #8238
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    Mar 2006
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    19,814
    Quote Originally Posted by muted View Post
    Happened to my FIL 10-ish years ago, right as he retired early. It all came back and more.
    that was a 60% drawdown fwiw.

  14. #8239
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    Mar 2006
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    /\absolute elephant in the room for so many reasons.

  15. #8240
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    Mar 2006
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    Russell 2000 leading the way lower today by a lot. That's a bad sign.

  16. #8241
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    Jan 2010
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    your vacation
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    Quote Originally Posted by MiCol View Post
    can you comment on trades like plumbing? reason, i was going to do a spec project in breck in 2016 and i was quoted $750 a hole. i got into a battle with engineering and had to take it to county commission...by the time i prevailed it was like a year later, and i had one quote for plumbing as high as $2,250 a hole...where is this number currently?...just curious... i ended up scrapping the project and selling the lot...peak 7
    $1,500.00 per drain is standard
    subs are at the gouging point right now because they have hundreds of requests for bids no labor etc
    which sucks for contractors and homeowners, subs I have been working with for 10 plus years are fair but new to me subs send out the fu price
    got a foundation quote last fall it was twice the normal cost
    and yeah, peak 7 don't get me started and the county gov't sorry you got caught up in their bs, been there done that too

    oh and the stock market.............. propped up by huge debt false hopes companies paying too much to buy other companies just to raise their on paper value but cutting hundreds of jobs and businesses not making any money it can't last forever its all a sham because of cheap loans

  17. #8242
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    Mar 2006
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    From the January 2018 peak to today the annualized rate of return on the SP 500 is about 5%.

  18. #8243
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    Oct 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    that was a 60% drawdown fwiw.
    And then a 300% bounce.

  19. #8244
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    And then a 300% bounce.
    A 50% drawdown requires 100% rally to break even.

  20. #8245
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    Jan 2007
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    Upstate
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    A 50% drawdown requires 100% rally to break even.

  21. #8246
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    Mar 2006
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    Interesting that gold is down 2%.

  22. #8247
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    13,654
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    A 50% drawdown requires 100% rally to break even.
    Math Level: Wizard


  23. #8248
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    Mar 2006
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    It took 14 years for the SP500 to get back to it's dotcom high.

  24. #8249
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Math Level: Wizard

    Sometimes it that simple.

  25. #8250
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    Dec 2005
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    STL
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    And then a 300% bounce.
    Benny.

    But will you be alive to see it?

    Respectfully.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

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